Macau Casino GGR Seen Recovering In August And September After World Cup Drag

Seaport Research Partners says that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will grow year-on-year in August, with even greater growth in September. The analysts of Seaport believe that business activity will normalize due to the disturbance caused by the FIFA World Cup 2026, which negatively affected the gaming business in July.

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July Softness Tied To Tournament And Weather

Macau generated MOP20.26 billion, or US$2.51 billion, in casino GGR in July, according to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. That was 8.4% lower than a year earlier, although it was 9.4% higher than June.

This July’s underperformance was attributed to the football tournament by analysts, stating that it lowered the demand in Macau, especially for the premium-mass and VIP segments. According to Seaport’s memo released on Sunday, the business volume showed improvement in the latter part of July following the end of the tournament on July 19.

Moreover, the brokerage stated that although the demand was slightly impacted by Typhoon Noul, which made its way north of Hong Kong during the weekend of July 25-26, the overall market was beginning to recover from the impact of the football tournament.

August And September Forecasts

According to senior analyst Vitaly Umansky, Seaport expects the 4.5% increase in August GGR year-on-year, driven by the customers who have postponed their visits during the World Cup. He also expects the 11% year-on-year increase in September GGR.

The brokerage estimates Macau’s August GGR at about MOP23.16 billion, which would translate to average daily revenue of MOP747 million. It also sees third-quarter GGR rising 1.8% year-on-year and fourth-quarter GGR increasing 3.2%.

Seaport’s latest outlook suggests the market could regain momentum after a softer July, with sequential trends already improving once the football tournament ended. The firm said the return of deferred demand should help support the next 2 months.

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Support From Liquidity And Policy

Seaport said easier liquidity conditions and visa policies should continue to support higher-end gaming demand. It also pointed to a stronger renminbi, saying the currency had helped improve customer liquidity.

Those factors, the brokerage argued, could provide a more favourable backdrop for Macau’s premium segments as the market moves through the second half of the year. The forecast is based on the view that demand conditions will improve once the temporary World Cup effect fully clears.

Risks Still Remain

Despite the more optimistic outlook, Seaport cautioned that several risks remain. These include the state of China’s economy, possible restrictions on money flows or travel to Macau, and the potential for adverse weather events.

The brokerage also said Macau’s overnight base-mass segment continues to lag pre-pandemic levels. Even so, it noted that any recovery in that customer segment could add further upside to GGR growth.

For now, Seaport’s view is that Macau is likely to move back into year-on-year growth in August before posting a stronger result in September, as the market continues to adjust after the World Cup-related disruption.

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Source: GGR Asia