Macau June GGR Starts Steady as World Cup and High Base Curb Outlook

Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue started June on a solid note, but UBS said a high comparison base and the upcoming FIFA World Cup are likely to lead to a mild year-on-year decline in GGR in both June and July. The banking institution said the first week of the month was broadly stable, even as some pressure is expected to build later in the period.

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First Week Performance

UBS said Macau’s daily average GGR was about MOP700 million, or US$86.7 million, during the first 7 days of June, which was flat year-on-year based on its own channel checks. The bank said the mass daily revenue run-rate was down about 3% to 5% month-on-month, while VIP volume daily run-rate was down about 5% to 8% month-on-month, with VIP hold at roughly 2.9% to 3.1%.

The first-week run rate was also down 4% from about MOP729 million a day in May, which UBS said reflected a seasonal high base. Even so, the decline was smaller than the usual June pullback seen in earlier years. UBS noted that between 2015 and 2019, June GGR had typically been down around 9% month-on-month.

Month-End Pressure

Based on consensus expectations for a full-month daily run rate of approximately MOP695 million, Macau’s casinos would need to generate about MOP694 million per day over the remaining 23 days of June. UBS said that if that level is achieved, June GGR would come in about 1% lower year-on-year and 5% below May.

The bank said the current run rate suggests a stable start, but the rest of the month will need to hold up if the sector is to meet expectations. The first week gives Macau a workable base, yet the monthly picture still depends on whether activity can remain steady through the remainder of June.

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World Cup Effect

As another factor that may impact the earnings of casinos, UBS highlighted the FIFA World Cup event that would be taking place between June 11 and July 19. Along with the tough comparative base, the FIFA World Cup is considered another reason for expecting a slight decrease in GGR for June and July.

The bank said the tougher comparison comes from Macau’s strong second-half performance last year. The monthly growth rate of GGR registered double-digit increases throughout each month from June to December of 2025, except September, when the figure stood at 6%. The September period saw a brief 33-hour closure of the gambling facilities due to Super Typhoon Ragasa.

Seasonal Comparison

UBS said the latest June figures should be viewed against that stronger backdrop, which makes this year’s comparisons more demanding. The combination of last year’s performance and the approaching World Cup means the market is starting the month with a solid base, but not necessarily a clear path to strong growth.

For now, UBS sees Macau’s first week as steady rather than weak, with both mass and VIP segments showing some softness from May’s seasonal peak. The bank’s view is that June and July may still come in slightly below last year, even if the opening stretch of the month remains reasonably firm.

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Source: GGR Asia