NFL

What is a «make-or-break» season? The definition isn’t the same for every NFL player going into the season with real expectations. Some might be trying to live up to massive hype. Others might be just trying to prove they belong as starters in the league.

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The first-round class in the 2024 NFL Draft is a prime example of both types of players, now going into their pivotal Year 3 in 2026. Although the quarterbacks continue to grab the biggest spotlights, wide receivers and edge rushers also are feeling heat. There’s also an offensive lineman being thrust into a pivotal pass protection role.

Training camp is just the build up to a regular season with a wide range of outcomes. Starting right at the top with the Bears’ potential franchise passer, 10 such picks are under the most pressure to break through one way or another.

From Caleb Williams to a Chiefs’ key playmaker, we break down whether expectations will be met or the player is headed to let down:

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Caleb Williams, QB, Bears (No. 1 overall)

Williams is the on the cover of Madden 27 coming off setting Chicago’s single-season passing record in his second year, his first under ace offensive-minded head coach Ben Johnson. Williams established himself as a top passer and most important, led the Bears to an 11-6 record that won the NFC North on the strength of a league-high 6 fourth-quarter comebacks.

So how does Williams go from «breakout» to make or break? The can’t-miss prospect has left hungry Bears thinking Super Bowl while Williams jumps to the ranks of NFL elite QBs and puts up MVP-caliber numbers. Despite Williams’ Year 2 heroics, he will be expected to do everything bigger and better, even there are some outside doubts whether the Bears can even return to the playoffs.

Williams’ improbable improv was great, but it needs to evolve to more prolific, consistent play so he and his team doesn’t need to dig out of holes. Johnson and the Bears have given him a comfortable system and supporting cast, meaning Williams needs to become a more efficient overall passer. So far, so good with his work in camp.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals (No. 4 overall)

Harrison was deemed more «can’t-miss» than Williams with his brilliant play at Ohio State coupled with being the namesake son of the Colts’ Hall of Fame wide receiver. But so far, Harrison has struggled with dropped passes and executing well from his varied outside route-running. 

The Cardinals are working to put less pressure on him in camp by putting Michael Wilson in true go-to No. 1 role as the «Z» receiver with Harrison designated as the «X» No. 2. Between Wilson and tight end Trey McBride, Arizona’s new offensive staff, led by coach Matt LaFleur, is adjusting expectations for Harrison, treating him more of a youngster with a lot to prove vs. a surefire top target. Productivity with returning Qb Jacoby Brissett favors Wilson, too.

Harrison is a getting a reset with his evaluation under LaFleur and needs to take advantage of it in camp by staying healthy and flashing with more extending time in preseason games. If Harrison can’t prove he can be at least a valuable complementary receiver with his red zone work, he would be headed to leaving Arizona for a second last chance soon.

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Falcons (No. 8 overall)

Penix is having a slow recovery from his torn ACL to the point he went from being able to do only 7-on-7 drills in camp to telling reporters he still might need another month to finish his rehab work. He is headed in the wrong direction with the team adding Tua Tagovailoa, the former Dolphin who should be the presumed Week 1 regular-starter with Penix’s latest self-update.

Penix was shaky in his nine starts last season before going down, showing little improvement from starting late as a rookie. The new offense of Kevin Stefanski doesn’t play into his favor, as it is focused more on short-to-intermediate passing vs. Penix being able to let his big left arm fly from the pocket. At this point, Penix needs Tagovailoa to stumble out of the gate and accelerate his own process to have any shot of keeping a key job for Atlanta in 2027.

Rome Odunze, WR, Bears (No. 9 overall)

Odunze has had more early impact on his team than Harrison, but in a similar way, there’s less on Odunze in Year 3 with two second-year targets, wide reeeiver Luther Burden III and tight end Colston Loveland being trusted options for Willlans. The biggest development for Odunze so far is showing no lingering effects of the tough foot injury he battled last season.

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Burden can be moved around from «Z» to make big plays outside with the versatility to be effective as the «Y» from the slot with D.J. Moore gone. Loveland also should keep stretching the middle of the field. Everything points to Odunze breaking out all-around in 2026, even if he would see less targets than Burden and Loveland.

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J.J. McCarthy, QB, Vikings (No. 10 overall)

McCarthy doesn’t have a knee injury concern anymore like Penix, but his veteran retread QB competition is much stronger in Kyler Murray. McCarthy had nowhere to go but up in improving his accuracy and downfield passing and also has show some signs of maturity in leading the team. But he’s also been working well behind Murray, who has been a quick study in Kevin O’Connell’s offense.

McCarthy might get a longer look should Murray get hurt or fall flat, but he already feels like a lame bust. While Williams aligns more with Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Bo Nix, McCarthy is headed to join Penix as a bust pick.

Dallas Turner, EDGE, Vikings (No. 17 overall)

The good news for the Vikings is that all is not lost from 2023 draft first rounder. The promising play of Turner in his second season made the team feel more comfortable in saving some cap space and trading edge rusher Jonathan Greenard, who replaced Danielle Hunter, to the Eagles. Turner had 8 sacks in starting 10 of 17 games in his second season.

They expect him to build on that and a strong training camp to break out as a double-digit sack artist under Brian Flores. Turner is been counted on for plenty of production opposite active playmaker Andrew Van Ginkel. 

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Chop Robinson, EDGE, Dolphins (No. 21 overall)

The Dolphins are in defensive rebuild mode under former Packers coordinator Jeff Hafley. Robinson needs to be a cornerstone pass rusher in that process. He has wasted no time impressing the new coaching staff with flashes of dominance in camp. Robinson had six sacks to stand out all-around as a rookie before fading a bit with his situational contributions in 2025. Robinson has a high ceiling for Halfey, who took full advantage of another former Penn State star, Micah Parsons, in Green Bay.

Brian Thomas Jr, WR, Jaguars (No. 23 overall)

Thomas had a spectacular rookie season before being a major disappointment in Year 2, despite the rest of the passing game thriving thanks to arrival of coach Liam Coen leading the offense for Trevor Lawrence. Had rookie Travis Hunter not gotten injured after a big Week 7 in London against the Rams, it could have been worse for Thomas.

It was bad enough for him that he couldn’t get going in Coen’s scheme to the point the team got more impact from midseason trade acquisition Jakobi Meyers and Lawrence favorite Parker Washington. Washington (Y or slot) and Meyers (Z) are set in their reliable route-running roles. In a similar situation to Harrison and Odunze, Thomas will need to lean on his big-play — both field-stretching and after the catch — to his restore his impact. If not, he would be a stronger candidate to be moved before the trade deadline.

Jordan Morgan, OT, Packers (No. 25 overall)

The Packers chose not to re-sign former starting left tackle Rasheed Walker in free agency with Morgan waiting to take over opposite Zach Tom. At 6-5, 311, the Arizona need a couple years to develop. He is impressing in camp to feel good about the improved pass protection for Jordan Love. Although the results won’t be official until he is keeping Love clean from the top edge rushers in the NFC North, Morgan is trending toward a star turn.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs (No. 28 overall)

Worthy was bothered by an early shoulder injury to derail his promising second season after putting up big stats in the Super Bowl 59 loss to the Eagles. He is dealing with another shoulder woe in camp, but there’s still hope he can live up to his speedy big-play ability working off Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce for Patrick Mahomes.

There cannot be a letdown for Worthy with rookie fifth-rounder Cyrus Allen smashing in camp (before he also was slowed by injury). For now, the opening 11 personnel in Week 1 has Worthy opposite Tyquan Thornton with Rice in slot. Worthy has tantalized as a big-play threat but needs to put it all together to live up to his high pick.

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