NFL

If recent history is any indication, it’s likely that at least one NFL team that finished last in its division in 2025 will win its division in 2026.

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The phenomenon, if you can call it that, has happened 12 times in the last 11 seasons and six times in the last six seasons. That doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to happen. No team went worst-to-first in 2019 or 2024. But the odds are certainly in favor of at least one team achieving the feat.

After the Patriots and Bears did it in 2025, eight teams will try their hand in 2026.

Here’s a look at each last-place team’s case for and against going from worst to first.

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New York Jets

Why they can go worst-to-first 

Don’t laugh.

No, a first-place finish isn’t even remotely likely for the Jets in the AFC East, even under a best-case scenario. The Bills and Patriots are both entering the season with their sights firmly set on winning the conference, not just the division, while the Jets are coming off a three-win season.

There is a scenario where it comes together for the Jets this season. Geno Smith has proven he can be a solid starter when he reins in the turnovers, and the offensive core surrounding him is solid, from two impressive young tackles to Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. New York’s defense looked checked out by the end of 2025, but Aaron Glenn has a bevy of new starters, including veteran Demario Davis, who can set the tone and erase that complacency.

Even that scenario won’t result in an AFC East title, but it’s one that can allow the Jets to pick up a few wins where some might not expect.

Why they can’t go worst-to-first 

The Jets have surprised with low expectations and veteran quarterbacks before, whether it was going 10-6 with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center or starting 5-6 in a Josh McCown-led season that began with 0-16 buzz. Standing in their way this time is a loaded top of the AFC East.

The Bills could disappoint. The Patriots could disappoint. The odds of both disappointing enough to open the door for the Jets (or Dolphins, for that matter) to compete for the division title are extraordinarily unlikely.

Quarterbacks aren’t everything in the NFL, but a team that has Josh Allen under center simply won’t allow that to happen, considering how far the Jets will have to go just to climb from three wins in 2025 to something more respectable in 2026.

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Cleveland Browns

Why they can go worst-to-first 

Removing quarterbacks from the equation, the Browns have built a solid foundation. Cleveland completely rebuilt its offensive line this offseason, which should benefit Quinshon Judkins as he aims for a breakthrough season, and KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston provide an offense that already has Jerry Jeudy and Harold Fannin Jr. with some additional firepower.

The defense wasn’t the problem last season. Yes, Myles Garrett and DC Jim Schwartz are gone, but there aren’t many glaring weaknesses the unit has to deal with. If Deshaun Watson proves to be motivated and the Browns get more stable quarterback play than they did last season, the games they nearly won in 2025 can be games they win in 2026.

Why they can’t go worst-to-first 

The foundation is solid in Cleveland, but star power is lacking, even if Watson turns in a season that somewhat resembles his days in Houston. Not only do the Browns not have a true No. 1 receiver, but that revamped offensive line is going to need time to gel in front of a quarterback who tore and then re-tore his Achilles.

Losing Schwartz as the leader of the defense isn’t going to get as much attention as losing Garrett, but it’s significant. The Browns’ defense had some tremendous momentum late last season. Whether the unit can regain that with a first-year defensive coordinator and without its best player is a mystery, and the Browns simply don’t have the offense to win consistently if the defense isn’t constantly playing at a high level.

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Tennessee Titans

Why they can go worst-to-first 

There are a lot of reasons to be excited about better days ahead for the Titans. Cam Ward showed serious growth as a rookie, tossing more touchdown passes over his last four full games than he did over his first 12, even in a broken offense. With an experienced play-caller in Brian Daboll and new weapons in Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson, a second-year leap for Ward should be expected.

Defense was rarely the issue in New York for Robert Saleh, and Saleh totally revamped the unit by bringing in players who fit his scheme and mentality. The Titans could have 5-6 new defensive starters, including former Jets Jermaine Johnson II and John Franklin-Myers.

The AFC South could be wide-open. The Jaguars might have a tough time repeating a dream 13-win season with a quarterback who has never put together back-to-back strong seasons, while the Texans have offensive questions despite boasting what might be the NFL’s best defense. If Jacksonville could make a leap and beat out Houston last season, Tennessee at least has a chance to do the same.

