NBA

Predicting NBA records is always tough. This year will be even tougher, due to the change in the lottery rules which should completely remove all tanking from the league. That is going to substantially change what the standings look like.

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The anti-tanking rules make last year’s standings a not-so-great barometer for how many wins teams will get this year. Everyone is going to be compressed way more towards the middle given that a third of the league was actively trying to lose as many games as possible during the final few months of last season. 

I’m doing my best to gauge the wins anyway, combining my DARKO-based win projection model with my own subjective analysis on how chemistry and new additions will affect teams. In Part 1, I’ll cover every team in the West. I’ll hit the East in Part 2 next week. 

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Win predictions for every team in the West

Top seed contenders

1. Thunder: 64-12

The Thunder are returning eight of their top 11 in minutes from last year’s 64-win team. Those three departures shouldn’t hurt them much. While Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins played important roles, Oklahoma City’s ridiculous depth should help fill those gaps.

Cason Wallace doesn’t have the experience, but he should be even better as a starter than Dort. He was significantly more impactful via DARKO and unadjusted on-off numbers. And Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain are more than capable of filling those bench minutes from Joe and Wiggins. 

This Thunder team should be better than last year’s, which leads to the same amount of wins in a more competitive league environment. 

2. Spurs: 61-21

If Victor Wembanyama plays more than 65 games, then the Spurs are beating this projection. He’s averaged only 60.3 games though over his first three years, including 64 last season. The Spurs were 50-14 in those games and 12-6 in the ones he sat.

San Antonio has also been reticent to push Wemby during the regular season, keeping his minutes low and preferring to prioritize his health for the playoffs. 

Like the Thunder, this Spurs team should be even more talented than last year’s even without huge minutes from Wemby. Tobias Harris is a significant veteran addition who can soak up a lot of minutes. Wembanyama, Dylan Harper, and Stephon Castle are only getting better with age. It’s a two-team race at the top of the West. 

A clear No. 3

3. Rockets: 54-28

The Rockets aren’t getting nearly the preseason respect that they deserve. They won 54 games last season, and they should be as good or better this season.

They did get good injury luck last year, squeezing out 78 games from a 37-year-old Kevin Durant. That should regress, but getting Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams back from injuries addresses two of the major weak points that the team had. Marcus Smart also constitutes a major addition with his defensive toughness.

Houston plays an unusual style where they mash teams on the offensive glass and play a physical brand of defense. Opponents haven’t been able to solve that over the past two regular seasons. They won’t find an answer during this one either. 

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Three teams vying for the No. 4 spot

T-4. Wolves: 49-33

Rudy Gobert will have his work cut out for him. He’s anchored top-10 defenses throughout his tenure in Minnesota. It will be more challenging with LaMelo Ball guarding out on the perimeter. 

That tradeoff should be worth it for the Wolves. They’re built to be much faster, with Jonathan Kuminga and Ayo Dosunmu getting out in transition. Anthony Edwards and Ball should lead a top-10 offense.

The depth at power forward still isn’t particularly strong though. Kuminga is a weaker-than-average starter who can certainly score but isn’t favored by impact metrics due to leaking value in rebounding, off-ball defense, and shooting. 

Minnesota has increased its top-end talent with Anthony Edwards, Gobert, Ball, and Jaden McDaniels as good as any other foursome in the league. The talent starts to fall off from there, preventing them from being in contention for the very top of the West. Dosunmu might actually make their best five to close games over Kuminga. 

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T-4. Nuggets: 49-33

The Nuggets should fall from their 54 wins of a year ago. Peyton Watson’s loss will sting, Marvin Bagley is a below-average backup for Nikola Jokic, and, most importantly, Aaron Gordon’s health remains an issue. They still lack athleticism and ballhandling, which were weaknesses last year. 

Denver does have some positives going its way. Cameron Johnson started figuring out his role much better towards the end of the season. DeMar DeRozan should help boost up bench units and will help drive winning despite an odd fit and his lack of 3-point shooting. And Nikola Jokic is still a top-three player in the league that won’t let the Nuggets fall too much. 

