Macau Casino GGR May Fall 5% in October, Seaport Forecasts

Macau casino gross gaming revenue is expected to fall 5% year-over-year in October due to weak demand, according to Seaport Research Partners. This implies that the GGR for October will likely be around MOP22.9 billion or US$2.83 billion.

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Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky said the October comparison will also be affected by a high casino win rate recorded during the same month last year. The forecast is made based on the results of September in Macau, which saw its fourth consecutive month of GGR drop on a yearly basis.

September Macau casino GGR dropped 1.2% year-on-year to MOP18.06 billion. However, despite the current monthly drop, the overall GGR in the first 9 months of 2026 stood at about MOP187.12 billion, 3.2% more than last year.

September Results Show Softer Demand

Seaport said September’s GGR result was close to its forecast of a 1% year-on-year decline. However, the comparison was relatively easy because typhoons affected the casino business in September last year.

September GGR declined 17.5% from August. Umansky said the sequential decrease was larger than the more typical decline of around 8% between the 2 months.

The analyst said soft demand may be linked to weaker macroeconomic conditions in China. He also pointed to Chinese government tax enforcement involving offshore trusts, which could affect high-net-worth people with overseas assets.

Seaport estimated that VIP GGR grew by a low-single-digit percentage year-on-year in September. The increase was supported by a high win rate.

Mass-market GGR, however, was estimated to have fallen by a low-single-digit percentage compared with September last year. The different performance of VIP and mass-market gaming formed part of Seaport’s assessment of the September result.

The weaker demand conditions are expected to continue into October. Seaport’s forecast of a 5% year-on-year GGR decline reflects the institution’s view that the market is facing a difficult comparison and continued softness.

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VIP Segment Faces Pressure

Other institutions have also identified concerns affecting Macau’s VIP gaming segment. CreditSights said tighter regulatory scrutiny could remain an issue for Macau’s casino industry by weakening high-roller sentiment.

The research firm said additional scrutiny would likely have a secondary effect on GGR because gambling funding channels are already subject to strict controls. However, it could still affect the confidence of VIP customers.

The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, has also said Macau’s VIP segment is likely to remain a relatively small part of overall casino revenue over the medium term. The IMF said this could happen despite signs of recovery in the segment.

Since the pandemic, Macau’s casino industry has moved towards mass market gaming. The International Monetary Fund noted that the stricter regulations on junket operators, which included licensing, credit restrictions, and anti-money laundering provisions, brought changes in the VIP gaming industry.

Seaport’s September estimates showed modest VIP growth, supported by hold, while the mass-market segment recorded a decline. Both outlooks continue to be relevant as Macau moves into the fourth quarter of the year.

Outlook for 2026 and 2027

According to Seaport, the Macau GGR fell by 3.8% year-on-year in the third quarter. Seaport projects the GGR in the fourth quarter to stay flat compared to last year.

The research firm projects a Macau GGR growth rate of 2.3% for 2026, as well as a 3% growth rate in 2027.

Umansky said a recovery in the base mass-market segment would be important for maintaining growth. He highlighted overnight visitors as a key group for this recovery.

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Source: GGR Asia