NRL

There are just three rounds left before the 2026 NRL Finals and the race for the top eight is narrowing.

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Last season the cut-off for the finals was 32 competition points and that looks like being the case once again this year.

The Sporting News takes a closer look at the run home for all 17 NRL teams and makes weekly predictions on who will make it to the post-season in 2026.

Here’s our take heading into NRL Round 25 (teams listed in current ladder order):

1. Sydney Roosters (38 points)

Played 21, Won 16, Lost 5, Points Differential +157

Still to play:

• R25: Tigers (home) W
• R26: Dolphins (home) W
• R27: Rabbitohs (away) W

Best finish: 1st

Predicted finish: 1st

The Roosters continue to meet every challenge with the finals less than a month away. The win over the Panthers puts them in the box seat for the minor premiership and only a disastrous loss of form will see them miss the top two from here.

2. Penrith Panthers (36 points)

Played 21, Won 15 Lost 6, Points Differential +286

Still to play:

• R25: Storm (away) W
• R26: Bulldogs (home) W
• R27: Tigers (home) W

Best finish: 1st

Predicted finish: 3rd

Things are starting to get serious for the Panthers who have now won just three of their last eight matches. The defeat to the Chooks means they drop from top spot on the ladder for the first time since Round 3. The Storm and Bulldogs will be smelling blood in the next fortnight and should the Panthers drop one, or both, of these matches they may even finish outside the top two.

3. New Zealand Warriors (36 points)

Played 21, Won 15, Lost 6, Points Differential +276

Still to play:

• R25: Rabbitohs (away) W
• R26: Knights (home) W
• R27: Sea Eagles (home) W

Best finish: 1st

Predicted finish: 2nd

With Penrith losing to the Roosters to Warriors now have a genuine shot at the top two with just a slender for and against margin (-10) now separating them from the stumbling Panthers. Injuries in the halves continue to be their biggest worry with Luke Metcalf set to join Te Maire Martin on the sidelines after suffering a hamstring strain again Brisbane.

4. Dolphins (34 points)

Played 21, Won 14, Lost 7, Points Differential +120

Still to play:

• R25: Eels (home) W
• R26: Roosters (away) L
• R27: Titans (away) W

Best finish: Top 4

Predicted finish: 4th

The Dolphins needed to sort out their defence and they did just that with a 22-0 shutout of the Sea Eagles. Still work to do but knocking on the door of a top-four finish with the Sharks stumbling again. Their away clash with the Roosters in Round 26 will be the ultimate pre-finals litmus test.

5. Cronulla Sharks (32 points)

Played 21, Won 13, Lost 8, Points Differential +165

Still to play:

• R25: Titans (away) W
• R26: Eels (away) W
• R27: Storm (home) L

Best finish: Top 4

Predicted finish: 5th

The Sharks have dropped consecutive matches and fallen out of the top four. Even worse, star five-eighth Braydon Trindall may not return until the finals in a major blow. The Knights and Rabbitohs are breathing down their necks for a home final in week one, but their for and against is superior to both and that may be enough if they can start winning again.

6. Newcastle Knights (32 points)

Played 21, Won 13, Lost 8, Points Differential +76

Still to play:

• R25: Sea Eagles (home) W
• R26: Warriors (away) L
• R27: Bye

Best finish: Top 4

Predicted finish: 6th

The Knights got the job done against the Titans and have guaranteed themselves finals footy just a year after finishing with the wooden spoon. If they can keep winning they’re still a sneaky shot at the top four, and certainly a home final in week one. Working against them, the Sharks have a significantly better for and against.

7. South Sydney Rabbitohs (30 points)

Played 21, Won 12, Lost 9, Points Differential +82

Still to play:

• R25: Warriors (home) L
• R26: Titans (away) W
• R27: Roosters (away) L

Best finish: Top 4

Predicted finish: 8th

The win against the Bulldogs was massive and the Rabbitohs will surely plays finals now despite two of their remaining three matches being against top four sides. The final round grudge match against the Roosters next month will be massive as they push to secure a home final in week one.

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8. North Queensland Cowboys (28 points)

Played 22, Won 12, Lost 10, Points Differential -78

Still to play:

• R25: Bye
• R26: Tigers (home) W
• R27: Raiders (home) W

Best finish: 5th

Predicted finish: 7th

The away loss to the Eels hurts, a lot, but with the bye this week they’re still looking solid to make the Top 8 with their final two matches at home.

