Norway Confronts a New Gambling Frontier as Prediction Markets Spread Beyond Regulators’ Reach
A fast-growing corner of the online betting world has quietly established itself in Norway without any clear regulatory framework, prompting warnings that the risks extend far beyond gambling addiction.
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Prediction markets, platforms where users wager on the outcome of future events, have surged in popularity over the past two years. What began as a niche product tied to politics and financial speculation now offers bets on everything from cryptocurrency prices and corporate developments to diplomatic meetings and sporting outcomes.
For critics, that expansion has created a regulatory blind spot.
A Constant Stream of Bets
Magnus Pedersen of Gambling Addiction Norway sees the platforms as a particularly potent mix of gambling, financial speculation and constant digital stimulation. The products are built around live odds, shifting probabilities and uninterrupted streams of new markets, creating an environment where users rarely run out of opportunities to place another wager.
The concern is not limited to people already struggling with gambling problems.
Pedersen argues that prediction markets package speculative betting in a way that can feel more sophisticated than traditional gambling while retaining many of the same addictive features. With markets operating around the clock, users can continuously move from one event to another without interruption.
Parliament Pushes for Action
Inside the Norwegian parliament, politicians are increasingly questioning whether prediction markets should be treated as ordinary betting services at all. The ability to place anonymous wagers through cryptocurrency, combined with markets tied to real-world events and privileged information, has raised fears that the platforms could become vehicles for insider trading and other forms of abuse.
Among those pressing for action is parliamentary representative Mirell Høyer-Berntsen of the Socialist Left Party (SV). This week, SV helped present a proposal calling on the government to examine whether gambling regulations should be extended to prediction markets, whether authorities need stronger powers to monitor activity aimed at Norwegian users, and whether restrictions should be considered for markets linked to elections, wars, conflicts and young people.
The proposal reflects a growing belief that the issue is no longer confined to consumer protection. Security concerns have entered the discussion as well.
The Insider Information Problem
Unlike traditional gambling products, prediction markets allow users to speculate on events that may involve sensitive information. A person with advance knowledge of a political decision, a corporate announcement or a diplomatic development could potentially profit from that information through a seemingly unrelated bet.
When transactions are conducted through cryptocurrency and participants remain difficult to identify, critics argue that enforcement becomes significantly more complicated.
Supporters of tighter oversight say this creates a challenge that falls somewhere between gambling regulation, financial supervision and law enforcement. Existing rules were largely written before such markets became widely accessible to ordinary users.
A Global Industry Expanding Fast
The market’s rapid growth has intensified those worries.
The sector is dominated by platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which have connections to Donald Trump Jr. Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, the industry has expanded dramatically. Global trading volumes now exceed $20 billion per month, according to figures cited by the Pew Research Center.
Recent controversies in the United States have added momentum to the debate. Several states are seeking greater authority to regulate prediction markets themselves, while federal regulators continue to oversee the industry at the national level.
The dispute highlights a broader question facing governments worldwide: whether these platforms should be treated as financial exchanges, gambling products or something entirely different.
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Europe Moves Ahead While Nordics Wait
The growth has not gone unnoticed elsewhere. Several European countries, including France, Spain and Germany, have already moved to restrict or ban certain prediction-market activities.
Norway and its Nordic neighbours have largely remained on the sidelines, watching developments unfold.
That relative lack of attention may be changing.
Kjersti Aksnes Gjesdahl, who leads financial industry work at PwC Norway, believes many people have underestimated how quickly these markets have become international. What may appear to be a distinctly American phenomenon is already accessible to Norwegian users and integrated into a global ecosystem that operates across borders.
Businesses and Authorities Face New Risks
From Gjesdahl’s perspective, the most immediate challenge lies in the potential misuse of confidential information. Prediction markets create a new avenue through which individuals could potentially monetise information that would traditionally be protected by insider-trading rules.
The possibility of earning substantial sums while remaining largely hidden presents a risk that both private companies and public institutions need to take seriously. Financial regulators and Norway’s economic crime authorities may ultimately need to assess whether existing enforcement tools are sufficient.
The issue extends beyond listed companies. Public agencies handling sensitive information may also need to evaluate whether internal controls are adequate in an environment where confidential knowledge can potentially be converted into profits through anonymous online markets.
Concerns Over Young Users
For opponents of the industry, those discussions are only the beginning.
Pedersen argues that prediction markets have crossed lines that even parts of the conventional gambling industry have been reluctant to approach. He points to aggressive promotion through influencers and social media campaigns, alongside products that appeal to younger audiences already immersed in cryptocurrency culture and online speculation.
The result, he fears, is a system that reaches people long before they understand the potential consequences.
Advocates of stricter regulation say younger users may be particularly vulnerable because prediction markets are often presented as innovative technology products rather than gambling services.
Regulation Debate Reaches Norway
As Norwegian authorities weigh whether the phenomenon belongs under gambling law, financial regulation or an entirely new framework, one reality is becoming harder to ignore: a rapidly expanding market is already operating inside the country, while the rules governing it remain largely undefined.
The debate unfolding in Norway mirrors discussions taking place across Europe and North America. What separates prediction markets from conventional gambling remains contested, but the pace of growth is forcing regulators to make decisions that many had previously postponed.
Source: nrk.no
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