Why they can’t go worst-to-first 

The AFC South has had plenty of bad years. This doesn’t look like one of those years. The Texans received an offensive blow when they learned of Jayden Higgins’ ACL tear, but the offense won’t be asked to do too much with an elite defense waiting to take the field. The Jaguars and Colts, while flawed, are both going into the season expecting to reach the playoffs, even if it’s unlikely both reach.

The Titans won’t have any divisional games that they can confidently say they should win, and that’s a problem for a team with an unproven quarterback that will have to incorporate numerous new pieces on the defensive side of the ball. This season will be all about progress for Tennessee under Saleh, with a goal of contending by 2027 when the new stadium opens.

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Las Vegas Raiders

Why they can go worst-to-first 

The Raiders are taking steps to prove they are ready to be a serious organization once again. Klint Kubiak has worked under three Super Bowl-winning head coaches, including growing up under one, and both Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza are respected leaders of men.

The offense could be much improved. Brock Bowers missed a large portion of 2025, as did LT Kolton Miller. Both are healthy, and the offensive line also added a Pro Bowl center in Tyler Linderbaum. That should help unlock Ashton Jeanty, and it’s worth keeping in mind Cousins finished last season with four consecutive wins in Atlanta.

There is work to be done defensively, but a brand-new linebacker room and the return of a seemingly content Maxx Crosby should give the Raiders a fighting chance on that side of the ball under first-year DC Rob Leonard.

Why they can’t go worst-to-first 

The AFC West is simply not going to allow that to happen. The Broncos, Chiefs and Chargers all expect to be playoff teams, and the odds are at least two of them will be.

The defenses of Denver, Kansas City and L.A. will overpower a Raiders offense that has arguably the NFL’s worst wide receiver room, led by Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor and Jack Bech. Cousins and Mendoza are both competent in their own ways, but the situation in Las Vegas isn’t good enough for either to win big in 2026.

In a division like the NFC South, there would be a path for a revamped, run-based Raiders offense to do some damage even with the defensive concerns, but that path isn’t there in the AFC West.

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New York Giants

Why they can go worst-to-first 

The Eagles finally broke the NFC East’s streak of consecutive years with a different champion, but this is still a division where weird things can happen.

After the Commanders made a leap two years ago (albeit failing to win the division), the Giants might be well positioned to make that same jump in 2026. New York has a rejuvenated Super Bowl-winning coach in John Harbaugh, a seemingly healthy Malik Nabers coming back and a quarterback who surpassed expectations in a downright terrible offensive situation last year.

The potential for a second-year breakout for Abdul Carter should give the Giants one of the NFC’s most lethal pass-rush duos, and Arvell Reese is another playmaker added to a unit that wasn’t necessarily the problem before Harbaugh arrived. After Drake Maye and Caleb Williams went from worst-to-first in part because of their cheap rookie salaries, the Giants have assembled a team around Dart that looks like it can hang with their NFC East rivals.

Why they can’t go worst-to-first 

As much parity as there has been in the NFC East, the Eagles and Cowboys have largely run the show in recent years. That’s not a mistake. Philadelphia still has a boatload of defensive talent and enough of an offense to win 11-12 games, while the Cowboys, already with an impressive offense, have every reason to believe they will be better after working to shore up some defensive holes.

Short of a massive year from Jaxson Dart, it’s tough to put that kind of faith in a Giants offense led by Matt Nagy as the play-caller and without many pass-catching options behind Nabers, whose own status as an elite receiver is in question after a severe knee injury.

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Detroit Lions

Why they can go worst-to-first 

It may be hard to believe the Lions finished last in the NFC North at 9-8, but a late loss to the Vikings sealed their tiebreaker disadvantage and their fate. Detroit, of course, isn’t a typical last-place team. Just two years removed from winning 15 games, the Lions have a high-level quarterback, elite weapons in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs, and one of the game’s best pass-rushers in Aidan Hutchinson.

The stars are enough to make NFC North contention realistic, even with the division so competitive at the moment. How the rest of the pieces fall into place will determine whether the Lions are closer to a 9-8 team or a 12-5 team. With Sam LaPorta healthy, all the offense needs is some more stability on the offensive line. The defense, meanwhile, will get Brian Branch back soon, Kerby Joseph back at some point, and should see a better year from Alim McNeill.

