NFL

Most NFL teams knew who their starting quarterback and top backup would be for Week 1 of the 2026 regular season going into training camp. But there are several fluid QB situations to watch involving a fourth of the league.

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Minnesota, Atlanta and Cleveland have the biggest mysteries, to the point that who wins the job in camp doesn’t guarantee keeping that status all season. Las Vegas and Arizona are firm in taking one approach, but there’s a chance those teams can be convinced to change their minds, sooner rather than later.

The Steelers, Rams and Eagles don’t have any worries about their Super Bowl-winning veteran starters, but they all need to come up with the best backup plan with some lofty playoff aspirations for the season. Those three teams might need all of camp to make their decisions.

From the most intriguing battles for No. 1 jobs and the most compelling competitions for No. 2 roles, here’s projecting the process and outcome for all eight teams involved:

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Starting QB battle predictions

Minnesota Vikings: Kyler Murray vs. J.J. McCarthy

Murray was released by the Cardinals, looking to regain his bona fide franchise QB status elsewhere as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft. He was willing to land in Minnesota on a bargain one-year $1.3 million contract because it was his best shot to start right away.

Murray is the newcomer favorite based on how much McCarthy has disappointed Kevin O’Connell and the rest of the offensive coaching staff with his durability and drive over the past two years. McCarthy is trying to make Minnesota wait on its decision and has matured a little while also showing strong and more accurate passing.

The problem is, Murray has looked more impressive early on, leaning on his savvy running and bringing the athletic element that the rather mobile McCarthy still can’t match. Murray also is leaning on much more experience in leading an offense. Unless Murray battles injury or McCarthy blows the doors through every camp practice in relation to him, Murray will be named the starter before the end of preseason games.

Atlanta Falcons: Tua Tagovailoa vs. Michael Penix Jr.

Tagovailoa has been holding the job through the offseason with Penix still needing time to fully recover from the knee injury (partial tear of ACL) he suffered that ended his 2025 season last November. Then came the early twist of Tagovailoa needing to miss some practice time in camp after a reported back injury.

That prompted the team to add former Cowboys and Ravens backup Cooper Rush into the mix to take some camp reps with Penix not ready for regular work. Assuming Tagovailoa will be on the shelf for a limited time before preseason games, he still has the inside track to start in the new offense of Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees. Penix has the better downfield arm and athleticism edge when healthy, but the Falcons will want to start the QB who will get the ball out quickly and be more accurate on short-to-intermediate passes, knowing what kind of receiving weapons tight end Kyle Pitts and running back Bijan Robinson are.

Tagovailoa had the edge when he was added for the Stefanski regime in March with Penix facing a long timeline. He may lose a little ground while out of action, but a lot more needs to happen before Penix can be trusted to start again with Tagovailoa taking the reins early.

MORE: Latest injury news on Tua Tagovailoa’s back

Imagn Images

Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson vs. Shedeur Sanders

The Browns are turning the page from Stefanski’s offense to that of new head coach Todd Monken, fresh off coordinating the rival Ravens. Recent MVP work with Lamar Jackson would suggest Monken likes a QB who can provide the combination of a big arm with dynamic running ability. Although Watson fits the profile when healthy and back in the flow of the offense, Monken has hinted he thinks Sanders has that potential.

Watson also won’t be playing just because he’s the much more expensive of the two quarterbacks, with Cleveland having committed to him with a bad contract. Based on his play so far in offseason practices before revved-up camp reps, there’s been a sense of underwhelming work. 

Monken and the Browns can’t feel comfortable rolling out Watson in Week 1 in Jacksonville unless he takes control with first-team work through preseason action. In terms of talent and experience, Watson has the advantage early, but the gap can close should Sanders have a strong camp of improvement, impressing Monken. Watson remains the default choice, but don’t be surprised with a Sanders upset or the second-year QB seeing work soon during the regular season.

Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza vs. Kirk Cousins

The trend for No. 1 overall pick quarterbacks for a decade has been either starting in Week 1 or seeing the majority of starts. The Raiders’ offensive staff, led by new coach Klint Kubiak, seems wary about committing to Mendoza right away because of having such a seasoned presence behind him in Cousins.

Many saw Las Vegas tipping its hand when Cousins was the firm first-team QB in pre-camp practices and OTAs. That tune has changed in camp, with Mendoza getting his share of starting reps early to get him comfortable with the principal offensive cast. No one would be shocked if Mendoza plays himself into starting right away as a rookie, but at the same time, sitting Mendoza — more so than playing Cousins — feels more like steadfast philosophy for how Kubiak wants to approach his surefire long-term franchise passer.

Going Mendoza over Cousins should be the decision, but the Raiders might be stuck with the storyline of putting Cousins out there first before Mendoza takes over in the early part of the season, much like Baker Mayfield for the Browns in 2018.

