NRL

There are just five rounds left before the 2026 NRL Finals and the race for the top eight is tight, as is the top four.

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Last season the cut-off for the finals was 32 competition points, while 30 was enough in 2024.

The Sporting News takes a closer look at the run home for all 17 NRL teams and makes weekly predictions on who will make it to the post-season in 2026.

Here’s our take heading into NRL Round 23 (teams listed in current ladder order):

1. Penrith Panthers (36 points)

Played 19, Won 15 Lost 4, Points Differential +308

Still to play:

• R23: Warriors (away) W
• R24: Roosters (home) W
• R25: Storm (away) W
• R26: Bulldogs (home) W
• R27: Tigers (home) W

Best finish: 1st

Predicted finish: 1st

Flexed their premiership muscles against the Raiders and remain favourites to lift the NRL trophy on the first Sunday in October. The main challengers are becoming much clearer and with the Panthers’ next two matches against the Warriors and Roosters, the coming fortnight will reveal plenty.

2. Sydney Roosters (34 points)

Played 19, Won 14, Lost 5, Points Differential +155

Still to play:

• R23: Bulldogs (home) W
• R24: Panthers (away) L
• R25: Tigers (home) W
• R26: Dolphins (home) W
• R27: Rabbitohs (away) W

Best finish: 1st

Predicted finish: 2nd

The Roosters were scary as they demolished the Cowboys in Townsville, throwing down the gauntlet to the Panthers as heavyweight premiership challengers. The two sides meet in Round 24 in a clash that may decide the minor premiership.

3. New Zealand Warriors (32 points)

Played 19, Won 13, Lost 6, Points Differential +226

Still to play:

• R23: Panthers (home) L
• R24: Broncos (away) L
• R25: Rabbitohs (away) W
• R26: Knights (home) W
• R27: Sea Eagles (home) W

Best finish: 1st

Predicted finish: 4th

The Warriors are on track to finish inside the top four and should the Roosters slip up a top two spot is still very much within reach. This week’s home match-up with Penrith should be an absolute beauty.

4. Cronulla Sharks (32 points)

Played 19, Won 13, Lost 6, Points Differential +177

Still to play:

• R23: Dragons (away) W
• R24: Raiders (home) W
• R25: Titans (away) W
• R26: Eels (away) W
• R27: Storm (home) L

Best finish: 1st

Predicted finish: 3rd

The Sharks just keep winning and face a reasonably comfortable run to the finals with all remaining games against lower-ranked teams. Top four is looking highly likely, if not the top two, thanks to a strong for and against.

5. Dolphins (30 points)

Played 19, Won 12, Lost 7, Points Differential +90

Still to play:

• R23: Broncos (home) W
• R24: Sea Eagles (away) L
• R25: Eels (home) W
• R26: Roosters (away) L
• R27: Titans (away) W

Best finish: Top 4

Predicted finish: 5th

Star half Isaiya Katoa is back and the Dolphins are pretty much at full strength heading into the business end of the season. If the Sharks or Warriors slip up a top four spot is there for the taking.

6. Newcastle Knights (28 points)

Played 20, Won 12, Lost 8, Points Differential +60

Still to play:

• R23: Raiders (away) L
• R24: Titans (home) W
• R25: Sea Eagles (home) L
• R26: Warriors (away) L
• R27: Bye

Best finish: Top 4

Predicted finish: 8th

Despite losing two of their best players for the season, the Knights bounced back hard against the Broncos to keep their finals hopes very much alive. They still have to face the Raiders and Warriors away, but last year’s wooden spooners should get to 32 points which should be enough.

7. South Sydney Rabbitohs (26 points)

Played 19, Won 10, Lost 9, Points Differential +62

Still to play:

• R23: Eels (home) W
• R24: Bulldogs (home) L
• R25: Warriors (home) L
• R26: Titans (away) W
• R27: Roosters (away) L

Best finish: Top 4

Predicted finish: 9th

The Round 22 loss to the Sharks hurts. But the Rabbitohs are still in the mix and simply must beat the Eels this week. Home matches follow against the Bulldogs and Warriors that will likely determine their finals fate for 2026. A final round grudge match against the red-hot Roosters looms as a potential nightmare scenario next month.

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8. Canterbury Bulldogs (26 points)

Played 19, Won 10, Lost 9, Points Differential -44

Still to play:

• R23: Roosters (away) L
• R24: Rabbitohs (home) W
• R25: Dragons (home) W
• R26: Panthers (away) L
• R27: Broncos (home) W

Best finish: 5th

Predicted finish: 7th

The Bulldogs are back in the eight and knocking on the door of the finals. They still have the Roosters, Bunnies, Panthers and Broncos in a brutal end to the season, but they’re playing good footy and nearing full strength. We reckon they’ll make it, possibly on for and against.

