NBA

The East is going to be an absolutely brutal conference this year, with 11 good teams vying for eight playoff spots. And while last year’s records were inflated by the bottom five in the conference trying desperately to lose as many games as possible, everyone will be trying their hardest this year. 

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When looking at the conference as a whole, the East breaks out into very clean tiers. Four teams stand out as having a clear shot at the No. 1 seed. There is a compacted middle, where only a few games will separate the No. 5 seed from the Play-In losers that miss the playoffs. And there are four clear cellar-dwellers.

I’m projecting regular season records for all 15 teams within those groups, combining my DARKO-based win projection model with my own subjective analysis on how chemistry and new additions will affect teams. In Part 1, I covered every team in the West. Here are my East projections. 

Win predictions for every team in the East

Top seed contenders

1. Celtics: 54-28

The Celtics may have lost Jaylen Brown from their 56-win team last season, but they should still be near the top of the East standings. Jayson Tatum is more than capable of replacing Brown’s production. It’s reasonable to expect a return to All-NBA form for him based on his small sample of play last season.

Paul George should also help considerably. While he can’t be projected for huge minutes, he was a good starter for the Sixers last year and fits perfectly into Boston’s system. The same goes for Mitchell Robinson, whose plus defense and elite offensive rebounding is estimated to add between three and four wins to Boston’s total. 

MORE: Evaluating Boston with Paul George, and what PG could bring back in a trade

2. Raptors: 53-29

Kawhi Leonard should drastically improve the Raptors. He’s a major upgrade over Brandon Ingram on both sides of the ball. Leonard was one of the top five players in the league by DARKO last year and specifically addresses Toronto’s weaknesses in pull-up 3-point shooting, isolation scoring, pick-and-roll ballhandling, transition efficiency, and attacking zone defenses. 

Leonard’s health is always the wildcard for his teams. If he can come close to approximating his minutes from last year, then the Raptors are a surefire top-three team in the East with a chance at the No. 1 spot. 

Even without Leonard, this is a good team that won 46 games last year. Scottie Barnes didn’t make an All-NBA team last season, but he probably should have. He spearheads what developed into an elite defense under Darko Rajakovic, based on intense ball pressure, aggressive help, and generating a lot of turnovers. They should easily be top-five on that end of the floor, creating a ton of regular season wins. 

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3. Knicks: 52-30

The Knicks found their perfect chemistry during their championship run, but they were a much more average regular season team, winning 53 games last year. They have three All-Star level players in Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns. Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges are good starters to round up that group. So why aren’t they the clear No. 1 seed? 

The Knicks are a team that scales up well in the playoffs, when rotations shorten up. During the regular season, the cracks in their roster may show more. This team looks a bit worse than last year’s too. Mitchell Robinson may not have been a star, but he was an important part of last year’s success. The drop off between Robinson and newcomer Andre Drummond is worth about three wins on its own. That lack of depth in the frontcourt will be an issue. 

4. Cavs: 50-32

We are all sleeping on the Cavs as a legitimate contender to win the East. Cleveland won 52 games last season while missing Darius Garland for much of the year before he was traded. James Harden has been a regular season workhorse even as he’s aged, and he’s still playing at an All-Star level. The team was at a 60-win pace in regular season games that Harden played in last year. 

Donovan Mitchell is, of course, the Cavs’ best player as an All-NBA talent. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen also provide All-Star level production. Peyton Watson’s defense and athleticism at the small forward position addresses one of the team’s most glaring weaknesses. 

That’s a great starting five, and the Mitchell/Allen/Mobley trio has averaged 58 wins over the last two regular seasons. It’s fair to doubt them in the playoffs, but they’re going to have a great record during the first 82 games. 

MORE: Handing out grades for the Peyton Watson trade

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The Playoff/Play-In Bloodbath zone

5. Pistons: 48-34

The Pistons steamrolled their way to 60 wins and the best record in the East last season. They will always play tough defense and have an edge to their team that makes them a handful to play against. There is probably a regression coming though. 

