NRL

It’s all come down to this Sea Eagles fans. 

With just two rounds remaining in the 2026 NRL season and heading into Friday’s Round 26 clash with St. George Illawarra, Manly’s finals hopes are still alive — albeit hanging by a very thin thread. 

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Sitting 10th on the NRL ladder the Sea Eagles are the last team mathematically capable of still cracking the top eight, but the equation is brutal.

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The good news for Manly 

Kieran Foran’s men have a strong for and against (+66), healthier than all of the three teams above them and within reach — Canterbury, North Queensland and South Sydney — which means points difference is unlikely be the thing that keeps them out of the finals. 

Tom Trbojevic is also back for a season-defining run home and this week’s Round 26 clash with the wooden spoon-bound Dragons side is entirely winnable, potentially by a significant margin.

The bad news for Manly 

Sadly for the Sea Eagles, a wretched run of form through most of July and August means they control nothing of their own destiny beyond winning their last two matches — no guarantee given their final match next weekend is away to the Warriors.

Even a perfect two-from-two finish only draws them level or within two points of the pack above, it doesn’t guarantee they’ll make it.

In other words, they need help.

What has to happen?

First up Manly must beat the Dragons and then the Warriors in Round 27. 

Simultaneously, the Sea Eagles also need at least two of Canterbury, North Queensland and South Sydney to stumble in the final two weekends. 

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The Bulldogs face a tough Penrith side chasing the minor premiership, and then a Broncos side that may be motivated to end a truly disastrous 2026 season on a high.

South Sydney meet an enigmatic Gold Coast team that can beat anyone on their day in a genuine banana skin match-up before ending their home and away commitments against arch rivals the Sydney Roosters.

Buoyed by the return of captain Tom Dearden the 8th-placed Cowboys host the Wests Tigers who just pulled off the upset of the year against the Roosters before ending their season against the Raiders.

For Manly to leapfrog their rivals into the top eight they need the Bulldogs to drop at least one of their remaining two matches (very possible) and at least one of the Rabbitohs and Cowboys to drop both of their remaining two matches (possible, but less likely).

Meanwhile Manly must win both of the final matches, of course.

The Verdict

Yes, it’s mathematically alive, but realistically still a long shot, maybe a 5-10% chance. 

But where there’s life — and Turbo — there’s hope, right?

Manly faces St. George Illawarra on Friday night at 4 Pines Park in Round 26. Kickoff at 6pm.

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