NRL
There are just two rounds left before the 2026 NRL Finals and things are getting tight at both ends of the Top 8.
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The Tigers’ upset win over the Roosters has created chaos in the race for the minor premiership and top two, while two teams outside the eight still have a chance to sneak in.
The Sporting News takes a closer look at the run home for all 17 NRL teams and makes weekly predictions on who will make it to the post-season in 2026.
Here’s our take heading into NRL Round 26 (teams listed in current ladder order):
1. New Zealand Warriors (38 points)
Played 22, Won 16, Lost 6, Points Differential +295
Still to play:
- R26: Knights (home) W
- R27: Sea Eagles (home) W
Best finish: 1st
Predicted finish: 1st
The Warriors dispatched the Rabbitohs in Round 25 and have moved ahead of the Roosters and Panthers on for and against, giving them an excellent shot at the top two and possibly even the club’s second minor premiership. They end the regular season with two home games in Auckland which means they won’t have to play in Australia again until the NRL grand final if they keep winning. Is this finally the year Wahs fans?
2. Penrith Panthers (38 points)
Played 22, Won 16 Lost 6, Points Differential +294
Still to play:
- R26: Bulldogs (home) W
- R27: Tigers (home) W
Best finish: 1st
Predicted finish: 2nd
The Panthers got the job done in Melbourne and now head into a epic match-up against a desperate Bulldogs lineup. If they slip up they could still finish outside the top two, but an excellent for and against means their spot in the top four is safe.
3. Sydney Roosters (38 points)
Played 22, Won 16, Lost 6, Points Differential +162
Still to play:
- R26: Dolphins (home) W
- R27: Rabbitohs (away) W
Best finish: 1st
Predicted finish: 3rd
The Roosters were stunned by the Tigers and are suddenly under real pressure with huge matches against the Dolphins and Bunnies to end their season. Remarkably it’s even possible they could drop out of the top four if the wheels fall off in the next fortnight.
4. Dolphins (36 points)
Played 22, Won 15, Lost 7, Points Differential +136
Still to play:
- R26: Roosters (away) L
- R27: Titans (away) W
Best finish: Top 2
Predicted finish: 4th
The Dolphins started slowly against the Eels before winning comfortably to consolidate their place in the top-four. This week’s away clash with the Roosters in Round 26 is the ultimate pre-finals litmus test. A loss could see the Sharks jump ahead of them.
5. Cronulla Sharks (34 points)
Played 22, Won 14, Lost 8, Points Differential +173
Still to play:
- R26: Eels (away) W
- R27: Storm (home) L
Best finish: 4th
Predicted finish: 5th
The Sharks fell behind early but got the job done against the Titans to snap a two-match losing streak and stay in the hunt for a top four finish. Even if they finish fifth, with the Knights and Rabbitohs both losing last weekend a home final is looking good.
6. Newcastle Knights (32 points)
Played 22, Won 13, Lost 9, Points Differential +56
Still to play:
- R26: Warriors (away) L
- R27: Bye
Best finish: 5th
Predicted finish: 6th
The Knights were stunned at home by Manly, ending their top four hopes and making it touch and go for a home match in Week 1 of the finals. Working in their favour is a final round bye. But before then comes the not-so-small matter of an away trip to the Warriors.
7. South Sydney Rabbitohs (30 points)
Played 22, Won 12, Lost 10, Points Differential +63
Still to play:
- R26: Titans (away) W
- R27: Roosters (away) L
Best finish: Top 4
Predicted finish: 8th
Losing to the Warriors wasn’t unexpected, but it certainly makes for a tense final two weeks with the Bunnies now just one win ahead of the chasing Bulldogs. The final round grudge match against the Roosters will be massive as they push to secure a return to the post season and a win this week against the Titans would ease much of the pressure.
