Palver Survey Finds Betting Ban Has Limited Influence on Brazilian Voters

Fixed-odds betting is supported by 65% of the respondents in a Palver survey, and the measure could affect the presidential election according to only 1% of respondents. The survey arrives as gambling is increasingly part of the political discussion ahead of the 2026 elections as the government’s prohibition enters the fray.

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The study found that 18% of respondents disagreed with the ban, 6 percent did not know, and 11% did not know about the proposal. Asked specifically about the possible effect of this measure on their voting, 52% indicated that it would have no impact on their vote and 34% pointed to a voter decision that had already been made.

Limited Electoral Impact Reported Among Flávio Bolsonaro Voters

This figure was the same as the 1% of respondents who said the betting ban would change their vote in favor of Flávio Bolsonaro. If elected, the ban on online casinos would be part of Bolsonaro’s agenda, as he has stated that he would keep sports betting going while banning online casinos.

Palver also directly questioned voters on their voting preferences. In the first round, in which the candidates’ names were displayed, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro each got 44%. If the two were in a runoff matchup, Bolsonaro would get 47% while Lula would get 45%. The two-point gap is within the margin of error of the survey, which ranges from 2.4 percentage points.

Palver Survey Conducted Around Date of Betting Ban

The Palver survey was conducted on the Internet from September 24 to 27 with a margin of error of 95%. Some respondents gave their views before and after the government announced the betting ban on 25th September, so some answers to the questions were made before the ban was officially announced.

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This is important in the context of the results of the ban’s impact on elections. The findings show that the majority of the respondents did not find the issue the main factor when they decided to vote for a President, but a smaller portion felt it strengthened their initial decision.

Quaest Reports Different Electoral Scenario

But a separate survey by Quaest gave a different view of the presidential race. Lula got 39% of the votes in his first-round scenario, while Flavio Bolsonaro got 34%. The margin of error on the previous Quaest survey was not reported, but the results were 37% for Lula and 33% for Bolsonaro.

The candidates were tied at 42% in a second-round contest, if one is to come to pass, Quaest discovered. The previous survey gave Flávio Bolsonaro 42% and Lula 41%, too, suggesting close competition within the range of the survey’s margin of error.

The Quaest poll surveyed 2,004 people, aged 16 and older, from September 24-27, with a margin of error of plus or minus two points and a 95% confidence level. The divergent findings of the two surveys provide a comparison of the effects that different survey designs, samples, and fieldwork dates can have on voter attitudes.

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Source: SBC Noticias