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Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season is here, meaning a quarter of the season is almost finished. With 14 of the 32 teams under .500 at either 1-2 or 0-3, some head coaches are feeling the proverbial hot seat. Even fans of some perceived underachieving 2-1 teams are getting antsy.

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Taking a survey of league betting sites that list the odds of the first coach fired, here’s a take on all the most notable coaches on the board, listed in order from those on the hottest seats to those who should not even break a sweat about losing their jobs anytime soon. 

NFL WEEK 4 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread

NFL coaches on the hot seat

Feeling the most heat

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1. Todd Bowles, Buccaneers

Bowles is the odds-on favorite to be the first coach fired based on Tampa Bay’s rough 0-3 start. They have been a messy team offensively and defensively. It finally may be time for a transition as they’re headed to miss the playoffs in consecutive seasons.

The Bucs did give Bowles a three-year extension in early 2025, which has him under contract through 2028. There also might be a pass for a second year, depending on how much time Baker Mayfield misses with his thumb injury. Bowles has done well in taking over from Super Bowl 55 winner Bruce Arians, but the environment needs a change.

2. Dan Quinn, Commanders

Quinn had an initial 12-5 splash with a veteran-laden team in 2024. Following that up with 5-12 last season, with Jayden Daniels missing most of it and his defense struggling, was rough. Now Washington is 1-2, with only a slight reprieve after beating reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle at home in Week 3.

Backup QB Marcus Mariota sparked that win, and there’s hope Daniels can return in Week 5. In Week 4, the Commanders can get to .500 with a win over the 1-2 Colts in London. Although the schedule gets tougher soon, they also play the weakened Giants in two of the next six games.

Quinn can stick for a fourth season should Washington get back into the NFC wild-card race for a while. Jumping back to eight or nine wins would be a big help.

3. Shane Steichen, Colts

Steichen needed that home win over the AFC South rival Texans. After the Colts started the 2025 season 8-2, they had lost nine consecutive games. Before the Week 3 victory, their last win came against the Falcons in Berlin. He also will try to pull his team back to .500 in London while coaching against Quinn.

There’s little margin for error for Steichen as CEO Carlie Irsay-Gordon is literally watching closely on the sidelines. Should the team struggle to win with its current talent, there’s a good chance there will be a wholesale change, with long-time GM Chris Ballard being replaced, too. The goal for the Colts will be competing for a wild card behind the Jaguars, the class of the division. If they cannot finish above .500, it would likely prompt those changes.

MORE: NFL Power rankings for Week 4

Getting hot in a hurry

4. DeMeco Ryans, Texans

Ryans has built one of the NFL’s premier defenses and has led the Texans to the playoffs for three consecutive seasons with a combined previous record of 32-19. Houston also was able to recover from 0-2 and finish as a 12-5 strong wild card behind Jacksonville in 2025.

Falling to 0-3 is a different story, especially with quarterback C.J. Stroud and the offense having issues with wide receiver injuries and a limited running game. That’s put a lot of early on the defense, which is getting back on track after a bad Week 1 vs. Josh Allen’s Bills.

There’s still time to rebound and compete for a wild card. Should the Texans miss the playoffs, Ryans should be safe. But if they remain one of the league’s worst overall teams and plummet to well below .500, there will be some concern. Houston should end up sticking with Ryans, signed through 2028.

MORE: Revisiting DeMeco Ryans’ playing career

Not so hot for now

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5. Matt LaFleur, Packers

LaFleur shouldn’t be fired despite the 1-2 start because of his regular-season track record. The Falcons game in Week 3 was an embarrassing home loss after the great escape at the Jets in Week 2. The Packers also had a disastrous fourth quarter in losing at the Vikings in Week 1.

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LaFleur still has a superb record of 77-42-1 in 120 games. The Packers have made the playoffs in six of previous seven seasons under him. The biggest factor in ensuring LaFleur’s job security is the lucrative contract extension he signed in 2026.

6. Jim Harbaugh, Chargers

Harbaugh has technically never been fired from a college or NFL head coaching job in his time with the University of San Diego, Stanford, the 49ers and Michigan. He did have a nasty «mutual» breakup with San Francisco, however, in December 2014, less than two years after leading that team to Super Bowl 47.

Los Angeles’ ownership will be reluctant to let Harbaugh go after giving him a massive five-year, $80 million contract that expires only after the 2028 season. He’s already led a big turnaround, leading the Chargers to back-to-back AFC wild-card berths at 11-6 before this year’s ugly 0-3 start.

Harbaugh is 62 and trying to win big again in the NFL. He might need to sacrifice yet another offensive coordinator with Mike McDaniel not working well to replace Greg Roman. So far, the defensive prowess hasn’t been there either, with Chris O’Leary replacing Jesse Minter. Harbaugh won’t be leaving the Chargers until he wants to leave them.

MORE: How J.J. McCarthy trade to Giants is latest example of Harbaugh brothers’ overlap

7. Aaron Glenn, Jets

Glenn’s team is much more competitive this season with Geno Smith leading a much more competent offense under new coordinator Frank Reich. They also have become more feisty defensively under Glenn and new coordinator Brian Duker. The Jets are 1-2 but have promise to be see a big record spike from Glenn’s initial 3-14 season. He’s headed to getting a third year should the good vibes continue well in the second half of 2026.

They’re totally cool

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8. Mike Vrabel, Patriots

The Patriots were bound to struggle a bit early with a tougher schedule, and the 1-2 start is an indication the Super Bowl 60-losing hangover is real. The offseason controversy might get some blame, but the real culprit has been more of a dysfunctional offense.

Vrabel is still coming off a stellar 14-3 AFC championship season. They are reportedly paying him up to $17 million a season, indicating the team is very confident he’s the long-term successor to Bill Belichick. Robert Kraft can’t go away from his guy, even if the Patriots regress to a losing season out of the playoffs.

9. Nick Sirianni, Eagles

Sirianni can frustrate Philadelphia’s fan base and the bad Week 3 road loss to the Bears is bringing his coaching style into question again. In reality the Eagles are a strong 2-1 and still have a historic .693 regular-season winning percentage (61-27) in five-plus years. He also led the team to victory in Super Bowl 59.

Given how quickly things turned for Doug Pederson, who lasted only three additional seasons after winning Super Bowl 52, there’s a lot of pressure on Sirianni to keep delivering in the right way. Philadelphia would be ridiculous to even consider a change, even if the team can’t go deep into the playoffs.

10. Dan Campbell, Lions

Campbell has seen his team start 2-1. His offense seems to be getting on track after rebounding from the departure of Ben Johnson before last season, with Drew Petzing being a better coordinator fit than John Morton. The Lions’ two wins, however, were the closest of calls at home with the Saints and Jets. They also couldn’t stop the Bills at all in Week 2.

The problem is defense, where the Lions are No. 31 in giving up an average of 416.7 yards per game and dead last in allowing a league-high 31.7 points per game. Aidan Hutchinson is left on an island trying to lift that group. Campbell might need to make a coordinator change from Kelvin Sheppard there (former Lions coach Jim Schwartz?) soon to seek out better results.

Detroit can still win plenty for Campbell with a favorable schedule. It has a good chance to return to the playoffs, which would further stamp his stay-put status.

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