Hokkaido Casino Resort Could Generate Up to $3.5B Annually

One possible IR in the northern Japanese prefecture of Hokkaido may have a yearly economic multiplier effect of as much as JPY550 billion ($3.5 billion) once opened.

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The estimates were made in June by a company in the private sector, which were then referenced by the local news source Yomiuri Shimbun. No name was given for the company behind the estimates.

The estimates predict that an IR in Hokkaido could create yearly economic effects between JPY190 billion ($1.2 billion) and JPY550 billion ($3.5 billion).

These are not estimates made in a government-approved development plan. Hokkaido has not yet decided whether it will enter Japan’s next integrated resort application round.

Still, the estimate provides an indication of the possible economic scale of an IR project if the prefecture decides to pursue one.

Visitor and Sales Projections

The assessment made some assumptions about the ability of the potential resort to bring in anywhere from 5.6 million to 8.2 million visitors per year.

The estimated range for annual resort sales based on these estimates was from JPY140 billion, or $902 million, to JPY410 billion, or $2.6 billion.

The estimates are made based on a potential project that has yet to be developed or approved. No location, potential private partner, development timeline, or investment value has been part of the study cited by Yomiuri Shimbun.

However, by looking at the number of visitors and the amount of sales, one can see the potential level of activity that an integrated resort may have in the case of a permit from Hokkaido and its national recognition.

The integrated resorts can contain casino facilities, hotels, and entertainment facilities. The report’s estimate focused on the potential annual economic effects and the employment impact that such a project could create.

Job Creation Potential

The private sector analysis revealed that the project will create between 19,000 and 56,000 jobs per year when the resort begins operating.

The construction phase could also have a major economic effect. Investment during construction was expected to trigger an economic impact of JPY1.54 trillion, or $9.9 billion.

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The construction process would be responsible for creating 93,000 jobs, according to the estimate.

These projections show that the potential impact would extend beyond the operation of the resort itself. The construction phase could generate employment and economic activity before the facility begins operating.

Once open, the resort could continue to support jobs related to its operations and other economic activity connected to the project.

The figures remain estimates only. They have not been included in a government-approved development plan, and the prefecture has yet to make a decision on whether it will pursue an IR proposal.

Hokkaido Considers Next Application Round

Hokkaido has not yet confirmed whether it will take part in Japan’s next IR application round.

The national application period is scheduled to run from May 6 to November 5, 2027. If Hokkaido decides to proceed, it would need to prepare a development proposal and meet the requirements of Japan’s IR framework.

Earlier this month, 8 local business groups urged Governor Naomichi Suzuki to advance the IR initiative. The groups called for the prefecture to begin preparations for a potential application.

The prefectural government has also submitted its draft on the revised IR policy to the assembly of Hokkaido.

These developments indicate ongoing negotiations, but they do not mean that the prefecture has decided to apply for an IR site.

Previous Withdrawal and Japan’s IR Market

Hokkaido withdrew itself from Japan’s first IR application process in 2019, citing environmental issues and the lack of sufficient time to evaluate the sites.

The next application round could give Hokkaido another opportunity to consider an IR proposal. However, a decision has not yet been made.

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Japan has approved 1 IR project so far. MGM Osaka is scheduled to open in 2030.

Source: Asia Gaming Brief