8. North Queensland Cowboys (30 points)
Played 22, Won 12, Lost 10, Points Differential -78
Still to play:
- R26: Tigers (home) W
- R27: Raiders (home) W
Best finish: 6th
Predicted finish: 7th
Last week’s bye keeps the Cowboys two points ahead of the Bulldogs, but their for and against is significantly worse so they can’t afford to slip up. Their final two matches are at home and they should make it. Should.
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The Warriors move into first place with just TWO rounds remaining before NRL Finals! 😝 pic.twitter.com/tU8pUMpY8f
— NRL (@NRL) August 23, 2026
9. Canterbury Bulldogs (28 points)
Played 21, Won 10, Lost 11, Points Differential -32
Still to play:
- R26: Panthers (away) L
- R27: Broncos (home) W
Best finish: 7th
Predicted finish: 9th
The Doggies bounced back from their Rabbitohs loss with a big win over the Dragons and are still in it. 32 points remains within reach if they can win their final two games. Their for and against is better than North Queensland, but worse than South Sydney’s. It’s going to be close.
10. Manly Sea Eagles (26 points)
Played 22, Won 10 Lost 12, Points Differential +66
Still to play:
- R26: Dragons (home) W
- R27: Warriors (away) L
Best finish: 8th
Predicted finish: 10th
Finally snapped a six-game losing streak away to the Knights. Technically still a chance of finishing 8th thanks to a solid for an against, but it would take implosions from at least two of the Rabbitohs, Cowboys and Bulldogs.
11. Melbourne Storm (24 points)
Played 22, Won 10, Lost 12, Points Differential -12
Still to play:
- R26: Broncos (away) W
- R27: Sharks (away) W
Best finish: 10th
Predicted finish: 11th
The Storm went down to the Panthers at home and end their season with away trips to the Broncos and Sharks.
12. Canberra Raiders (24 points)
Played 23, Won 10, Lost 13, Points Differential -65
Still to play:
- R26: Bye
- R27: Cowboys (away) L
Best finish: 8th
Predicted finish: 12th
The Raiders officially bowed out of finals contention with their home loss to the Broncos. With the bye in Round 26 they have just one more match in 2026, away to the Cowboys in the final round.
13. Parramatta Eels (22 points)
Played 23, Won 8, Lost 14, Points Differential -197
Still to play:
- R26: Sharks (home) L
- R27: Dragons (away) W
Best finish: 11th
Predicted finish: 13th
The Eels started well against the Dolphins before being over-run at Suncorp. Finals are out of reach so it’s all about building for 2027.
14. Wests Tigers (22 points)
Played 22, Won 8, Lost 14, Points Differential -212
Still to play:
- R26: Cowboys (away) L
- R27: Panthers (away) L
Best finish: 11th
Predicted finish: 14th
As enigmatic as ever, the Tigers stunned the Roosters in Round 25 and now face two difficult away games to end their season. Should finish the year ahead of last year’s premiers, so that’s something to smile about.
15. Brisbane Broncos (20 points)
Played 22, Won 7, Lost 15, Points Differential -194
Still to play:
- R26: Storm (home) L
- R27: Bulldogs (away) L
Best finish: 14th
Predicted finish: 15th
The Broncos won away in Canberra and with the Dragons falling to the Bulldogs they have avoided the ignominy of the club’s second wooden spoon. There are two more tough matches to go before they can consign season 2026 officially to the dust bin.
16. Gold Coast Titans (18 points)
Played 22, Won 6, Lost 16, Points Differential -162
Still to play:
- R26: Rabbitohs (home) L
- R27: Dolphins (home) L
Best finish: 13th
Predicted finish: 16th
The Titans gave the Sharks a fright early in Round 25 before going down again. Two more home games to end the season, both against Top 8 teams.
17. St George Illawarra Dragons (14 points)
Played 22, Won 4, Lost 18, Points Differential -293
Still to play:
- R26: Sea Eagles (away) L
- R27: Eels (home) L
Best finish: 16th
Predicted finish: 17th
The heavy loss to the Bulldogs all but confirms the Dragons will finish last for 2026. But the future looks bright.
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