9. North Queensland Cowboys (26 points)

Played 20, Won 11, Lost 9, Points Differential -98

Still to play:

• R23: Titans (away) L
• R24: Eels (away) W
• R25: Bye
• R26: Tigers (home) W
• R27: Raiders (home) W

Best finish: Top 4

Predicted finish: 6th

The Cowboys were embarrassed at home by the Roosters in Round 22 and the scars of that demoralising loss may be hard to repair. They’ve slipped to ninth, but their remaining games are now all against teams outside the top 8. They should still make it, but will need to bounce back quickly in a major test of Todd Payten’s ability to lift his team off the cavas.

10. Manly Sea Eagles (24 points)

Played 19, Won 9 Lost 10, Points Differential +90

Still to play:

• R23: Storm (Perth) L
• R24: Dolphins (home) W
• R25: Knights (away) L
• R26: Dragons (home) W
• R27: Warriors (away) L

Best finish: 7th

Predicted finish: 10th

The Sea Eagles have lost their last four matches and face an uphill battle to play finals. The good news is they picked up two points in Round 22 for the bye and will be hoping to make a fresh surge for September. If they do make the top eight, it will be only just.

11. Canberra Raiders (22 points)

Played 20, Won 9, Lost 11, Points Differential -59

Still to play:

• R23: Knights (home) W
• R24: Sharks (away) L
• R25: Broncos (home) W
• R26: Bye
• R27: Cowboys (away) L

Best finish: 7th

Predicted finish: 11th

The heavy Round 22 defeat to the Panthers in Mudgee was a costly one for the Raiders’ dwindling finals chances. Technically they’re still in it, but can’t afford another slip up.

12. Melbourne Storm (20 points)

Played 20, Won 9, Lost 11, Points Differential -26

Still to play:

• R23: Sea Eagles (Perth) W
• R24: Bye
• R25: Panthers (home) L
• R26: Broncos (away) W
• R27: Sharks (away) W

Best finish: 9th

Predicted finish: 12th

Injuries continue to cripple the Storm and the Bulldogs loss at home has almost certainly ended their 2026 hopes. Need to win every game and have results go their way for any chance now.

13. Parramatta Eels (20 points)

Played 20, Won 7, Lost 12, Points Differential -179

Still to play:

• R23: Rabbitohs, (away) L
• R24: Cowboys (home) L
• R25: Dolphins (away) L
• R26: Sharks (home) L
• R27: Dragons (away) W

Best finish: 9th

Predicted finish: 13th

Beat the Tigers to move ahead of the Titans and Broncos, but with a tough run home they may struggle to win again in 2026.

14. Gold Coast Titans (18 points)

Played 19, Won 6, Lost 13, Points Differential -122

Still to play:

• R23: Cowboys (home) W
• R24: Knights (away) L
• R25: Sharks (home) L
• R26: Rabbitohs (home) L
• R27: Dolphins (home) L

Best finish: 10th

Predicted finish: 16th

The Titans copped a major reality check from the Warriors last weekend when they were humbled at Robina. Four of their remaining five games are at home but they’ll do well to pick up a couple of wins from here.

15. Brisbane Broncos (18 points)

Played 19, Won 6, Lost 13, Points Differential -156

Still to play:

• R23: Dolphins (away) L
• R24: Warriors (home) W
• R25: Raiders (away) L
• R26: Storm (home) L
• R27: Bulldogs (away) L

Best finish: 12th

Predicted finish: 15th

Another disappointing home loss in Round 22, this time to the injury-hit Knights. The reigning NRL premiers will find themselves second last if they lose to the Dolphins this weekend. A massive fall from grace.

16. Wests Tigers (18 points)

Played 20, Won 7, Lost 13, Points Differential -211

Still to play:

• R23: Bye
• R24: Dragons (home) W
• R25: Roosters (away) L
• R26: Cowboys (away) L
• R27: Panthers (away) L

Best finish: 12th

Predicted finish: 14th

Seven straight losses for the Tigers who, mercifully, will pick up two points in Round 23 for the bye. Despite all the promise to begin the season, another bottom three finish is looming large.

17. St George Illawarra Dragons (10 points)

Played 19, Won 2, Lost 17, Points Differential -273

Still to play:

• R23: Sharks (home) L
• R24: Tigers (away) L
• R25: Bulldogs (away)  L
• R26: Sea Eagles (away) L
• R27: Eels (home) L

Best finish: 16th

Predicted finish: 17th

Another loss, this time to the finals-bound Dolphins — but the Dragons were far from disgraced. Better days await in 2027 as the club continues to make all the right recruitment moves.

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