ANJL President Claims Betting Study Inflates Figures and Points to R$100 Billion Miscalculation in Brazil

The recent study carried out by the CNC (National Confederation of Commerce) claimed that online betting costed R$143.8 billion in the retail trade of the country. Though the amount attracted a lot of attention, some representatives of the industry believe that the amount was estimated using incorrect assumptions.

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Plínio Lemos Jorge, ANJL (National Association of Games and Lotteries) president, elaborated on the matter in his published article, mentioning the most notable distortions made during the research.

Mismatch Between Official Data and Estimated Figures

As Brazil’s Ministry of Finance reported, the regulated betting sector brought R$37 billion in terms of GGR (gaming revenue). This is considered a standard measure of actual consumer expenditure in the sphere.

Nevertheless, according to CNC’s data, the sector shows a monthly turnover amounting to approximately R$29 billion. This means that the yearly figure could exceed R$340 billion.

According to Plínio Lemos Jorge, the mismatch between these figures proves a misunderstanding of the betting market economics.

Confusion Between Turnover and Consumer Expenditure

The first thing Plínio Lemos Jorge mentions regarding the study is the confusion between the total turnover of transactions and net consumer expenditure. Users deposit funds into a betting platform and make many bets; some of these are won, providing them with additional funds, which can be used once again or withdrawn. Consequently, the money might circulate multiple times in a single betting session. Adding up all transactions as final consumer expenditure causes their artificial inflation.

The ANJL’s president compares this approach with counting each transaction as the final expenditure of users in general without accounting for their behavior.

Lack of Proven Links between Gambling and Increased Households’ Debt

The CNC report also suggests that there is a relationship between increased betting activity and household indebtedness. Nevertheless, the author states that this assumption lacks factual support.

He mentions the report saying that there is no evidence of families acquiring debt in order to be able to bet in the first place.

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Diverse Profile of Betting Users and Their Financial Behavior

Ministry of Finance and Pay4Fun’s statistics prove that there are 28 million people participating in betting in Brazil. Moreover, their spending varies: 53.3% of them spend R$50 or less, while 19.5% of people make bets costing more than R$1,000.

It should also be mentioned that LCA Economic Consultancy estimated the average monthly net expenditure at R$122 per person, which amounts to 3.3% of their income.

Debt of Families Is Caused by Structural Problems

Though Plínio Lemos Jorge agrees with the notion that households are in debt, he believes that betting contributes little to this problem.

In his article, Jorge writes that families have debts because of the current structure of the economy: interest rates are extremely high, credit cards are expensive, and salaries are not enough to maintain the required budget.

As per data provided in the article, interest expenditures make up 8.6% of household incomes. On average, the revolving rate of credit cards amounts to 438%, while default rate equals 64.5%.

On average, Brazilians have a debt of R$6,346. According to calculations of the ANJL president, this sum requires 52 months of consecutive spending.

Other Trends Impacting People’s Finances

Another reason to criticize the CNC report is that household expenditure trends change due to many reasons. Plínio Lemos Jorge mentioned the increased food e-commerce by 31% in 2025 and the growing popularity of delivery apps. Thus, the changes in consumers’ behavior are not caused by betting only.

Concluding, Plínio Lemos Jorge asks for better approaches to analyzing the issue. “The bottom line is straightforward: the debate around betting should be based on sound reasoning. It will not help if the public ignores the burden of income commitment caused by record-high interest rates to blame some scapegoat. Brazilian citizens deserve proper public policies. And proper public policies require numbers that make sense“, he said.

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Source: iGaming Brasil