State of Origin 2026 tips: Betting preview, odds and predictions for Game I

It’s State of Origin time again. 

New South Wales hosts Queensland in this year’s opener amongst a sea of blue at Accor Stadium in Sydney.

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Can the Blues make home advantage count in 2026 as they look to win back the shield? Or will the Maroons get the job done yet again under the guidance of Billy Slater? And… what impact will the new set restart rules have on Origin?

The Sporting News provides predictions and best bets for the Blues vs. Maroons Game I. 

BEST STATE OF ORIGIN ODDS: Betfair — where you find better value than the bookies

Tip 1: NSW to win—just 

Six of the last 8 Game 1 matches have finished with a winning margin of just 1–12 points. Despite NSW being favourites at home, Origin openers are typically tight affairs. A narrow Blues win won’t surprise, and if you’re feeling confident a handicap bet can nudge your price up nicely.

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BEST BET: NSW to win H2H ($1.62)

VALUE BET: NSW to win handicap -6.5 points ($1.99)

Tip 2: Total match points over 41.5 

Game I is notoriously cautious and defence-heavy as both sides feel each other out. But… the current NRL season trends suggest a higher scoring match is very possible this year. So throw history out the window we say.

BEST BET: Over 41.5 points ($1.87)

VALUE BET: Over 46.5 points ($2.42)

Tip 3: NSW to get off to a flyer

The Blues have scored the first try in seven of the last nine Game I matchups and at home there’s every reason to be confident it will happen again on Wednesday night.

BEST BET: NSW to score first try ($1.73)

VALUE BET: NSW to lead at half time/full time ($2.02)

Tip 4: Brian To’o to cross the line

Panthers winger Brian To’o scored a try in every game last year and has eight tries from his last seven Origin matches. He’s the most consistent try scorer in recent Origin history and represents strong value for an anytime try scorer bet.

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BEST BET: Brian To’o anytime try scorer($1.73)

VALUE BET: Brian To’o first try scorer ($8.00)

Betfair prices as at 5:00pm on Monday 25 May 2026. 

MORE STATE OF ORIGIN COVERAGE:

• NSW Blues confirmed team for Game I
• Queensland Maroons confirmed team for Game I