9. Canterbury Bulldogs (26 points)

Played 21, Won 10, Lost 11, Points Differential -62

Still to play:

• R25: Dragons (home) W
• R26: Panthers (away) L
• R27: Broncos (home) W

Best finish: 6th

Predicted finish: 9th

The loss to the Bunnies wasn’t terminal, but it definitely hurts. The Doggies need to lick their wounds given 32 points is still within reach, but they can’t afford another slip up. It’s going to be close.

10. Manly Sea Eagles (24 points)

Played 21, Won 9 Lost 12, Points Differential +90

Still to play:

• R25: Knights (away) L
• R26: Dragons (home) W
• R27: Warriors (away) L

Best finish: 8th

Predicted finish: 12th

Six losses in a row and things are looking grim at Brookvale. Even if the Sea Eagles can turn things around and win their final three matches it may not be enough as the finals cut-off looks like being 32 points this year.

11. Melbourne Storm (24 points)

Played 21, Won 10, Lost 11, Points Differential -4

Still to play:

• R25: Panthers (home) L
• R26: Broncos (away) W
• R27: Sharks (away) W

Best finish: 8th

Predicted finish: 10th

The Storm get some key troops back after the bye led by skipper Harry Grant. If they’re able to beat the Panthers, Broncos and Sharks they can still reach 30 points but that’s unlikely to be enough.

12. Canberra Raiders (24 points)

Played 22, Won 10, Lost 12, Points Differential -61

Still to play:

• R25: Broncos (home) W
• R26: Bye
• R27: Cowboys (away) L

Best finish: 8th

Predicted finish: 11th

The Raiders kept their mathematical finals hopes alive with a surprise away result over the Sharks. But even if they win all of their remaining matches and other results go their way, it’s unlikely to be enough given the superior for and against of the teams immediately ahead of them. The big news this week is it’s Josh Papali’i’s final home match as a Raider, so it will feel like a final anyway.

13. Parramatta Eels (22 points)

Played 22, Won 8, Lost 13, Points Differential -181

Still to play:

• R25: Dolphins (away) L
• R26: Sharks (home) L
• R27: Dragons (away) W

Best finish: 10th

Predicted finish: 13th

Stunned the Cowboys in Round 24 but face a tough run home, beginning with the Dolphins at Suncorp. Finals are out of reach so it’s all about building for 2027.

14. Wests Tigers (20 points)

Played 21, Won 7, Lost 14, Points Differential -213

Still to play:

• R25: Roosters (away) L
• R26: Cowboys (away) L
• R27: Panthers (away) L

Best finish: 10th

Predicted finish: 14th

The loss to the Dragons is now followed by three brutal away games to end the season against Top 8 sides. It’s been another crazy year for Tigers fans and it can’t end soon enough.

15. Gold Coast Titans (18 points)

Played 21, Won 6, Lost 15, Points Differential -154

Still to play:

• R25: Sharks (home) L
• R26: Rabbitohs (home) L
• R27: Dolphins (home) L

Best finish: 12th

Predicted finish: 15th

Another loss in Round 24, but the Titans were far from disgraced against the Knights. The good news is their remaining games are all at home. The bad news is they’re all against Top 8 teams.

16. Brisbane Broncos (18 points)

Played 21, Won 6, Lost 15, Points Differential -198

Still to play:

• R25: Raiders (away) L
• R26: Storm (home) L
• R27: Bulldogs (away) L

Best finish: 13th

Predicted finish: 16th

Embarrassed again at home, this time by the Warriors. The reigning NRL premiers can’t wait for the off season — but first they need to find at least one more win to be sure of avoiding the wooden spoon in one of rugby league’s worst single-season implosions.

17. St George Illawarra Dragons (14 points)

Played 21, Won 4, Lost 17, Points Differential -263

Still to play:

• R25: Bulldogs (away) L
• R26: Sea Eagles (away) L
• R27: Eels (home) L

Best finish: 15th

Predicted finish: 17th

The Dragons have won consecutive games and there are green shoots everywhere you look. If the Broncos keep losing there’s even an outside chance they can still avoid the wooden spoon. The Doggies will be on high alert.

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