AFL teams that CANNOT win the 2026 premiership

We are a third of the way through the AFL season — providing a decent form guide to where every team is at in 2026.

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The top six looks fairly set at this stage, with Sydney, Fremantle and Hawthorn leading the way, more than a win ahead of fourth.

Is your AFL team still in the premiership race?

The Sporting News analyses which clubs cannot be the AFL grand final winner in 2026.

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Gold Coast Suns

The sum of the parts to win a premiership might be cooking at the Gold Coast but this list has shown that it isn’t ready to win a flag this year.

Comprehensive defeats to premiership contenders Sydney and Hawthorn have signalled where the Suns are currently at — while an MCG loss to Melbourne are showed their vulnerabilities.

There is no doubt Gold Coast will make the finals but another 12 months of building — and probable finals heartbreak — will steel the club for a 2027 charge,

North Melbourne

It’s been great to see the improvement of the Kangaroos with four wins already from their eight matches.

But losses in three of their last four games to finals contenders Brisbane, GWS and Geelong show where North Melbourne are positioned.

They should be targeting a wildcard berth in 2026 and then with natural improvement and some smart recruiting… top eight in 2027.

Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs started the season 4-0 and looked every bit a premiership contender with their performances.

But injuries have completely cruelled that notion and they have lost all four games since their 100 per cent start.

Without Sam Darcy and a heap of fitness issues for several key players, the Bulldogs might figure in finals, but winning the big one is going to be too big a challenge.

Melbourne

Melbourne have arguably been the best team to watch as a neutral supporters with their scintillating, attacking football.

But the balance between attack and defence is still in the early days with new coach Steven King.

With the attacking endeavour, we might see the Demons squeeze into the wildcard places but they don’t have the defensive stability to challenge the best at the business time.

Collingwood

The Magpies are just hanging in there at the moment — which is probably a legacy to the experience the team has gained in past years.

How they managed to get a result against Hawthorn was truly extraordinary with the balance of play ridiculously in the Hawks favour.

There is no doubt Nick Daicos elevates this team but with Collingwood a good chance to finish out of the top four, there is no way he can do it in four or five cut-throat finals.

Port Adelaide

Is there a bigger Jekyll and Hyde team currently?

Lose to West Coast at Adelaide Oval but then beat Geelong comfortably at the same venue and challenge Hawthorn in Melbourne.

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The Power can be happy with where they are at considering many tipped them for a bottom four berth — but they are extremely unlikely to play finals.

St Kilda

The Saints have improved and played some good football this season, but they don’t have the firepower to trouble the big teams regularly.

The goal will be to finish in the top 10, gain some finals experience and then aim for a better result in 2027.

But it’s difficult to see them suddenly becoming a contender at this stage of their list build.

GWS Giants

GWS absolutely should be aiming for finals and further success with the current list, but injuries have cruelled their chances.

Long term injuries to Tom Green and Josh Kelly have significantly derailed their midfield, while a heap of key players can’t seem to stay fit including Jesse Hogan, Sam Taylor and Brent Daniels.

There just seems to be a different aura around the Giants this season, than in previous years, and it’s going to be even more difficult for them to challenge.

West Coast

The Eagles just need to keep building and try to unearth some exciting talent.

There have been some signs this season from no.1 pick Willem Duursma and fellow draftee Josh Lindsay, but aside from Harley Reid, there isn’t too much to get you out of your seat.

Maybe it was the wrong move to target the likes of Baker, Owies, Graham etc?

Carlton

Carlton would probably go close to winning the AFL premiership — if games only went for the first half.

It’s probably time for a full reset at the Blues, although it’s not a great time to do it with compromised drafts fast coming.

This upcoming draft and trade period could be their last opportunity to get a swag of young talent in — will they consider trading stars?

Essendon

The Bombers are in a similar position to Carlton — where they probably need a fresh start but it’s going to get harder to do that.

On the plus side, their top 10 picks from the most recent draft all look promising in Farrow, Sharp and Robey.

However, a team that hasn’t won a final in more than 21 years is pretty far away from an AFL premiership.

Richmond

No one is expecting Richmond to even be challenging for finals in the coming seasons, but concerns are lingering.

Several of their recent top draftees — namely Sam Lalor, Josh Smillie and Taj Hotton — have battled injury and our struggling to get going.

The Tigers want to avoid being like North Melbourne in the past — being mired to the bottom of the ladder for too long.

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Teams that can win the AFL premiership

• Sydney
• Fremantle
• Hawthorn
• Brisbane
• Geelong
• Adelaide