Macau Casinos See Mixed Gains From Baccarat Side Bets as Hold Rates Vary

Live-dealer baccarat side bets have helped Macau casinos improve house edge since their wider adoption in 2024, but the effect has not been uniform across the market. Observers say the results depend heavily on each property’s customer mix and broader market positioning.

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House Edge And Adoption

Ryan Ho Hong Wai, a gaming scholar at Macao Polytechnic University, said side bets generally carry a higher house edge than the main baccarat options, often in the mid-teens. He noted that even limited player adoption can statistically lift overall hold rates. He added that this matches the broad but moderate industry-wide uplift seen in Macau casino hold rates after baccarat side bets were introduced, especially at properties with heavy foot traffic. The changes have been visible across several operators as the market has adjusted to the new offerings. 

Clayton Peister, managing director of casino analytics specialist Differential Labs, also pointed to the value of higher house advantage. He said that, based on a recent review of 200 U.S. casinos’ monthly results, a 10% increase in house advantage tends to translate into a 3% increase in win. He suggested a similar positive effect can be seen in Macau.

Market-Wide Changes

Macau casino play is still dominated by live-dealer baccarat in both the mass and VIP segments, with side bets now in place across both areas since 2024, according to GGRAsia’s periodic site checks. The side bet lineup has also evolved with support from smart table technology. From 2024 onward, the market saw the introduction of new options such as Small 6/Big 6, Lucky 7, and Super Lucky 7. Those additions marked a notable shift in how operators structured baccarat-side betting across the city’s casino floors.

Some operators later moved to refine their offers. Sands China Ltd operated a baccarat progressive jackpot from mid-July 2025, but that offer ended on March 16 this year. Other Macau gaming operators simplified their baccarat side bet selections in the second half of last year across mass-floor and high-limit main-floor games. 

Property-Level Differences

Data compiled by GGRAsia showed year-on-year improvement in non-rolling chip win percentage at a number of Macau casinos during 2024 and 2025, in some cases across consecutive quarters. Gains were seen at The Londoner Macao, MGM Macau, Studio City, Galaxy Macau, and Grand Lisboa Palace.

Rolling chip win percentage also improved year-on-year throughout 2025 at MGM Cotai, City of Dreams Macau, and Galaxy Macau. The Venetian Macao and The Londoner Macao did not show a steady year-on-year rise across 2024 and 2025, but their rolling chip win percentage still exceeded the operator’s expected hold of 3.3% in most quarters during that period. Peister said rolling win percentage is essentially a reflection of house advantage, so a higher edge should naturally feed through to results. He also noted that the non-rolling win is shaped by several other factors beyond house edge alone.

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Client Mix And Positioning

Ho said new properties usually start with lower non-rolling win rates, but those figures can improve as a venue becomes more engaging and players stay longer. He explained that longer play sessions increase hands played, which affects turnover and win percentage. Peister added that another key factor is whether players are wallet-constrained or time-constrained. In his view, properties with wallet-constrained patrons are more likely to see only modest benefits from side bets, since the higher edge can make players lose faster.

Ho also said shifts inside an operator’s own portfolio can matter. He noted that when companies run multiple properties, marketing resources, loyalty programmes, and key clientele may shift toward one venue, leaving another with a lower-value customer pool.

Volatility In Results

Ho said side bets were available to all operators and were expected to benefit venues in broadly similar ways, but the market’s actual divergence suggests that property-specific factors remain important. He pointed to seasonal swings in customer mix, floor and dealer promotions, and each casino’s competitive position as possible reasons for the differences.

He also said maintaining market share in Macau does not guarantee a stable hold rate. Gaming results are inherently noisy from quarter to quarter because luck plays a central role, which can make trends harder to read even when fundamentals have not changed.

Ho added that high-performing properties may also face mathematical ceiling effects and mean reversion. In those cases, further gains from side bets or smart table features become harder to secure as results move back toward longer-term averages.

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Source: GGR Asia