The depth isn’t quite there, though, and Jokic can only do so much. Denver does have a juicy first round pick to trade and add more talent. They need at least one more guy, because this bottom-five bench will drag them down during the regular season. 

6. Lakers: 48-34

Luka Doncic is a top-five player in the league and should be even better this season given that he has better-fitting personnel to work with. Austin Reaves should also improve. His underlying numbers were excellent in the minutes when LeBron James was off the floor last year. 

Despite growth from those two stars and some better shooting, there are some key reasons why the Lakers are expected to drop from their 53 wins last year. Any team with Doncic is going to be top 10 offensively. Defense, particularly at the point of attack, is where Los Angeles has struggled in the post-Anthony Davis era.

Marcus Smart played a crucial role last year as the team’s best perimeter defender. Quentin Grimes takes over that perimeter stopper assignment with less tenacity. Walker Kessler should be a massive improvement over Deandre Ayton, but Kessler hasn’t been able to stay healthy or average big minutes at any point in his career. 

If Kessler does buck that trend, then the Lakers could be in the mix for the No. 3 seed. A more conservative estimate has them fighting a neck-and-neck battle for seeds 4 through 6. 

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The Play-In group

7. Warriors: 42-40

Stephen Curry can’t be expected to play big minutes any more, and Jimmy Butler will likely miss at least half of the season as he recovers from his torn ACL. Draymond Green remains an elite defender, but his offense has fallen off a cliff in recent years. 

The stars aren’t going to carry the Warriors like in their dynasty days, but it’s not all bad. They have quietly built up a good stable of role players that can keep the team respectable as their aging big trio misses games.

Yaxel Lendeborg looks like the most NBA-ready rookie in his class. Gui Santos thrived as a starter last season. Kristaps Porzingis’ health can’t be counted on either, but he has been terrific when he has been available. And Brandin Podziemski keeps on earning Steve Kerr’s trust for a reason. He contributes in enough areas to have a positive impact by the advanced metrics.

De’Anthony Melton, Will Richard, Moses Moody (who will also miss significant time due to injury rehab), Brandon Williams, and Gary Payton II are all similarly positive impact players who are probably underrated by the general public. 

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The absence of any truly bad players may not sound important, but most teams have one or two in their rotation that significantly drag down their regular season wins. That classic strength in numbers approach should help them stay competitive this year. 

8. Trail Blazers: 40-42

The Blazers are getting an influx in talent from last year’s 42-win team, adding Damian Lillard and Ja Morant. Both players are not nearly what they were in their prime though. Lillard still should be able to shoot it, but he grades out as an average player at the age of 36 and coming off an Achilles tear. Morant is a quality starter but far from the top 15 player he was in his prime. 

Both players are also very defensively challenged, which is why the Blazers should see a small drop off from last year’s squad that won by applying a lot of ball pressure up the floor.

Portland also has a major roster imbalance, with way too many guards and poor wing depth off the bench. That leads to a group that has some decent players but will probably underperform based off that strange fit. 

9. Suns: 38-44

The Suns were a nice story last season, winning a surprising 45 games behind a great defense devised by rookie head coach Jordan Ott. It will be interesting to see if Ott can maintain that defense with more minutes expected for two weak defenders in Jalen Green and Miles Bridges.

Phoenix will also be changing its defensive anchor, as Mark Williams will miss a huge chunk of the season due to his labrum tear. Oso Ighodaro is a steady replacement but more suited to a backup role. Khaman Maluach has better defensive tools but is coming off an up-and-down rookie season. Duop Reath is also in the mix. 

Bridges and Green should in theory boost the offense, along with incoming sharpshooter Luke Kennard. Green has never been that efficient of a scorer though due to poor shot selection. Neither Green nor Bridges have shot the 3 particularly well, and both aren’t the greatest decision-makers. 

That changing rotation could mess with an excellent chemistry that was the primary driver to the Suns overachieving last year. Ott has proved himself as an excellent coach though in just one year. He could very conceivably have his team surprising folks again. 

10. Grizzlies: 35-47

This projection is one of the higher ones that you’ll see for the Grizzlies. They may not have a top-20 player on the roster quite yet, but they do have a ton of depth. That is generally how teams overperform in the regular season.

