Ireland’s Gambling Regulator Targets Prediction Market Operator With Legal Threat
Ireland’s gambling regulator has warned that High Court action could be taken against a major prediction market firm operating in the country.
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Anne Marie Caulfield, head of the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI), told RTÉ’s This Week that the company is “one of the largest prediction market operators in the world who was operating here in Ireland,” though she declined to name it.
Caulfield explained that in most cases where the regulator has stepped in, sites have withdrawn voluntarily. “For the vast majority of cases where we’ve intervened, they [global prediction market companies] have withdrawn their sites,” she said. “But in the instance where they don’t do so, we can go to the High Court and get a blocking order for them, a blocking order for access to the site and also in relation to the funding involved.”
While no operator was mentioned, the country began an inquiry into Polymarket over a cluster of unusual wagers tied to Dublin’s by-election. Several accounts on the platform traded on candidate Gerry Hutch losing the race, with the trading patterns being tagged abnormal by analysts and forcing an investigation by the Irish financial and gambling authorities.
“We are standing up our compliance regime”
The GRAI has already issued warning letters, and one well-known operator has geoblocked Ireland following contact from the regulator.
The regulator begun issuing licenses this month, taking over the role from Revenue. Caulfield described the process as “onerous,” noting that companies are vetted for financial stability, data protection, and consumer safeguards.
The regulator will oversee remote gambling this year and expand to gaming platforms in 2027. “Once those sectors are licensed with us, a whole swathe of protections start to stand up in terms of consumers,” Caulfield said. These protections include tools for players to set limits and a ban on credit card use.
She stressed that operators who fail to meet requirements face heavy penalties. “If any of the operators are not adhering to the legislative requirements, it’s open to us to impose fines of up to €20m, 10% of their turnover or to revoke part of their license, to suspend their license, to take their license back from them entirely,” she said.
Calling the new rules “sweeping powers” and “a fundamental overhaul of the existing system,” Caulfield added, “We are standing up our compliance regime in order to go out and to inspect and to make sure that is happening.”
Prediction markets continue to face rejection across Europe
Regulators across Europe have stepped up action against prediction market platforms, arguing they are running products without the proper gambling or financial licenses. Polymarket, which gained prominence during US elections and global political events, has been singled out repeatedly.
In Czechia, authorities ordered internet providers to block Polymarket altogether, citing unlicensed gambling. France’s gambling authority also recently ordered internet providers to block Polymarket.
Earlier this month, the Dutch regulator also dismissed an appeal from the company, keeping its classification under gambling law. Spain has gone further, halting operations for both Polymarket and Kalshi over missing licenses.
In Italy, its sponsorship deal with football club S.S. Lazio drew political attention after Democratic Party lawmakers pressed ministers to examine whether the partnership broke advertising and gambling rules.
While Ireland’s regulator does not yet have the power to enforce geoblocking directly, Caulfield said they are working with Coimisiún na Meán to gain “trusted flagger status,” which would allow suspected non‑compliant sites to be removed.
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