NRL

There are just four rounds left before the 2026 NRL Finals and the race for the top eight is narrowing.

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Last season the cut-off for the finals was 32 competition points, while 30 was enough in 2024.

The Sporting News takes a closer look at the run home for all 17 NRL teams and makes weekly predictions on who will make it to the post-season in 2026.

Here’s our take heading into NRL Round 24 (teams listed in current ladder order):

1. Penrith Panthers (36 points)

Played 20, Won 15 Lost 5, Points Differential +292

Still to play:

• R24: Roosters (home) L
• R25: Storm (away) W
• R26: Bulldogs (home) W
• R27: Tigers (home) W

Best finish: 1st

Predicted finish: 2nd

The Panthers had a forgettable visit to New Zealand, losing the match against the Warriors and one of their most important players in Isaah Yeo to injury. With doubts continuing to hover over Dylan Edwards, Mitch Kenny and the make-up of the Panthers halves suddenly they’re no longer looking the unbackable favourites they were earlier in the year. This week’s match-up with the Roosters will reveal plenty.

2. Sydney Roosters (36 points)

Played 20, Won 15, Lost 5, Points Differential +157

Still to play:

• R24: Panthers (away) W
• R25: Tigers (home) W
• R26: Dolphins (home) W
• R27: Rabbitohs (away) W

Best finish: 1st

Predicted finish: 1st

The Roosters were seriously tested by the Bulldogs and found a way to get the win — just — in a very different match to their 70-point dismantling of the Cowboys a week earlier. The Panthers are wobbling and the minor premiership could be there for the taking with a win on Thursday night. Will the Chooks grab it?

3. New Zealand Warriors (34 points)

Played 20, Won 14, Lost 6, Points Differential +242

Still to play:

• R24: Broncos (away) W
• R25: Rabbitohs (away) W
• R26: Knights (home) W
• R27: Sea Eagles (home) W

Best finish: 1st

Predicted finish: 3rd

The Warriors saw off the Panthers at home and the top four is looking good. Even better, the impressive return of halfback Luke Metcalf provides even more reason for optimism as the finals approach. If the Panthers or Roosters slip up, they could even make the top two.

4. Cronulla Sharks (32 points)

Played 20, Won 13, Lost 7, Points Differential +169

Still to play:

• R24: Raiders (home) W
• R25: Titans (away) W
• R26: Eels (away) W
• R27: Storm (home) L

Best finish: 1st

Predicted finish: 4th

The Sharks were stunned by the Dragons in a major blow to their top-two hopes. Despite the wake-up call, they still face a reasonably comfortable run to the finals. With a superior for and against to the Dolphins the top four continues to look likely.

5. Dolphins (32 points)

Played 20, Won 13, Lost 7, Points Differential +98

Still to play:

• R24: Sea Eagles (away) W
• R25: Eels (home) W
• R26: Roosters (away) L
• R27: Titans (away) W

Best finish: Top 4

Predicted finish: 5th

Gave the Broncos a 24-point head start before running them down at Suncorp. While it was hugely entertaining to watch the Dolphins need to sort out their defence, quickly, to have any genuine title hopes come September.

6. Newcastle Knights (30 points)

Played 21, Won 13, Lost 8, Points Differential +66

Still to play:

• R24: Titans (home) W
• R25: Sea Eagles (home) L
• R26: Warriors (away) L
• R27: Bye

Best finish: Top 4

Predicted finish: 7th

The Knights just keep on winning and, with a final round bye, have all but guaranteed themselves finals footy only a year after finishing with the wooden spoon. If they can win all of their remaining matches a top four spot isn’t entirely out of the question which would be simply remarkable.

7. South Sydney Rabbitohs (28 points)

Played 20, Won 11, Lost 9, Points Differential +66

Still to play:

• R24: Bulldogs (home) L
• R25: Warriors (home) L
• R26: Titans (away) W
• R27: Roosters (away) L

Best finish: Top 4

Predicted finish: 9th

Things are getting tight for the Bunnies. They got the points against the Eels in Round 23 to remain in the mix, but home matches against the Bulldogs and Warriors will likely determine their finals fate for 2026. A final round grudge match against the Roosters looms as a potential nightmare scenario next month.

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8. North Queensland Cowboys (28 points)

Played 21, Won 12, Lost 9, Points Differential -76

Still to play:

• R24: Eels (away) W
• R25: Bye
• R26: Tigers (home) W
• R27: Raiders (home) W

Best finish: Top 4

Predicted finish: 6th

The Cowboys bounced back from their Roosters nightmare with a solid away win over the Titans. They could well win all their remaining games from here and also still have a bye. Looking solid to make the Top 8 now and the top four isn’t completely out of reach.

