Oklahoma City Thunder

A bright future is ahead for the Oklahoma City Thunder, but fans don’t know how bright it will be. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be a perennial candidate for the Michael Jordan Trophy. This also means that the whole organization is going to be in for deep postseason runs in the coming years. While all the focus may be on the superstar, another key piece may determine whether they stay title contenders for a long time: Chet Holmgren. In fact, he is set for an NBA Defensive Player of the Year trajectory for the 2026-27 NBA season.

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Let’s break down the projections for the Thunder’s DPOY finalist in the upcoming 2026-27 NBA season.

Breaking Down Chet Holmgren’s 2026-27 Stat Projections With The Thunder

Everyone who vicariously watches the NBA knows that Victor Wembanyama is going to win the NBA MVP and DPOY for a long time. However, the San Antonio Spurs star might need to be more vigilant and careful with his defensive chops so he doesn’t hit a plateau. Why is that the case? Well, it’s primarily because Chet Holmgren isn’t using the brakes, and his pedal is on the metal when it comes to his defensive development. His Basketball-Reference 2026-27 NBA statistical projections even say so:

This obviously is not the most clean and accurate projection yet. So, let’s convert the Per 36 Minutes data into Per Game data. After that, NBA fans can visualize just how much Holmgren has grown in the Thunder system both as an NBA DPOY candidate and a big help to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

 (Notes: the solid dotted line is the average for every center in the 2025-26 NBA season, the gray dotted line is the player’s career average, and the red dotted line is the projection for the 2026-27 NBA season)

If the 28.9 minutes given to Holmgren by Coach Mark Daigneault were to be a constant for Chet Holmgren, the Thunder are going to see upticks in major statistical categories. For starters, the projections suggest he will be much more of a help on the perimeter. If these projections hold, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will have a teammate with a 37.3% three-point percentage. This opens the Thunder offense to a lot of possibilities. Holmgren becomes increasingly lethal as a trailer in Spain Pick-and-Roll actions, a great screener in Pick-and-Pop scenarios, and even just someone who could stay on the perimeter to stretch out their schemes. Yes, a lot of centers can knock down shots from outside already, but the Thunder have someone who does it at such an elite level that he sits above most bigs in three-point efficiency.

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Offensively, Coach Daigneault will see Holmgren become a better facilitator, or at least develop the game sense to pass more. His assist numbers are predicted to rise from a below-average 1.7 to a fairly decent 1.9. If the Thunder get him back to his career-high 2.4 assists, they would reap a lot of benefits. Losing key facilitators in Isaiah Joe and Lu Dort means every assist would count, even if it’s just a marginal increase from the current roster.

Thunder set to see another Chet Holmgren NBA DPOY run

Defense has increasingly become more important for the Thunder. They no longer have a pesky point-of-attack defender like Lu Dort to use whenever a lethal guard comes their way. This is why Chet Holmgren’s defensive improvements are crucial. He will see massive upticks in major defensive metrics that can make Victor Wembanyama have a run for his money.

Holmgren is projected to have a backslide in his rebounding numbers. From 8.9 TRB, he will go back down to 8.6 TRB. This means that Isaiah Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams, and Jalen Williams will have to clean the glass with a little bit more hustle. If this drop in rebounding numbers affects the Thunder too much, they could see a massive down year in their ability to grab misses. They already struggled on the glass, averaging only 44.1 rebounds per game, which ranked 12th in the NBA during the 2025-26 season.

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On the brighter side, Holmgren is predicted to retain his average of 0.6 steals. The Thunder will need more possessions to win games in the upcoming season. It would be ideal if he creates some separation between himself and the rest of the centers in the league so Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has more chances on offense, but this will be enough to keep them in title contention.

The main statistical category Thunder fans are likely waiting for is Holmgren’s block averages. For the 2026-27 NBA season, the NBA DPOY finalist will have his numbers climb back up to 2.0 blocks per game. This puts him closer to Wembanyama, second in the NBA in blocks, but there is still a huge gap. See, the Spurs star registered a league-leading 3.1 blocks during his unanimous NBA DPOY run last season. In a vacuum, this uptick back to two blocks will help the Thunder.  However, it might not be enough to prevent a repeat winner for the Hakeem Olajuwon Trophy.

Thunder expected to see Chet Holmgren offensive pitfalls

‘Serviceable’ has to be the best word that describes Chet Holmgren on the offensive side of the ball. Yes, he can shoot from all levels of scoring, but that doesn’t guarantee big numbers in his averages. The same is expected for his 2026-27 NBA regular season run with the Thunder.

After the Thunder saw Holmgren average a career-high 17.1 points, they will see his scoring dip all the way back 16.9 points per game. This can also be attributed to the fact his field goal attempts are going to back slide from 11.3 to 11.2 on average. Why is this particularly concerning for the Thunder? Well, it’s because they lost about nine points due to the departures of Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe. They did get Aday Mara, Bennett Stirtz, and Otega Oweh to fill that offensive voids but these are fairly young players that may take some time to adjust.

Another woe that may haunt the Thunder comes in the form of Holmgren’s scoring efficiency taking a dip.

It seems peculiar that Holmgren will improve his three-point shooting efficiency but take a hit on his overall field goal percentage. This means one big thing: the Thunder are likely to see him struggle from inside the arc. Coach Mark Daigneault will have to view this as a problem, with the paint getting more cluttered, and prepare to deal with Holmgren. Without shooters and creators like Joe and Wiggins, this dip is to be expected.

Schematics will dictate whether the Thunder see Holmgren become an All-NBA Third Team selection or an NBA DPOY finalist once again. Three players may have left the Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but their departures are set to ripple through the rest of the team. For Holmgren, it’s still unclear whether he benefits from these offseason moves. One thing is certain for the big man: he will be the defensive anchor that his team needs to push for a second Larry O’Brien Trophy in a span of three years.

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