Spain Halts Operations for Prediction Giants Polymarket and Kalshi Over Missing Licenses
The digital borders of Spain’s gambling market just closed on two of the world’s largest prediction platforms. In an aggressive regulatory move, the country’s betting watchdog, the Dirección General de Ordenación del Juego, has pulled the plug on access to Polymarket and Kalshi, initiating formal sanction proceedings that will keep both sites dark for Spanish users for at least the next few months.
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The Ministry for Social Rights, Consumer Affairs and Agenda 2030, which oversees the regulator, quietly made the decision public through official state bulletin filings. The core issue is straightforward: Spain considers predicting the future for money to be gambling, and neither platform holds the state-mandated licenses required to take bets from residents.
While the temporary block is slated to last between three and four months, a final, definitive ruling on the permanent status of both operators is still pending.
The regulator’s logic treats these platforms not as cutting-edge financial instruments or forecasting mechanisms, but as traditional betting shops operating without a permit. Under Spanish law, putting money down on an uncertain future event constitutes a wager. Because of that classification, the state expects the same level of oversight it demands from sportsbooks and online casinos.
Regulators flagged several specific vulnerabilities that triggered the swift intervention. Unauthorized sites, the watchdog noted, systematically fail to verify who is actually behind the keyboard. Without these checks, the state argues there is no reliable way to block minors from participating, nor is there a mechanism to prevent individuals who have voluntarily placed themselves on self-exclusion registries due to gambling addiction from risking their money.
Interestingly, the bureaucracy hit a snag before the ban was even implemented. Spanish officials attempted to serve formal regulatory notices to both Polymarket and Kalshi at their registered international addresses, but the correspondence could not be successfully delivered.
The clash in Madrid is part of a much broader, fragmented struggle taking place across the continent. European authorities are fundamentally divided on what a prediction market actually is. While Spain views them strictly through the lens of gaming laws, other jurisdictions are trying to determine if they look more like commodities or financial securities trading.
Spain’s block adds to a growing wall of European resistance against Polymarket in particular. France enacted a similar ban two years ago after determining the platform’s model ran afoul of domestic betting laws. A long list of European nations—including Germany, Belgium, Portugal, Switzerland, Romania, the Netherlands, and Poland—have already implemented blocks of their own.
Yet, a few miles down the road, the perspective flips completely. Some jurisdictions see an economic opportunity where the mainland sees a consumer threat. Gibraltar recently issued its very first license to a prediction market operator, signaling a desire to court the industry. Malta is taking a similar approach; its economy minister, Silvio Schembri, indicated that the island nation is actively looking for ways to build a dedicated regulatory framework rather than issuing a blanket ban.
For Polymarket and Kalshi, the next quarter of a year will likely involve a choice between three paths. Once Spain issues its final decree, the companies will either have to apply for standard gambling licenses, launch a legal challenge against how the state classifies their business model, or tweak their software to block Spanish users permanently.
Source: igamingbusiness.com
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