MORE: 4 reasons why Fernando Mendoza can win the Raiders’ starting job

Arizona Cardinals: Jacoby Brissett vs. Gardner Minshew and Carson Beck

This might have been a bigger mystery had Brissett still had a contract squabble with the team. But now he’s gotten a raise from leading the league’s most prolific passing offense in 2025, putting him on track to remain the bridge starting QB with Murray gone.

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Brissett, 33, should be more locked into that role now that he’s getting paid $15.5 million on his one-year deal. Minshew, 30, has fallen into pure veteran backup status, following his stints with the Eagles, Raiders and Chiefs. Based on recency, Brissett won’t see much of a push from Minshew as the latter gets second-team reps.

Beck, the rookie fourth-rounder, has little shot of displacing Minshew on the depth chart early, let alone Brissett. But when it’s inevitable the Cardinals struggle as one of the NFC’s worst teams wire-to-wire, it would behoove new offensive-minded coach Mike LaFleur to go into more evaluation mode. In that scenario, Beck is bound to get a look ahead of Minshew. As for early, however, the reworking of Brissett’s deal all but guarantees he’s LaFleur’s pick for Week 1.

Backup QB battle predictions

May 28, 2026; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Will Howard (18) participates in OTA drills at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Pittsburgh Steelers: Mason Rudolph vs. Will Howard

Rudolph is being treated so far as Aaron Rodgers’ top backup in the latter’s final NFL season, dominating second-team work and getting some chances with the starters, too. The 31-year-old Rudolph, however, is in the final year of his second-stint contract in Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are also making time to evaluate Howard, a 2025 sixth-rounder, and Drew Allar, their rookie third-rounder, for their potential beyond this season. Although they have been sprinkled in with the second team, it’s more to see who provides the better future upside in the new Mike McCarthy offense.

No Rodgers and no Rudolph in 2027 mean the team needs to find out if can elevate Howard or Allar. For now, Howard has lost plenty of ground on Rudolph and Allar’s early positive impressions put him on the trajectory to jump Howard on the depth chart as the No. 3. Should Rodgers need to miss time early in the season, Rudolph would get the nod, but Allar is positioning himself to be choice later in year depending on whether the Steelers are still contending for a playoff spot.

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Los Angeles Rams: Stetson Bennett vs. Ty Simpson

Matthew Stafford’s MVP play last season before turning 38 has quieted all that retirement talk to the point he is expected to play multiple additional seasons. That made the early first-round draft selection (No. 13 overall) a curious pick.

The Rams loaded themselves with Myles Garrett and huge upgrades at cornerback to field a defense that makes them the favorites to dethrone the Seahawks as Super Bowl champions. But it’s clear they were not too comfortable about needing to lean on Benettt, their 2023 fourth-rounder, should Stafford need to go on the shelf at some point in 2026.

Sean McVay has opened up the competition for No. 2 between Bennett and Simpson to make sure he has a strong young contingency with top college experience that would help the Rams win in a stretch if needed. Bennett has responded well to the competition, but McVay has left the opportunity open for Simpson should he accelerate his development in the offense during camp.

Even though Bennett has seen limited past preseason work for the Rams, his experience in absorbing the system gives him a significant edge. Simpson has plenty of time on his side to be groomed more as Stafford’s successor down the line.

Philadelphia Eagles: Andy Dalton vs. Tanner McKee

The Eagles have had a revolving door backing up Jalen Hurts since 2021. They have gone from Minshew to Marcus Mariota to Kenny Pickett to finally giving McKee his chance as the unquestioned No. 2 last season.

McKee, a 2023 sixth-rounder, has flashed behind the scenes, but he has been unable to build on his buzz to generate intriguing upside. The team has provided two indications of McKee’s stagnant status this offseason.

First, in March, the Eagles traded a 2027 seventh-round pick to acquire Andy Dalton from the Panthers. Second, in April, they used a 2026 sixth-rounder on raw, dynamic Hurts-like athlete Cole Payton.

McKee is in the final year of his rookie contract. Dalton has one more year on the deal he got in Carolina. Dalton is better set up to be the experienced No. 2 after McKee wasn’t needed to relieve Hurts last season. When McKee did start in a meaningless Week 18 game vs. Washington, he struggled with his accuracy and decision-making under pressure.

Dalton has had a strong second career as a former Bengals star starter, adapting well to multiple systems with the Cowboys, Bears, Saints and Panthers. Although coach Nick Sirianni and new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion have said the competition is even, there’s no doubt Dalton has felt more comfortable with the reps behind Hurts.

McKee will need to show a lot in camp and preseason to prove he should remain No. 2 with Dalton set to be the default winner. McKee will also have to worry a lot more about Payton becoming the Eagles’ new developmental darling at QB.

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