9. Canterbury Bulldogs (26 points)

Played 20, Won 10, Lost 10, Points Differential -46

Still to play:

• R24: Rabbitohs (home) W
• R25: Dragons (home) W
• R26: Panthers (away) L
• R27: Broncos (home) W

Best finish: 5th

Predicted finish: 8th

The Bulldogs gave the Roosters an an almighty fright and remain right in the hunt on that form. They still have the Bunnies, Panthers and Broncos in a tough end to the season, but they’re playing good footy. It’s going to be close. This week’s clash with the Rabbitohs is critical.

10. Manly Sea Eagles (24 points)

Played 20, Won 9 Lost 11, Points Differential +68

Still to play:

• R24: Dolphins (home) L
• R25: Knights (away) L
• R26: Dragons (home) W
• R27: Warriors (away) L

Best finish: 7th

Predicted finish: 10th

The Sea Eagles have lost five in a row following their second-half implosion against the Storm in Perth. Technically they’re still a chance, but it’s looking grim now. Just not playing well enough.

11. Melbourne Storm (22 points)

Played 21, Won 10, Lost 11, Points Differential -4

Still to play:

• R24: Bye
• R25: Panthers (home) L
• R26: Broncos (away) L
• R27: Sharks (away) W

Best finish: 8th

Predicted finish: 11th

Took care of the Sea Eagles in Perth and have the bye this week. If they’re able to beat the Panthers, Broncos and Sharks they can still get to 30 points which might be enough so they continue to have some hope, mathematically anyway.

12. Canberra Raiders (22 points)

Played 21, Won 9, Lost 12, Points Differential -65

Still to play:

• R24: Sharks (away) L
• R25: Broncos (home) W
• R26: Bye
• R27: Cowboys (away) L

Best finish: 8th

Predicted finish: 12th

The home loss to the Knights has all but extinguished the finals chances of last year’s minor premiers. Even if they win all of their remaining matches, it may not be enough given the superior for and against of the teams immediately ahead of them.

13. Parramatta Eels (20 points)

Played 21, Won 7, Lost 13, Points Differential -183

Still to play:

• R24: Cowboys (home) L
• R25: Dolphins (away) L
• R26: Sharks (home) L
• R27: Dragons (away) W

Best finish: 10th

Predicted finish: 13th

Stormed back from 28-0 at half time to give the Rabbitohs a massive scare but ultimately went down again. Their remaining games are tough and the Eels may struggle to win again in 2026, particularly given the Dragons’ vastly improved late season form.

14. Wests Tigers (20 points)

Played 20, Won 7, Lost 13, Points Differential -211

Still to play:

• R24: Dragons (home) L
• R25: Roosters (away) L
• R26: Cowboys (away) L
• R27: Panthers (away) L

Best finish: 10th

Predicted finish: 14th

The Round 23 bye gets the Tigers to 20 points who now face the Dragons. Lose and they’ll likely finish bottom three with their final three matches all away to Top 8 sides.

15. Gold Coast Titans (18 points)

Played 20, Won 6, Lost 14, Points Differential -144

Still to play:

• R24: Knights (away) L
• R25: Sharks (home) L
• R26: Rabbitohs (home) L
• R27: Dolphins (home) L

Best finish: 12th

Predicted finish: 16th

The Titans had another disappointing night against the Cowboys in Round 23. Three of their remaining four games are at home, but on current form they may struggle to win again with all of their matches against finals-chasing teams.

16. Brisbane Broncos (18 points)

Played 20, Won 6, Lost 14, Points Differential -164

Still to play:

• R24: Warriors (home) L
• R25: Raiders (away) L
• R26: Storm (home) W
• R27: Bulldogs (away) L

Best finish: 12th

Predicted finish: 15th

Started brilliantly against the Dolphins before being mowed down at Suncorp. The reigning NRL premiers sit second last and could well stay there with four tough matches to end a hugely disappointing season.

17. St George Illawarra Dragons (12 points)

Played 20, Won 3, Lost 17, Points Differential -265

Still to play:

• R24: Tigers (away) W
• R25: Bulldogs (away)  L
• R26: Sea Eagles (away) L
• R27: Eels (home) L

Best finish: 16th

Predicted finish: 17th

The last-placed Dragons continue to improve and pulled off an epic upset to topple the Sharks in Round 23. While they’ll still almost certainly end up with the 2026 wooden spoon, better days await in 2027. Much better.

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