Cade Cunningham is as reliable as they come. The same can’t be said for Jalen Duren, who was terrific in the regular season but looked invisible in the playoffs. In fairness, Duren was excellent during the regular season and that is what these projections are about. But it’s fair to wonder if that poor playoff performance and his lengthy contract dispute will bleed over into this year.

The Pistons have decent depth but don’t have a guy in the top 50 in the NBA outside of those two. Ausar Thompson’s weaknesses as an outside scorer are exacerbated by playing next to Duren, and Detroit still projects to be a weak 3-point shooting team even after the addition of Isaiah Joe. John Collins is also a slight downgrade on Tobias Harris, and I didn’t like the move to dump Isaiah Stewart, who was one of the most underrated defenders in the league. 

6. Sixers: 46-36

The Sixers have great championship equity. They’re not a team built for the regular season though. LeBron James and Joel Embiid will save themselves for the playoffs, forcing Nick Nurse to lean on a bench that becomes paper-thin after their seventh man. 

The center position is particularly worrisome, where Adem Bona and Ariel Hukporti will have to fill in for when Embiid misses time. Neither of those players are close to a starting-level center, and Philadelphia may have to make an in-season trade to address that weakness. 

MORE: Can the Sixers win a title with LeBron James?

7. Heat 44-38

The Heat should have a top-five defense with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo working in tandem. Erik Spoelstra knows how to get the most out of his personnel, and he will use those two in a variety of different schemes. 

The offense will be more problematic. Giannis is a force unto himself, and he fits well into the mismatch-hunting style that the Heat played last season. Miami did add some shooting in Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. to open up the floor, but they still don’t have quite as much around Giannis as you’d like. 

My model has the Heat at around 43 wins due to the significant drop-off in talent after their first two players. They don’t have any players in the top 100 aside from Giannis and Bam. I’m bumping them up a few wins due to the Spo effect and Giannis’ ability to make everyone around him better, but that’s still not enough to get them out of Play-In range. 

8. Pacers: 43-39

In my bold predictions column, I had the Pacers as my dark horse championship team. It is a bit odd, then, to see them as a Play-In team here. But I expect them to struggle early before finding their groove. They showed during their Finals run two years ago that they are extremely reliant on Tyrese Haliburton. When he started that year off slowly, so too did the team. 

I expect the Pacers to have similar regular season issues this year. Haliburton will need time to get his world-class conditioning back after coming back from a bad episode of shingles and a torn Achilles. He will also need to build chemistry with Kelly Oubre and Ivica Zubac. 

The Pacers may not be a great regular season team, but they have so many playoff risers on their roster and such elite coaching that it is completely plausible for them to make a Finals run from the Play-In Tournament. 

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9. Hawks: 43-39

The Hawks are an extremely well-balanced team that rode their top five hard last year, going 19-4 at the end of the season after they placed CJ McCollum into their starting lineup in place of Zaccharie Risacher. 

Risacher is gone now, and the Hawks have made some meaningful upgrades with Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins coming over from the Thunder. So why isn’t Atlanta projected to improve upon its 46 wins last year? 

The Hawks are going against a much tougher Eastern Conference, and their hot stretch late came against some of the worst teams in the league. While they have good depth at every position, they lack the true superstar that drives winning like some of the teams above them. Jalen Johnson is a great No. 2 on a championship team but doesn’t profile as a top 10 player in the league. 

Atlanta does have draft assets and movable deals on their books. If they want to hit the gas pedal mid-season, they are capable of making a big trade and raising this projection significantly. 

10. Magic: 41-41

While there is debate about who the Magic’s best player is, stats nerds mostly agree that it’s Franz Wagner. He’s projected to have slightly below All-Star level production. Unfortunately, he’s had issues staying on the court over the past two seasons. 

As for the rest of the Magic’s big three, Desmond Bane and Paolo Banchero grade out as average starters rather than fringe All-Stars.

It’s conceivable that those players could see a bump in production in a different system under new coach Sean Sweeney, but this is still a roster that doesn’t have enough 3-point shooting or strong enough creation from its guards.

