NBA

In Part 1 of the best over/under win total bets for the 2026 NBA season, I outlined the three best unders to consider. Now, in Part 2, I will hit on the best overs. 

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As a reminder, season win totals are one of the easier future markets to beat. Most of the lines are driven by casual bettors, creating soft spots to attack. By using my win projection model alongside my own subjective analysis, here are the teams oddsmakers are far too low on this season. 

NBA over/unders and win totals for 2026-27 season

(All odds via FanDuel)

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Best NBA win total over bets

Best bet: Rockets over 46.5 wins (-110)

What the model thinks: The Rockets won 52 games last season while getting only 32 games from Steven Adams and 0 from Fred VanVleet. They should be better this year, not worse, due to those and other additions. My model has them at 55 wins, while Vegas predicts a sharp decline down to 46.5 wins. 

Ime Udoka rode his players hard last season, with Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, and Jabari Smith Jr. all finishing top five in minutes played. All three are critical players, and the model thinks that they will play less. Adams, VanVleet, and free agent signings Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic should be able to bridge that gap capably though. 

Adams is easily a starting-level center that is coming off Houston’s bench. VanVleet is more of an average starter and gives the same level of production as his replacement last season, Reed Sheppard. Smart is an underrated addition. He revitalized his career with the Lakers, and he showed that he can still play at a high level.

What I think: This is clearly the best over bet on the board. The lasting image of the Rockets is of them faltering in the first round for the second year in a row. That playoff failure doesn’t affect their regular season win total, where they have won 52 for two consecutive years. There’s not really much of a case for them falling so far off unless they suffer unusual injury luck. 

Houston has built a sustainable style with tough-nosed defense and unbelievable offensive rebounding. They’ve only gotten stronger in those two areas by adding Smart and returning Adams. Both of those two have good-not-great impact numbers, but the model is underrating their importance. VanVleet’s shot-making at the end of games shores up the team’s biggest weakness from last year, where they relied way too heavily on Durant. And Adams gives the team a double-big lineup with Alperen Sengun that was unstoppable on the glass. 

Durant is still the team’s most important player. But even if he plays half the season, Houston should still comfortably be over 50 wins and clear the over. 

Raptors over 45.5 wins (-115)

What the model thinks: There is obviously a lot of risk around betting the Raptors given that the Kawhi Leonard trade still has not gone through and the penalties from his salary circumvention with the Clippers could be severe. 

Vegas is not pricing that risk correctly. The model still thinks this is a good bet despite the potential downside of the Kawhi saga. Toronto won 46 games last season, so simply treading water will get them to their over. That will be harder in a much tougher Eastern Conference, but it should be doable. 

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If Kawhi does play a reasonable 63 games, the model thinks the Raptors will smash their over, hitting 54.5 wins. He was a top-five player in the league last year by impact metrics and was durable. 

The dropoff from Leonard to Ingram is steep. But even if the Kawhi trade is rescinded and Ingram is forced back to Toronto, the team projects for 46.5 wins, barely hitting their over. 

Scottie Barnes is the main driver of that success sans-Leonard. He comfortably has All-Star impact and has been reasonably healthy throughout his career. The Raptors have good supporting talent throughout their starting lineup, including RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, and Ingram or Leonard. Outside of those five, Collin Murray-Boyles immediately emerged as a quality backup big man during his rookie year and Jamal Shead was a pitbull off the bench. 

Teams with this much depth usually win 50 games. The Raptors might not strike as much fear into opponents as the star-driven Sixers, but they should be better in the regular season due to how many quality players they have on their roster. 

What I think: Darko Rajakovic has proven he can coach, drastically improving the Raptors’ defense during every year of his career. They were up to the No. 5 team on that end of the floor last season, and they will be great again with the addition of Leonard and promising rookie Allen Graves in place of much weaker defenders in Ingram and Sandro Mamukelashvili. 

That defense should carry them to a ton of regular season wins. They’re a gritty team that puts forth great effort on a nightly basis. It’s very difficult to see any scenario outside of devastating injuries where they underperform based on the character of their staff and players. 

The Leonard investigation is a mystery, but it seems unlikely that the trade is rescinded. It is quite possible that he is suspended for part of the season. Even half a year of Leonard would have the Raptors hitting this over by 6.5 games. 

Other over bets

There aren’t any other fantastic over bets on the board. Some fringe ones that I wouldn’t take but my model likes include the Clippers, Grizzlies, and Celtics. 

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