NFL Tells Supreme Court Sports Prediction Markets Belong Under State Gambling Laws

The National Football League has urged the US Supreme Court to take up the growing legal dispute over prediction markets, arguing that sports event contracts are a form of gambling and should remain subject to state gambling laws.

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In an amicus brief supporting a petition against Kalshi, the league said the current legal uncertainty is creating risks for game integrity and consumer protection.

The filing marks one of the NFL’s most direct interventions in the prediction market debate to date, with the league warning that federally regulated event contracts are being offered outside the safeguards that apply to traditional sportsbooks.

According to the NFL, the issue goes beyond legal definitions and could shape how billions of dollars in sports-related trading is regulated in the years ahead

NFL argues prediction markets lack the safeguards found in state-regulated betting

The league told the court that protecting the integrity of its games remains its top priority and argued that prediction markets currently operate under a much lighter regulatory framework than state-regulated sportsbooks.

In the filing, the NFL said sports-related event contracts now account for a significant portion of activity on prediction markets, noting that more than half of all prediction market trading volume on the first Sunday of the current NFL season was linked to NFL games.

The league backed the position taken by the Sixth and Ninth Circuit Courts, which concluded that sports event contracts do not meet the legal definition of a “swap” under federal law. The brief argues that these products do not help users manage existing financial risk and instead create risk for gambling purposes.

The league also raised concerns about protections currently available within prediction markets. It said state regulators and licensed sportsbooks have worked with sports leagues for years to introduce controls designed to protect competitions from manipulation.

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According to the NFL, those safeguards include restrictions on certain bet types, information-sharing arrangements, and monitoring systems designed to identify suspicious activity.

“The NFL has no greater priority … than protecting the integrity of our sport,” the brief stated.

League warns federal control would reshape state gambling regulation

Beyond the integrity concerns, the NFL argued that the legal interpretation backed by Kalshi could significantly change the balance between federal and state gambling regulation.

The league said gambling has traditionally been regulated by individual states and cautioned against reading federal law in a way that would effectively place sports betting under the control of a federal agency.

The filing criticises the Third Circuit’s conclusion that sports event contracts qualify as swaps, saying that interpretation ignores the historical purpose of derivatives markets. The NFL argued that swaps have traditionally been used to manage existing commercial risks, while sports event contracts are primarily used by consumers for speculation and gambling.

It also pointed to previous decisions from the Sixth and Ninth Circuits, which reached the opposite conclusion and found that sports prediction contracts create risk rather than hedge it.

“It is important that this Court grant certiorari now to provide clarity before another NFL season goes by,” the league stated.

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