The iGaming Market in Mexico Stops its Four-Year Upward Trajectory

According to Blask’s most recent market analysis, the iGaming industry’s four-year growth streak was eventually broken by higher taxation.

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Since the start of 2022, the iGaming market in Mexico has been steadily expanding. Blask’s data indicates that the multiyear rise was not reversed by two brief flat periods along the way. In response to an increase in tax rates, the trend changed in early 2026 and saw the greatest decrease on record.

Four years of development

Mexico’s Blask Index increased six times between January 2022 and December 2025. Growth was +42.4% in 2023, +59% in 2024, and +52.9% in 2025. There were just two brief periods of flat demand for iGaming over these four years. The market started to grow both times again. During those four years, the competitive environment also changed. With 31.7% of the nation’s Blask Index in January 2022, Caliente was in the leading position, followed by Bet365 at 24.3%. Bet365’s share fell to 3.2% by December 2025. The percentage of Caliente has increased to 40.2%.

The greatest decline details

Mexico’s Blask Index dropped 35% from its peak in December 2025 in the first two months of 2026. The majority of the drop was absorbed by the onshore segment; foreign brands lost less than 7% of their Brand Index, while local licensed brands lost 34%. The increase in tax rates was the primary cause of the decline. Mexico levies a government excise tax called IEPS (Impuesto Especial sobre Produción y Servicios) on the gambling sector. The tariff was increased from 30% to 50% in the fall of 2025, with effect from January 1, 2026. Revenues are subject to the IEPS. Operators have much less money to spend on player acquisition, bonuses, and promotions at 50%.

With a 50% increased tax rate, “the reform is economically prohibitive for most verticals unless the base changes, the rate comes down, or operators can pass through significant cost,” according to Dmitriy Belianin, co-founder and managing partner of Blask. However, he believes that it only changes the structural picture.

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Indications of stability

The demand for iGaming in Mexico increased in March. In comparison to February, the Blask Index increased by 4%. The criteria for stability are clear, but Dmitriy Belianin points out that a single positive month following two steep drops is a halt rather than a pivot. According to Blask’s co-founder, “Q2 needs to show threefold for this to be read as real stabilisation.” First, there should be equality among the top five operators, rather than having one brand improve while others remain stable or continue to decline. According to Belianin, “when stabilisation is real, you see the floor hold across the competitive set, not just the leader.”

Second, the monthly reduction of the Blask Index has to end. The analyst states, “We would want to see at least two consecutive months where the gap between leaders and the mid-tier narrows, which is typically the sign that marketing spend is returning to the market.” Signs of brand reactivation or new entrant activity are the third requirement for Q2. Demand for sponsored searches declines four to six weeks after operators reduce their performance costs. It is unstable if the March improvement was driven by organic demand rather than spending.

What comes next

Over the course of four years, Mexico’s iGaming sector expanded six times without experiencing any indications of downfall. With effect from January 2026, the IEPS hike was changed from 30% to 50%, with local licensed operators facing the majority of the impact while international brands maintained their position. The first signs of recovery appeared in March, but Q2 will decide if this indicates a steady progress start or a stop.

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Source: Blask.com