Brazil’s Illegal Betting Market Could Generate Up to R$43.3 Billion Annually, Study Estimates

The second part of Off the Radar 2.0, Measuring and Combating the Illegal Betting Market, estimates annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) for Brazil’s illegal betting market to be between R$32.9 billion and R$43.3 billion. The report was developed by economic consultant LCA, who requested it from the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR).

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The report also estimates that between R$9.1 billion and R$12 billion of tax revenue is not collected annually by the government due to unauthorized operators. The results are based on a study published in August, which estimated that between 38% and 44% of Brazil’s fixed odds betting market was operated by illegal operators, which fell from between 41% and 51% in 2025.

Regulated Betting Market Could Reach R$54.3 Billion in 2026

The financial scale of the illegal market was estimated by LCA using the range of market shares derived in the earlier research as well as data from the Federal Revenue Service. From January to July 2026, the government received R$8.7 billion in taxes related to bets. With an estimated effective tax burden of 27.6%, the consultancy estimated the revenue generated by the regulated market at R$31.6 billion in that time.

If the same rate of growth per year is maintained until the end of the year, LCA estimates that this regulated market could generate R$54.3 billion in annual revenue, which is 46.8% higher than the previous year. Together, the legal and illegal parts of the betting market could contribute up to R$87 billion to R$98 billion in GGR in 2026 in Brazil.

Illegal Betting Could Cost Public Finances Up to R$12 Billion

LCA estimates that the tax revenue that could be lost to the market from taxes on the potential game volume of these illegal betting sites could range from R$9.1 billion to R$12 billion per year. This calculation does not account for any income tax on bettors’ winnings and any operator inspection fees.

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The study also looked at a situation where 5 percentage points of the market were shifted from unlicensed operators to licensed operators. The consultancy estimates that this shift will lead to an extra R$1.2 billion to R$1.3 billion in annual tax revenue. Raising the tax levied on legal operators may further increase the competitive disadvantage vis-à-vis illegal operators and thus may decrease the portion of betting activity on legal platforms.

World Cup Could Increase Betting Activity

The second part of Off the Radar 2.0 also explores World Cup 2026 betting plans. The report quotes an Instituto Locomotiva survey which found that 61% of those placing wagers would be betting more money in the tournament than at any other point in the last year. 61% of the respondents said they’d bet “a little more” and 26% said “much more” than they would have before.

LCA also believes that the proportion of people betting on sport can spike during major games, which can also lead to more competition between legal and illegal providers. It emphasises the need to pay attention to advertising, the ways of payment, and the availability of illegal platforms in major sporting events both in the event and after it.

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Source: SBC Noticias