CBRE Sees Wynn Al Marjan Island Delivering $355M Annual Cash Flow By 2031

CBRE expects Wynn Resorts to receive about $355 million in annual free cash flow from Wynn Al Marjan Island through management fees and dividends once the UAE property stabilizes in 2031. The estimate covers cash flow expected to reach Wynn rather than the resort’s total cash generation and assumes a fully stabilized year instead of performance immediately after opening.

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Return Outlook And Equity Commitment

The brokerage said the forecast would represent a 22% unlevered annual return on Wynn’s equity investment in the project. Wynn has contributed approximately $1.06 billion in equity to the joint venture so far and has an estimated $525 million to $650 million still to fund, according to CBRE.

That would bring Wynn’s total contribution to between $1.59 billion and $1.71 billion. Following the latest $600 million increase in the project budget, Wynn is responsible for its 40% pro-rata share, equivalent to $240 million.

CBRE attributed about half of the budget increase to disruption caused by the conflict involving Iran and the remainder to typical cost escalation for a development of this size. The brokerage said the September 2027 target opening represented a delay of approximately 6 months.

Even so, CBRE described both the delay and the roughly 11% budget increase as relatively minimal given the disruption in the region. The revised timetable and higher costs have not altered the broker’s long-term view of the project’s potential contribution to Wynn.

Market Strength In Ras Al Khaimah

CBRE pointed to record tourist arrivals in Ras Al Khaimah during the first half of 2026, driven by a 47% year-on-year increase in domestic arrivals. The brokerage said that performance provided evidence of the depth and resilience of the local market despite the geopolitical environment.

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The firm described Wynn Al Marjan Island as the only meaningful integrated resort casino supply within a large and well-populated surrounding market, supporting its bullish long-term assessment. That positioning, CBRE said, underpins the expectation that the property can generate significant cash flow once it reaches a stable operating phase.

The analysis focuses on the cash flow that would flow back to Wynn through its management and equity roles, rather than the resort’s overall revenue or earnings.

Volatility as a Risk Factor

While being optimistic about the future of the project, CBRE stated that the timing of the opening may be altered by the ongoing volatility in the Middle East region. The broker added that it is one of the major variables that can impact the development process and the final date of the opening.

According to the reports, the opening date of the project is set on September 2027, however, the budget readjustment and timing alteration demonstrate the high dependence of the project from external factors. The budget increase of $600 million is an indicator of the costs incurred during the implementation of the large-scale projects in the region.

The international expansion strategy of Wynn includes the project under discussion, since the company owns 40% of equity interest in the joint venture.

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Source: Asia Gaming Brief