Citi Sees World Cup Pressuring Macau GGR, But Views Dip as Temporary

Macau’s casino industry is likely to face a temporary slowdown in gross gaming revenue during the FIFA World Cup 2026, according to Citigroup. The bank said the softer patch could also create a buying opportunity for investors in the city’s gaming stocks, with the tournament expected to draw part of players’ betting budgets away from casinos.

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Tournament Seen As A Drag

Citi said historical patterns suggest major international football tournaments often shift some spending from Macau gaming tables to sports-related betting. With this year’s World Cup running from 11 June to 19 July and featuring an expanded field of 48 teams and 104 matches, the bank believes the impact could be greater than in previous editions.

Analyst George Choi said the most prestigious soccer tournament would likely lead to a near-term slowdown in Macau GGR. He forecast a 10% year-on-year decline in June and a 5% year-on-year drop in July, before what he described as a swift recovery supported by a stronger post-tournament event calendar.

Lessons From Past Tournaments

Citi pointed to UEFA Euro 2024 as a recent example of the way football tournaments can affect Macau’s daily gaming performance. At that time, Macau’s GGR per day was expected to drop to as low as MOP514 million ($63.7 million) per day, down about 17% from the market’s average of MOP620 million on a daily basis for 2024.

The bank also noted that Macau GGR dropped at about the same rate during the FIFA World Cup in 2018 and the UEFA Euro in 2016. Choi noted that if history repeats itself, this year’s tournament could have an even more noticeable effect because of its larger format and the unprecedented total of 104 matches.

Valuation Support For Stocks

Even with the expected short-term weakness, Citi remained positive on Macau gaming equities. The brokerage said valuations across the sector remain below historical averages, which it sees as supportive for investors looking beyond the immediate slowdown.

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Choi added that Macau gaming shares are trading at 7.3 times EV/EBITDA on a forward basis compared to the long-term average of about 11.4 times. According to Citi, there is still room for recovery if the operational trend improves after the games.

Recovery After July

Citi pointed out that there would be a number of entertainment and sporting events in the period following the World Cup that would boost tourism arrivals and the demand for gaming. Citi estimates that GGR would rise by 5.7% year-on-year during H2 of 2026.

According to Choi, there would be an immediate recovery after the event that is due in mid-July, thanks to the many concerts lined up. Some of the catalysts mentioned included concerts by K-pop bands Babymonster, TWS, and Enhypen, as well as Taiwanese singer Zhao Chuan. The events also include the NBA China Games featuring the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks.

According to Citi, the lineup of non-gaming events will make it possible for more tourists to visit and spend in Macau, boosting the GGR growth for the remainder of the year.

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Source: GGR Asia