Football

Manchester City were rocked on September 25 by a report that emerged stating they had been found guilty on all but one of the 115 Premier League charges brought against the club.

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Four days after The Athletic broke the story, the league itself confirmed in a statement that an independent commission had found the club guilty «of all charges related to serious breaches of the Premier League’s financial rules over a nine-season period, and the majority of charges in relation to its failure to co-operate with the League’s investigation.»

Manchester City have consistently denied any wrongdoing in the matter, citing «the comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence that exists in support of its position». The club insists it was «disappointed and surprised» by the decision of the commission and vowed to be «relentless, and where necessary proactive, in any and all appropriate regulatory and legal forums» to clear its name.

Given the unprecedented nature of City’s wrongdoing, speculation is already rife over how severe the punishment might be, particularly with the league itself saying it has not yet reached a decision on what comes next.

Will Man City be relegated?

The Premier League’s rules give scope to impose a range of punishments following a guilty verdict, from being fined and ordered to pay costs to expulsion from the league. The full list is as follows:

• Suspend a club from playing league matches
• Points deduction
• Recommend to the board that league matches be replayed
• Recommend to the board that the league expels respondent club
• Order compensation
• Cancel or refuse registration of players
• Conditional punishment
• Order the club to pay costs
• Make such other order as it thinks fit

The unprecedented nature of the charges, which predominantly comes back to revelations published by whistleblower Football Leaks in 2018 that City artificially inflated sponsorship income using owner funds, means nothing is theoretically off the table.

Expulsion from the league feels like a nuclear option and would presumably leave City needing to apply to join the Football League or even a rung lower down the English football pyramid.

That would be different to relegation, which could be effectively secured by a huge points deduction. Nottingham Forest (four) and Everton (six) were docked points for relatively minor PSR breaches in 2024, so simply extrapolating that would leave City in a tough spot.

Still, with the likelihood of a City appeal, we are still probably — at best — months away from a resolution. There are a couple of instances from recent sporting history that perhaps serve as useful measuring sticks.

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Calciopoli scandal

In 2006, a corruption scandal uncovered in Italian football led to Juventus being stripped of their 2004-05 and 2005-06 Serie A titles, downgraded to last place in the latter season and relegated to Serie B. AC Milan, Fiorentina, Lazio and Reggina also had points deducted.

The most shocking revelations in Calciopoli concerned officials, including then Juventus president Luciano Moggi, pressuring referees to ensure various favourable outcomes for Juve.

This is an example that is easy to reach for when considering the possibility of City being relegated for breaking Premier League rules, but there are a couple of aspects to consider.

Firstly, there is the passage of time. Juventus were punished over information that was discovered by the Naples prosecutor in relation to games and activities from the seasons when they were stripped of the title. , the most severe allegations against City run from the early to mid 2010s. We appear to have reached the end-game in 2026, almost eight years after investigations began. There is so much water under the bridge.

Secondly, refereeing decisions to influence the outcome of matches have a clearer cause and effect than financial wrongdoing. No doubt, City’s lavish spending from their era of Abu Dhabi ownership has underwritten a period of success that now seems likely to be tarnished. But plenty of very expensive soccer players and teams lose matches and championships. There are more degrees of separation here than in Calciopoli.

Saracens salary cap scandal

Perhaps the most useful case for reference concerns another champion club from elsewhere in English sport.

Saracens rugby union team was found to have breached salary cap regulations by failing to disclose player payments in each of the 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons. The London-based team won the Premiership title in the latter two of those seasons and were also European champions in 2016-17 and 2018-19

Following an initial 35-point deduction, Saracens were confirmed as relegated to the RFU Championship for the 2020-21 season in January 2020, when a further 70-point penalty was applied due to a lack of cooperation in a mid-season audit to prove compliance for 2019-20.

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