Minnesota Lawmakers Approve Ban on Prediction Markets, Await Governor’s Signature
Minnesota has moved closer to making history, with lawmakers sending a public safety bill that includes a ban on prediction markets to Governor Tim Walz.
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The measure, which can be found in Senate File 4760, would mark the first time a US. state has explicitly outlawed these platforms through legislation. The House approved the conference committee report with a 100–32 vote, while the Senate followed with a 57–9 tally.
A standalone bill that would have banned both prediction markets and sweepstakes casinos had earlier cleared the Sneate but was not scheduled for a House vote. However, the language from that bill was folded into the broader SF 4760, which also covers theft and fraud policies, impaired driving, and other public safety issues.
If Walz signs the bill, operators would be barred from offering trades on sports, politics, pop culture, and other events starting August 1st, 2026.
Prediction market operation would be a felony under new law
Minnesota’s new legislation does more than restrict prediction markets, it criminalizes them. The bill gives the state authority to issue cease‑and‑desist orders against platforms found operating within its borders.
Any operator or individual who receives such an order can request a hearing, but continuing to run the service would expose them to felony charges.
Senator Ron Latz’s measure defines prediction markets broadly, describing them as any “system that allows consumers to place a wager on the future outcome of a specified event that is not determined or affected by the performance of the parties to the contract.”
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The law goes further by treating event contracts as bets when they involve compensation tied to chance, whether linked to securities, commodities, or other outcomes. SF 4760 bans markets from offering contracts on a wide range of subjects, including wars, terrorism, health crises, elections, court cases, weather events, sports, and even pop culture milestones.
Hosting or advertising such platforms would be considered a felony under Minnesota law, making the state the first to impose criminal penalties on prediction market activity.
Potential legal battles on the way if bill passes
If Minnesota’s prediction market ban becomes law, federal lawsuits are almost certain to follow. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates these platforms at the federal level, has long argued that states cannot interfere with its authority.
The agency has already clashed with attorneys general and gaming regulators in other jurisdictions, insisting that prediction markets fall under its exclusive oversight.
Major operators such as Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com are also not new to these lawsuits, with more than a dozen cases underway across the country where states treat their services as illegal gambling.
Last week, a federal judge blocked Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against KalshiEX LLC, ruling that Congress gave the CFTC sole authority over swaps and event contracts. That decision, backed by the Department of Justice, highlights the kind of legal precedent Minnesota could face if its ban is signed into law.
Source: SBC America
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