NBA

While NBA player breakouts may seem somewhat unpredictable, there is a general formula that many of those situations follow. Oftentimes, a player will get an increased role, new coaching, a continuation of a hot ending to last season, or all three. 

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Using that criteria, we can have a decent idea of who is set to break out during the 2026-27 season. There were some noteworthy coaching changes and a lot of roster turnover, and several players stand to benefit from that activity. 

Here are the seven players who look most primed for a massive leap this upcoming season.

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NBA breakout candidates for 2026-27

Austin Reaves, Lakers

Reaves is a strong candidate to be a first-time All-Star this season. He will play on a good team in the Lakers that has a lot of national attention, and he should have an even bigger role from last year where he averaged a career-high 23.3 points per game. 

The big reason for that is, of course, the departure of LeBron James. Reaves should absorb many of those ballhandling opportunities alongside Luka Doncic. The Lakers were somewhat surprisingly at their best when those two played without LeBron, sporting an impressive +14.5 net rating in their 468 shared minutes. 

Reaves’ individual production also skyrocketed without LeBron. He increased his scoring, playmaking, and efficiency in those minutes per stats from databallr. The Lakers were also significantly better as a team in those minutes. 

Reaves has improved his scoring and usage through every season of his career. Now entering his age 28 campaign, he should be right in his prime and ready to show off his full skill set. 

Dylan Harper, Spurs

It’s only a matter of time before Harper gets put into the Spurs’ starting lineup. Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox are both great players. Harper, who came off the bench, was the best guard out of the three for several playoff games.

Harper went to another level in the postseason, where he averaged 14.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game. Those numbers rose even higher to 18.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in the Finals. 

Harper is already elite at getting to the rim and finishing with unbelievable touch. He the size, feel, athleticism, and defense to become an All-NBA type of player sooner rather than later. 

Fox is the incumbent starter, and he’s in Year One of a four-year, $222 million extension. That is going to make him difficult to bench. But it’s going to happen at some point.

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Matas Buzelis

Buzelis had a solid sophomore season for a bad Bulls team, averaging 16.3 points per game on decent efficiency. His usage rose by 3.7 percent and his scoring average also ticked up 3.7 points per game after the trade deadline when the Bulls traded away much of their veteran talent. He will take on an even bigger responsibility for a rebuilding Bulls team, and he is ready for it. 

Buzelis was a raw 19-year old when he was taken with the No. 11 pick of the 2024 draft. Billy Donovan took a patient approach to his development, carving out a very simple role for him as a 3-and-D forward. Donovan somewhat infamously called Buzelis out during a group film session for taking a contested pull-up midrange shot, telling him to «take that s— and throw it out in the trash.» 

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Buzelis should have more freedom to cook with the ball under new coach Tiago Splitter, who also eschewed midrange shots in Portland but struck gold by placing Deni Avdija in a point forward role. Buzelis doesn’t have the passing chops of Avdija, but he does have some untapped driving ability and more room for experimentation on a team that projects to be near the bottom of the East. He’s got a shifty handle, and Splitter can teach him how Avdija was able to leverage his physicality on drives to turn into an All-Star. 

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Anthony Black

This is a big year for Black, who will be one of the premier restricted free agents next season. He’s already shown significant improvement through all three of his seasons, averaging 15.0 points per game last year and proving that he is capable of being an elite Sixth Man or potential starter in the league. 

Black has even more upside to tap into. He’s already a disruptive defender, and he looked capable of taking on more scoring during the periods when the Magic dealt with myriad injuries to their stars last season. He’s a great transition player, a good slasher, and a clever cutter that clearly had more confidence and aggression on his drives last season. 

Black could also be the beneficiary of new coaching. The Magic offense was not particularly innovative or good under Jamahl Mosley, who didn’t have a way of getting strange pieces to work together. Sean Sweeney should bring a new system that highlights Black, who looks like a cornerstone of the franchise going forward. 

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Zach Edey

Edey was dominant in the limited minutes that he played last season, shooting 63 percent from the field and averaging 13.6 points and 11.1 rebounds (including an incredible 3.9 offensive rebounds) per game. Per 36 minutes, he’s at 19 points and 16 rebounds per game. He should be the presumptive starter at center for the Grizzlies. 

The question for Edey is availability. He played in 66 games as a rookie and only 11 last season after having ankle surgery. He was extremely durable at Purdue, missing only one game through four years. The hope is that the issues with that left ankle, which started in his first Summer League, are now resolved. 

If Edey can suit up, then he’s going to be one of the most interesting players to watch. His 7-foot-3, 305-pound frame has definitely translated from college. Concerns that he wouldn’t be able to hold up defensively look overblown. He’s been a great rim protector, and he’s come into the league at the right time as teams are prioritizing huge players with skill. He’s even shown a little bit of 3-point touch that he didn’t have at Purdue. 

I have Edey projected as the No. 15 center in the league to start the season. He could realistically rise into the top 10 by March if he stays healthy. 

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Day’Ron Sharpe

Most fans have no idea who Sharpe is. That’s understandable, as the No. 29 pick of the 2021 draft has been a backup on mediocre-to-bad Nets teams throughout his whole career. 

Sharpe should get a starting opportunity this season after Nic Claxton was traded to the Bulls. He’s never going to sniff an All-Star team, but he looks capable of being a solid fill-in for that role. Earning just $10 million for that job, he has a chance to be one of the better value contracts in the league. 

Sharpe is a bit undersized at 6-foot-10, but his energy more than makes up for his lack of height. He’s an incredible rebounder, particularly on the offensive end of the floor. He has shown some intriguing passing skills. He finishes everything at the rim. And he’s a good defender with a knack for getting deflections. 

Those secondary skills have made Sharpe an analytics nerd darling. He positively impacts the game without scoring a ton of points, making him a useful under-the-radar role player. He still probably won’t get a ton of national buzz even if he has a good year. But he’s worth keeping an eye on once he finds himself in a winning environment where his skills will really shine. 

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