Brazilian Presidential Candidates Split Over Bets Ban and R$12.2 Billion Fiscal Gap

Four of Brazil’s 2026 presidential candidates back a complete ban on sports betting platforms, but no one has outlined any plans to replace the tax revenue the sector would lose if it’s banned. A survey released by Folha de S. Paulo Reported That Betting regulated by R$12.2 billion generated public revenue in 2025.

Candidates Supporting a Total Ban

Renan Santos (Missão), among other candidates from PSTU, PCB and UP, is in favor of blocking betting sites. Santos‘ campaign has made no mention of what the government would do with the R$12.2 billion it would lose in taxes during the first year of the regulated market.

PSTU and PCB also protect the assets of betting companies from being expropriated; meanwhile, UP portrays the activity as a crime against the popular economy. Instead of a blanket ban, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) suggests tougher rules and the ban of betting advertising on the mass media and social networks, calling the issue of household over-indebtedness a public health problem.

Government Favors Regulation, Despite Lula’s Comments

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (PT) campaign calls for improvement of the existing regulatory regime. It proposes to keep the spending cap in place and to keep an eye on the level of indebtedness of households and on credit regulation to ensure that debt resulting from gambling does not take place. The program also proposes to increase the availability of public mental health services to compulsive gamblers.

But recently Lula has claimed that he personally was in favor of a harder-line strategy. At a meeting with anti-gambling lobbyists in September, he said he would personally end wagering, but that he needed to hear from both sides to make a decision.

Past Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), who supported the bill for the regulation of betting, also engages in gambling-related debt. His platform calls for banning the use of funds from social programs for betting, in addition to financial education and credit from Caixa Econômica Federal. The primary points outlined in the proposal by the campaign are to focus on what causes families to fall into debt, alert to the fact that online betting takes money from people’s pockets before they even reach home each month, and how it affects the most vulnerable members of a family.

Taxation and Different Regulatory Approaches

Augusto Cury (Avante) suggests raising the betting tax to over 50%. He said in a TV debate that the rate on operators of 13% is less than the tax rate on food. These other taxes paid by operators, however, are not included in the comparison, such as IRPJ, CSLL, PIS, Cofins and ISS. But the consultancy LCA estimates the total tax burden on the sector to be about 33% of revenue in 2026.

Wilson Grassi (Partido Democrata) suggests that the betting firms be investigated, in order to uncover possible money laundering, and the revenues be channeled to public security. The current law provides that 13.6% of the social contribution that is created by betting goes to public security.

However, there is no specific proposal on the table for the banning of betting in government policy proposals by Romeo Zema (Novo), Renan Santos (Missão) and Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO).

Fiscal Impact Remains Unresolved

The posts show a big gap in opinion regarding the future of betting in Brazil, with some going so far as to say it ought to be banned, while others advocate more robust regulation and taxation. There is frequent reference to consumer protection throughout the proposals, as well as to indebtedness and illegal activity.

But the financial impact of such a restriction has not been extensively discussed. The 2025 tax revenue generated from betting is estimated at R$12.2 billion. If the regulated market is abolished, any plan to replace the tax revenue will also have to take into account how the income generated by the regulated market will be matched in the new system.

Source: BNL Data