Is Arch Manning really the 2027 No. 1 pick or just a massive ‘projection’ gamble?

Arch Manning’s first full season as the Longhorns’ starting quarterback in 2025 was a mixed ride, but the way he closed out the year grabbed plenty of attention. His buzz is reaching another level heading into the 2026 season, and he is also being projected as a potential No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.

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This week, Prep Network draft analyst Ian Kenyon shared his early quarterback evaluations for next year’s class and gave a straightforward assessment of Manning.

“Arch Manning comp heading into the 2026 season is going to end up being Ryan Tannehill. Which doesn’t mean Arch can’t go no. 1. next season. But I do think there’s a lot of projection being baked into the assumption that he’s going to be no. 1,” Kenyon tweeted.

Some scouts believe Manning already shows NFL-level arm talent, mobility, and playmaking ability, along with noticeable improvement as a processor. However, his limited starting experience remains the biggest question mark, which is why the comparison to Tannehill was made, who also had just 19 college starts before entering the NFL. 

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However, Tannehill later went on to become a Pro Bowl quarterback and built a long NFL career spanning over a decade. So, the comparison wasn’t aimed at criticism.

As for Kenyon’s evaluation about other quarterbacks in the 2027 class,he said he is “out on” Baylor’s DJ Lagway. He said Lagway is like the emergent 4-5 star freshman with a big arm who just can’t put it all together.

Kenyon also delivered a sharp critique of Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, saying he is not “buying the first-round hype” and is even uncertain about Day 2 value. However, he gave Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr a stronger evaluation, saying that the Irish quarterback is ahead of both Lagway and Sayin.

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