Atlanta Hawks

Much like their namesake, the Atlanta Hawks have been breakout risers in the NBA. Despite losing Trae Young, they are set to remain top competitors in the Eastern Conference. Jalen Johnson is a big reason for that trajectory. However, there may be some worries about him entering the 2026-27 season. Will this affect how his squad compares with the rest of the competition?

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More importantly, can Johnson retain his status as an All-NBA selection? Let’s break his numbers down.

Breaking Down Jalen Johnson’s 2026-27 Stat Projections With The Hawks

Being an elite small forward in the NBA typically means being able to serve your team as an all-arounder. Jalen Johnson is starting to show all of these qualities and rise into stardom. His Basketball Reference Per 36 Minutes Projections for the 2026-27 NBA season reflects exactly that.

When crunched and transposed to get the Per Game Projections from the Per 36 data, it’s quite clear that there is not much of a drastic dip or uptick in Johnson’s level of production. This suggests the Hawks star may not be able to unlearn his issues just yet, and there are areas where he may not fully capitalize. Let’s see the full visualization of his statistical projections for the 2026-27 NBA season.

 (Notes: the solid dotted line is the average for every small forward in the 2025-26 NBA season, the gray dotted line is the player’s career average, and the red dotted line is the projection for the 2026-27 NBA season)

Notably, Johnson is projected to take fewer shots than he did in his 2025-26 season run, when he finished as an All-NBA Third Team selection. If his projection of 16.1 field goal attempts per game holds, the Hawks star will see his scoring average go down to 21.3 points per game. The -1.2 drop from his career-high 22.5 points is important for winning games and defining the Hawks’ trajectory toward playoff contention.

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Why is that the case? Well, the Hawks had a 2025-26 offensive rating of 116.1. They ranked 14th in the NBA because of this. Any night Johnson can’t exceed that points threshold could cost them games, eventually snowballing into whether they are seen as a team fit for the postseason. Take note: at least 12 teams in the Eastern Conference have the roster makeup to reach the NBA Playoffs. Any marginal changes from Johnson as their star are very crucial.

The Hawks’ Defensive Menace: Jalen Johnson

Looking further into Jalen Johnson’s projected metrics, it’s becoming increasingly clear that he is set to be a problem as a defender. This will help increase the Hawks’ primary win condition: their defense. Johnson is expected to maintain at least, or even produce bigger numbers than in previous seasons.

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Johnson is projected to achieve his second-highest rebound numbers, 10.1 rebounds per game, for the 2026-27 season. The Hawks expect him to be their leader in this key statistical category once again, with Onyeka Okongwu’s 7.6 rebounds and Dyson Daniels’ 6.8 rebounds coming in as distant second and third. The same expectations can be said when it comes to his ability as a pickpocket on defense. Johnson is slated to average the second-most steals, 1.3 STL, in his career. While he would not lead the Hawks in this category because of Dyson Daniels’ 2.0 steals back in the 2025-26 NBA season, the All-NBA small forward will tie Nickeil Alexander-Walker for second in steals if the projections hold.

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To add to his defensive versatility, Johnson is also slated to average 0.6 blocks per game. This shows he can be a downhill defender, meet someone at the rim when needed, or even grab blocks while rotating from the weak side.

Shooting: The Hawks Star’s Projected Biggest Problem

Being an exceptional All-NBA player typically means exceeding all metric averages for your position. The same cannot be said for Jalen Johnson yet. He has not exceeded most of his competitors in field goal percentage, three-point percentage, or free throw percentage. When you simplify it and look at the bottom line, the Hawks have seen him struggle to shoot efficiently. The same woes are projected to haunt him in the upcoming 2026-27 NBA season.

Johnson’s field goal percentage has jumped quite comfortably above and below the 50% mark for the past four seasons. The same is expected in the upcoming season, as the Hawks star is projected to knock down only 49.7% of his shots from the floor. Yes, he would still be marginally above the 46.7% average for small forwards, but those numbers pale in comparison to the other All-NBA players he is stacked up against. More than that, it will also be the second straight year that he will settle for a field goal percentage less than 50% if the projections turn out true. While only marginally concerning, this has never happened in his career before.

The concern should be shifted to his three-point percentage possibly plateauing at 35.2%. The Hawks attempted the ninth-most three-pointers in the NBA, averaging 39.5 shots from downtown. They also have the fifth-highest three-point percentage as a team at 37.1% in the league. It would unlock a world of schematic and rotational possibilities if Johnson can knock down shots from outside the arc more efficiently. In fact, this could be what separates them from the pretenders on the path to becoming perennial Eastern Conference contenders. This is largely because, when you add it up, the Hawks’ total effective field goal percentage will determine whether their rebuild is successful.

There are some bright spots, like his free-throw percentage going back up to 78.3%, but it is that shot from the field that needs improvement.

The Hawks will only go as far as Johnson takes them as a loud or quiet all-arounder, depending on the night. If he can confidently and efficiently shoot the ball when those 24 seconds are ticking, he could be the next great forward that the league will have the pleasure of marveling at.

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