The NFC North is ultra-competitive, but there isn’t necessarily a dominant team the Lions need to knock off. The Packers only won nine games last season, while the Bears pulled numerous rabbits out of hats to take the division. Are the Lions as good as they were in 2024? No. Are they good enough to win 11-12 games? There’s a strong case to be made that they are, and that might be enough to win the NFC North.

Why they can’t go worst-to-first 

The Lions weren’t a bad team by any means in 2025, but they haven’t done enough to fix their biggest vulnerabilities.

The pass defense is still a glaring concern, with D.J. Reed coming off a disappointing season and both safeties recovering from major injuries. On the offensive line, there are questions all over with the exception of Penei Sewell. Center Cade Mays, signed to solve the Frank Ragnow problem, is set to miss a portion of the season with an injury. The offensive line’s regression took a toll on Gibbs’ efficiency down the stretch last season, and the Lions’ offense was markedly worse when Gibbs wasn’t as effective.

The NFC North won’t allow the Lions to have much of a break this season. There is no dominant team, but a healthier Packers team should be better than it was last season, the Bears are shooting for the moon after a breakthrough year, and the Vikings believe a quarterback upgrade is all they need to get back to the playoffs.

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New Orleans Saints

Why they can go worst-to-first 

The best team in the NFC South last December was the only one that didn’t finish tied for first. The Saints were more competitive late in the year than anyone could have expected, with Tyler Shough playing like a legitimate NFL starter and the team buying into Kellen Moore’s system.

In a weak division, the Saints pretty clearly got better. Jordyn Tyson’s early-season absence is a concern, leaving the receiving corps thin, but Travis Etienne is an upgrade in the backfield, while the offensive line could be one of the NFC’s more stable units with Erik McCoy healthy, Kelvin Banks Jr. poised for a breakout year and David Edwards joining the mix.

The defense lost Demario Davis and Alontae Taylor, but what the Saints don’t have in star power they have in quality talent, from resurgent pass-rusher Chase Young to rising CB Kool-Aid McKinstry.

Star power isn’t necessary in the NFC South. If the Panthers could do it last year, the Saints can do it in 2026, provided Shough’s late-season run was no fluke.

Why they can’t go worst-to-first 

Well, there is the possibility Shough’s run was fluke-ish. What he did with such limited weapons was thoroughly impressive, but crowning him after nine starts might be a stretch.

Beyond Shough, there are real concerns with his cast of weapons now that Tyson is set to miss an extended stretch. Chris Olave is always one hit away from an extended absence with his concussion history, and there is no depth behind him with Tyson out.

The defense has plenty of plucky, unheralded players, but that won’t be enough if the offense takes a step back from where it was in December. The NFC South is nothing to be intimidated by, but there also doesn’t appear to be a Dolphins-type team that can just be walked over.

Arizona Cardinals

Why they can go worst-to-first 

The short answer is that the Cardinals cannot go from worst-to-first. Arizona finished nine games out of third in the NFC West last season, buried by Rams, Seahawks and 49ers teams that once again expect to compete with the very top of the conference. For the Rams in particular, it’s a Super Bowl-or-bust season.

With that being said, there are ways the Cardinals can surprise this year. Jacoby Brissett generally played well as Arizona’s starter last season, albeit with some of that production coming in garbage time. He has real weapons in Trey McBride, Jeremiyah Love, Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr., plus a standout left tackle in Paris Johnson Jr.

A defensive overperformance would put the Cardinals in position to win some games. There probably weren’t enough major changes on that side of the ball to inspire hope of a much better defensive season, but Walter Nolen III and Will Johnson could be in line for breakthrough seasons.

Why they can’t go worst-to-first 

There is no path to beating out the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers in this division. One of those teams could have a totally disappointing season, but it’s virtually impossible for three teams that are so well-coached to simply fall apart.

The Cardinals have some offensive pieces that will make their games more watchable, but they haven’t given any indication that a defensive breakthrough is coming. Arizona doesn’t even have a new defensive coordinator, as Mike LaFleur retained Nick Rallis to lead the unit. Rallis will give the unit a new play-caller, but a defense that needed a facelift didn’t get one.

Much like the Falcons with their weapons, the Cardinals don’t have the quarterback or the defense to take advantage. Playing in arguably the NFL’s toughest division at the moment is the final nail in Arizona’s coffin.

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