Memphis also has several slumbering giants that could have big years. Ty Jerome was outstanding in the limited sample he played last year. Zach Edey looked like a solid starting center. Cameron Boozer is the most polished of the top four picks in this class.

Memphis’ depth, analytics darlings, and strong coaching make them the easiest pick to overperform in the West.  

11. Clippers: 33-49

Brandon Ingram and Darius Garland are good floor raisers. There are some other solid vets that the Clippers can rely on, including Rui Hachimura, Max Strus, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., and Brook Lopez. They will keep the Clippers more competitive than most people expect. But Los Angeles should probably try to trade most of those guys around February in order to replenish the draft picks that they lost due to the Kawhi Leonard salary cap circumvention saga. 

The Clippers should probably hand the keys over to Keaton Wagler sooner rather than later. He looks like he will need some time before becoming a positive impact player, based on the struggles he had in creating separation both in college and summer league. That push-and-pull between leaning on veterans versus letting Wagler play through his mistakes should lead to a middling year and low 30’s in wins.

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The bottom of the West

12. Jazz: 31-51

The Jazz are a trendy pick to take a big leap this season. They had to pull out all of the stops to tank their way into 22 wins, and a full season of Jaren Jackson Jr. should improve the league’s 29th-ranked defense. Darryn Peterson also joins as a highly-touted rookie. 

Utah will undoubtedly improve, but not by the margin that is widely expected. Their center depth is still very poor after losing Walker Kessler in free agency. Peterson should be a great scorer and disruptive defender, but not good enough quite yet to lift this team into contention. While Keyonte George had a breakout offensively last year, his defense remains well below-average and an impediment towards a serious playoff run. 

13. Pelicans: 30-52

Zion Williamson is still the Pelicans’ best player by impact metrics, producing at a quality starter level and maintaining good (for him) health last season. He may be gone soon, as Derik Queen doesn’t fit well alongside him and New Orleans invested resources to grab Queen in the draft. 

Trey Murphy III should also be a contributor at a fringe All-Star level. Herb Jones still provides excellent defense, but his shaky shooting has dropped his offensive impact towards a negative value. Dejounte Murray looked promising in his return from Achilles surgery last season. 

Bennedict Mathurin will provide some scoring punch off the bench, but he has yet to impact winning at a high level due to his feel issues. Jordan Poole had similar problems last season and should be outside of the rotation. 

The Pelicans probably won’t sniff the playoffs due to a very weak center rotation. Yves Missi is a good energy big but undersized and limited with the ball. He’s more of a backup. Karlo Matkovic is another good backup who nobody outside of New Orleans has heard of. There’s not much else there. 

14. Mavericks: 29-53

The Mavericks are another team that is expected to take a leap up from the 26 wins that they posted last season. Cooper Flagg is a year better, Kyrie Irving’s return shores up their biggest weakness with his playmaking from the guard position, and they’re subbing out a below-average coach in Jason Kidd for an unknown but wildly successful college coach in Dusty May. 

I’m not quite as high on Dallas as consensus. Irving may get moved at the deadline while he still has good value left on his deal. Behind him, the Mavericks once again are very short on playmaking and guards. Flagg lived up to the hype and will be an All-NBA player one day. But he’s still being shoehorned into a role where he has to create for himself and others too much.

This roster still has similar scoring issues from last season, and they lost one of their best shooters in Klay Thompson. The focus should be on developing younger talents like Flagg, Morez Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher, and Sergio de Larrea. 

15. Kings: 19-63

The Kings have some nice things going for them. Darius Acuff could one day be a franchise point guard. Maxime Raynaud looks like the best big man from his class. Dylan Cardwell is full of energy and already a great defender. 

Those guys should all be good down the road, but they’re all negative-impact players today by DARKO. In fact, the Kings don’t have a single positive-impact player on their roster. Keegan Murray, who had a down year, is the closest at a -0.1 DARKO. 

Sacramento may also lose another one of its better players in Domantas Sabonis mid-season, further dropping down their projection. A surprising Ben Simmons comeback campaign or a faster-than-expected start from Acuff could boost them above this number. 

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