Japan Builds a Legal Workaround to Prediction Markets With Loyalty Points Instead of Bets
Prediction markets exploded into crypto’s mainstream by proving that almost any future event can be turned into a tradable opinion. Elections, sporting events, celebrity behavior — if enough people care about it, someone will price it.
That formula works in many jurisdictions. In Japan, it runs into a wall.
The country’s gambling rules leave little room for platforms built around monetary stakes, forcing companies interested in prediction markets to experiment with something very different. Rather than allowing users to wager money or crypto assets, a handful of Japanese firms are turning forecasting into a rewards game.
POYP has become one of the more visible examples. The company describes its service as a blend of prediction markets and point accumulation. Users make forecasts on politics, sports and cultural topics, collecting coins when they are right. Wrong answers carry no financial penalty.
The appeal is obvious. If there is no money being deposited, traded or withdrawn, operators can argue that users are participating in an engagement platform rather than gambling.
Others are taking a similar path. IGS operates a forecasting service known as Signals, while NERO YOSO is working to integrate prediction functions into LINE, a messaging platform so deeply embedded in Japanese daily life that comparisons with WhatsApp only tell part of the story.
Building Around the Rules
Interest in the concept has begun spreading beyond startups.
Gaming company Gumi Group said in late 2025 that it was studying the commercial potential of a compliant prediction market supported by artificial intelligence and blockchain technology. Reports indicate the company is exploring a structure in which prediction activity and rewards remain clearly separated.
That distinction may seem technical, but in Japan it matters. Regulators often assess the movement of value across an entire system, not simply whether a user sees a cash balance on a screen.
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Meanwhile, Polymarket has not given up on entering the market.
The platform has appointed Mike Eidlin, who is associated with the Jupiter ecosystem, as its representative in Japan and is reportedly pursuing official approval by 2030. That remains a long-term objective rather than an immediate possibility.
The legal uncertainty is still apparent. In June 2026, crypto exchange Bitbank warned customers that involvement with prediction platforms could result in account restrictions, citing potential conflicts with gambling laws. The message served as a reminder that participation in overseas markets is not necessarily viewed as harmless by domestic financial institutions.
What is emerging in Japan looks less like a conventional betting exchange and more like an online participation economy. Platforms are experimenting with advertising, loyalty programs and third-party rewards instead of transaction fees generated by traders risking capital.
Whether that model can produce reliable forecasting signals is another question.
Traditional prediction markets depend heavily on incentives. People who have money at stake tend to research more, think harder and adjust their views when new information arrives. A points-based system may attract plenty of participants, but convincing them to care deeply about the outcome could prove more difficult.
For now, Japan appears to be carving out its own category — not quite gambling, not quite finance, and certainly not a copy of the crypto prediction markets that have gained traction elsewhere.
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Source: cryptobriefing.com
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