Sweeney may be able to get these odd-looking pieces to fit better than his predecessor. I’m not giving him the benefit of the doubt though as an unproven head coach. 

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In a league of their own

11. Hornets: 36-46

The Hornets are the only team that looks stuck right in that middle zone between the Play-In Tournament and the abyss of the bottom of the standings. They were a plucky team with LaMelo Ball driving a lot of their action. With him gone, they have several good players but nobody who can consistently generate advantages. 

Charlotte should still get up a ton of 3’s and be a good offense even without Ball. But they’re taking a clear step back by losing by far their most impactful player. Brandon Miller still needs to add strength and score more efficiently from the midrange. Kon Knueppel needs to show that his late season fade was a fluke. Moussa Diabate should play a lot, as he was sneakily one of the Hornets’ best impact players and helped transform the team once he was inserted into the starting lineup. 

The relegation zone

12. Wizards: 25-57

The Wizards have big expectations after bringing in Trae Young, Anthony Davis, and drafting AJ Dybantsa. While they will undoubtedly be better than their 17 wins from last year, I’m not seeing the jump into the 30’s that everyone else is. 

The Young-Davis pick-and-roll makes a lot of sense on paper. Young is a terrific lob thrower, and Davis is still at an All-Star level when healthy. That last part is a big caveat. Davis can’t stay on the floor, and a low minutes projection for him (also factoring in the potential of him getting traded) keeps the Wizards’ win total low. 

Young also hasn’t been the same guy in recent years. He remains a brilliant passer, but he’s lost some touch on both his signature floater and pull-up 3’s. 

Aside from that big two, the Wizards have several young players on their roster who consistently lose their minutes, including Bub Carrington and Bilal Coulibaly. Dybantsa may also need some time to become a positive impact player, as he’s admitted that his defensive effort was poor in college and he needs to rid himself of the habit of taking contested long 2’s early in the clock. 

Add in some weak coaching by Brian Keefe, and you have a group that I’m lower than consensus on.  

MORE: Why Pacers, Wizards, Mavs are the best under bets

13. Bulls: 25-57

The Bulls added some talent in Norm Powell, who has a good chance of being gone by the trade deadline. Rookie Caleb Wilson is going to play a lot, but it is very rare for one-and-done draft picks to have positive impact immediately. 

The Bulls also have some issues at center, where Nic Claxton isn’t a good fit with Wilson and has fallen off considerably from his peak of a few years ago. A renaissance is possible in a non-tanking environment away from the Nets, but not something I’d count on. 

MORE: A full explanation for why I have the Bulls down for 25 wins

14. Bucks: 24-58

The Bucks were a bad team when they were missing Giannis last year, going 15-31 in those games. Now, they’ll have to live through a whole season without him. 

Milwaukee does have some solid players on its roster. Kevin Porter Jr., Ryan Rollins, and Tyler Herro all project to have positive impact. Jaime Jaquez Jr., A.J. Green, Kasparas Jakucionis, Kel’el Ware, and Myles Turner are decent players. Replacing Doc Rivers with Taylor Jenkins is a major upgrade. But the Bucks have no high-end talent. 

The Bucks also have a lot of young players who are going to have to play and may not contribute to winning right away. Brayden Burries looked impressive in Summer League but is still just 21 years old. Nate Ament is much more of a project. 

15. Nets: 23-59

The Nets don’t control their own draft pick, so there’s not as much incentive for them to get out of the relegation zone. They did add Julius Randle to soak up minutes and provide a decent floor for the team alongside Michael Porter Jr. 

Those two veterans won’t be enough to prop up a very young team. Mikel Brown is capable of making brilliant plays, but he also will make sloppy ones as a turnover-prone rookie guard. Egor Demin and Nolan Traore look like keepers. But Danny Wolf, Ben Saraf, and Drake Powell have much more to prove. 

Day’Ron Sharpe should be a bright spot. He gets a chance to move into a starting center role, and the underrated energy big man should thrive there as one of the best value contracts in the league. 

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