World Cup Betting Boom Triggers New Fight Between Sportsbooks and Prediction Markets

Nearly $1.5 billion has already been traded on Polymarket contracts tied to the winner of the 2026 World Cup, and the tournament has not started yet.

For traditional bookmakers, that figure captures both the scale of the opportunity ahead and the growing threat reshaping the sports betting industry. What was once a contest between rival sportsbooks is increasingly becoming a fight against prediction-market operators that have found a way into parts of the U.S. market where conventional betting companies remain restricted.

The timing is difficult to ignore. Beginning June 11, the World Cup will stretch across the United States, Canada and Mexico in its largest format ever. The expansion from 32 to 48 teams increases the schedule from 64 matches to 104, creating more than a month of almost continuous betting activity.

Industry executives see a customer-acquisition opportunity that comes around only once every four years.

Chasing the Tournament Crowd

Flutter and DraftKings have spent months preparing for the influx of bettors expected to arrive during the competition.

Some of the changes are subtle. Others are designed to keep users engaged throughout every phase of a match.

Flutter is rolling out a new gamified experience across parts of its portfolio, including markets linked to specific moments such as penalty kicks. In the United States, the company is also adding 120-minute betting options that account for extra time while expanding shorter-form microbetting products built around individual passages of play.

DraftKings has taken a different route in places, launching a Spanish-language version of its platform ahead of the tournament in an effort to reach a broader audience across North America.

The competitive scramble has become more intense because betting companies are no longer just competing against each other. DraftKings and FanDuel have both introduced prediction-market offerings on their own platforms, using geolocation technology to reach users in states that prohibit traditional sports wagering.

That would have seemed like an unlikely development only a few years ago.

A Different Kind of Competitor

Prediction markets were once discussed largely in the context of elections, economics and financial forecasting. Sports now sit at the center of the business.

Both Polymarket and Kalshi derive most of their activity from sports-related contracts, reflecting how quickly consumer behavior has shifted. The World Cup has become one of the clearest examples of that change. Trading volumes on winner contracts alone have approached $1.5 billion on Polymarket before the opening match.

The appeal is partly regulatory.

Unlike sportsbooks, prediction-market operators function through derivatives-market structures that allow them to reach customers in areas where sports betting remains restricted. That advantage has unsettled established operators, particularly as customer acquisition costs continue to climb.

Executives across the sector have argued that sportsbooks still offer a richer experience through free bets, rewards programs and promotional incentives. Yet those same tools create another problem. Every major tournament increases pressure to spend more on bonuses and marketing campaigns, often with uncertain returns once the event ends.

Veterans of the industry have seen that cycle before.

Large sporting events have historically triggered spending races among operators eager to capture market share. The concern this time is that prediction markets may force bookmakers to push even harder, placing additional strain on margins.

More Matches, More Unknowns

The expanded tournament presents challenges that extend beyond marketing budgets.

Bookmakers are preparing to price hundreds of markets involving teams with limited World Cup history. Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan and Uzbekistan are among the nations making their tournament debuts, introducing fresh variables into models that traditionally rely on years of historical performance data.

The larger field also increases the likelihood of uneven contests. High-scoring games, heavy favorites and lopsided results can produce sharp swings in sportsbook profitability, particularly during the group stage when betting volumes tend to be concentrated around well-known teams.

Executives expect betting volumes to be strong throughout the competition. Predicting how profitable those wagers will be is another matter.

At the same time, prediction-market operators continue pushing beyond the role of alternative betting platform. Kalshi has increasingly promoted sports-event contracts as tools businesses can use to manage financial exposure tied to game outcomes, an approach that has attracted growing regulatory attention as these markets move deeper into sports.

For bookmakers, the World Cup was supposed to be the biggest betting event on the calendar. It still is. The difference now is that the industry’s fastest-growing challengers are not necessarily other sportsbooks, and the battle for customers may continue long after the final whistle in North America.

World Cup Betting Boom Triggers New Fight Between Sportsbooks and Prediction Markets

Chasing the Tournament Crowd

A Different Kind of Competitor

More Matches, More Unknowns

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