Knicks vs. Spurs prediction, odds, schedule, keys to series for 2026 NBA Finals

The Knicks haven’t been to the Finals since 1999 and haven’t won it all since 1973. After a rocky start in the first round against the Hawks in which they lost two out of their first three games, they’ve been on one of the most dominant postseason runs of all time. They swept their opponents through the last two rounds and have won in blowouts nine times during their current 11-game winning streak. 

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The Spurs beat that 1999 Knicks team in the Finals and have won four more championships since then, the most recent coming in 2014. They have the pedigree, and they will have the best player in this series in Victor Wembanyama. 

Despite their youth and a loss in this same matchup in the NBA Cup Finals, San Antonio will be favored in the betting markets. New York won’t be a total walkover though. They have real avenues to pull off the upset due to some matchups in their favor. 

Here are the keys to the series and what I think will happen.

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Knicks vs. Spurs prediction

The Knicks look great now, but they’ve had periods during the regular season where they were very shaky. They’ve ironed out those kinks, playing more through Karl-Anthony Towns and getting much better defense out of him too. Coach Mike Brown seems to have finally figured out the balance between using Towns as a passing hub and utilizing Jalen Brunson’s on-ball mastery. 

The Spurs pose a much bigger threat though than the Cavs, Sixers, and Hawks did. Wembanyama has been unstoppable, and nobody has been able to score when he’s been in the paint.

The Knicks have unique personnel to combat the Spurs. Towns has been a much better decision-maker during these playoffs and his ability to shoot can drag Wembanyama away from the paint. The Spurs have generally opted to put smaller players on Towns and have Wembanyama guard a less threatening shooter. Towns will have to punish those smaller defenders in order for the Knicks to stand a chance.

Mitchell Robinson will also be a key to this series. Wembanyama has struggled with his strength and offensive rebounding prowess. 

OG Anunoby is the Knicks’ last secret weapon. As pointed out by analyst Caitlin Cooper, nobody has guarded Wembanyama better than Anunoby. 

Despite those edges and the Knicks’ dominance over the Spurs during the regular season, the Spurs are a better team on paper. They have pesky defensive guards who can slow down Jalen Brunson, and they have the best player on the planet in Wembanyama. 

Prediction: Spurs in seven

SN NBA AWARDS: POY (Victor Wembanyama) | ROY (Kon Knueppel) | COY (Joe Mazzulla) | All-NBA teams

Knicks vs. Spurs betting odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

• Spurs -220, Knicks +180

The Spurs open as favorites to win the NBA Finals, but the Knicks aren’t far behind. San Antonio is -220 to win its first title in 12 years, with New York available at +180 to pull off a mild upset.

Knicks vs. Spurs regular season series

The Knicks have the edge against the Spurs this season, beating them two out of three times. 

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• December 16, 2025 (NBA Cup Final): Knicks 124, Spurs 113
• December 31, 2025: Spurs 134, Knicks 132
• March 1, 2026: Knicks 114, Spurs 89

These two teams first matched up in an entertaining NBA Cup Finals. Wembanyama played an emotional game after having learned earlier that his grandmother had passed away. He was returning from injury and limited to just 25 minutes and 18 points. 

The rematch came a few weeks later. Julian Champagnie exploded for a career-high 36 points and 11 3’s. Wemby was again limited by an injury, scoring 31 points in 24 minutes before missing the last 11 minutes with a leg injury. 

The last of these games was a blowout. The Knicks snapped the Spurs’ 11-game winning streak, helped by 25 points from Mikal Bridges, 24 from Brunson, and 14 points from reserve Mo Diawara off the bench. 

David Richard-Imagn Images

Knicks vs. Spurs key storylines

How effective can OG Anunoby be on Victor Wembanyama? 

Anunoby is probably going to get the primary matchup on Wembanyama. Per the league’s tracking data, Wemby is only 5-of-16 from the field when Anunoby has guarded him throughout his career. Most of those attempts have been from 3, where Wemby is just 1-of-8. 

Anunoby has generally done an excellent job of keeping Wembanyama out of the paint, using his physicality and lower center of gravity. That also allows the Knicks to bring help with their centers, which has become one of the more common ways to try and slow Wemby down. 

When Wembanyama catches the ball close to the basket, the Spurs have been a different type of team. His height is pretty much unstoppable when he gets near the rim. When he’s been pushed away from the paint, he’s been far less effective. Anunoby will have to toe the line between what is and isn’t called as a foul. 

How much damage can Mitchell Robinson do?

Robinson was the X-factor in the NBA Cup Finals, grabbing 10 offensive rebounds in just 18 minutes of play. He’s a much better defender and rim protector than Towns, who to his credit has also been improved on that end of the floor during the team’s playoff run. 

The Knicks are going to need Robinson to step up again, but it’s unclear what they will get out of him. He broke the pinky finger in his shooting hand and had surgery on it right before the start of the Finals. Even more concerning is that he’s been largely ineffective in the playoffs due to his ghastly 30.2 percent from the line. Teams have become much more aggressive about intentionally fouling him, and he’s wilted under the increased pressure of the playoffs. 

When Robinson is hitting his free throws, his rebounding and rim protection is impactful enough to neutralize Wembanyama, who is too skinny to keep him off the glass. He can be a serious problem or a nonfactor, depending on if he can get rid of his demons at the line. 

Which version of Josh Hart do the Knicks get? 

Hart has looked unplayable at times and been the reason for wins at others. His all-around hustle, physicality, and playmaking should translate well against a Spurs defense where every edge has to be fought over, but his shot will be his most important skill. 

Hart’s 3-pointer comes and goes. He’s hit on just 30.3 percent of those looks in the playoffs. Wembanyama is probably going to be guarding him and sagging way off him, conceding those open looks. If Hart drains the open ones, as he did during the regular season where he was a much better 41.3 percent from deep, then that strategy no longer becomes viable. If he continues to struggle, then the Knicks won’t be able to score effectively with Wemby camped out in the paint. 

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Knicks vs. Spurs schedule

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