Trump Jr.’s Early Kalshi Equity Grant Has Ballooned as Prediction Market’s Valuation Soars
Donald Trump Jr. received an equity stake in prediction market operator Kalshi worth roughly $300,000 after joining the company as a strategic adviser early last year, according to people familiar with the arrangement. He reportedly paid nothing for the shares, securing an interest in the privately held business at a time when it was valued below $2 billion.
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That decision has since become far more significant. Kalshi’s rapid rise has pushed its valuation to about $22 billion following a recent fundraising round, leaving Trump Jr. with a substantial paper gain despite his ownership percentage shrinking as new shares were issued.
The company is now exploring another capital raise that could value it at roughly $40 billion as early as the third quarter, reflecting the extraordinary growth of prediction markets since the 2024 U.S. election.
Prediction Markets Ride Post-Election Momentum
Kalshi allows users to trade on the likelihood of real-world events, ranging from political developments to major sporting outcomes. Interest in the platform accelerated after traders on Kalshi and rival Polymarket accurately anticipated Donald Trump’s election victory before many traditional news organizations called the race.
Prediction markets have continued attracting billions of dollars in monthly trading activity, with sports contracts accounting for much of the volume. That shift has prompted legal challenges from several U.S. states, which argue the platforms are effectively operating as sports betting businesses.
Regulatory Climate Shifts
Kalshi’s expansion has unfolded alongside a regulatory climate viewed as considerably more accommodating than in previous years. Federal agencies led by Trump administration appointees have taken a lighter approach toward prediction markets, easing pressure on companies operating in the sector.
Before the presidential election, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sought to block Kalshi from offering contracts tied to congressional elections. The company prevailed in court shortly before voters went to the polls, and the regulator later abandoned its appeal in 2025.
Federal authorities also ended an investigation into whether Polymarket had improperly accepted bets from U.S. customers while the platform was officially limited to overseas users.
The industry’s broader regulatory direction remains contested. Last week, CME Group filed suit against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission after the agency approved perpetual cryptocurrency futures contracts. Kalshi entered that market in late May, further expanding beyond its core event-based offerings.
Trump Jr.’s Expanding Business Portfolio
Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a strategic adviser in January 2025, only weeks after his father returned to the White House. At the time, he publicly praised prediction markets, arguing they had provided a more accurate picture of the election than conventional media coverage and describing the company’s broader mission as one he wanted to support.
His role at Kalshi adds to a growing list of business interests linked to industries that could benefit from policies pursued by the current administration. Together with his brother Eric Trump, he has also helped assemble a $1 billion investment vehicle through a New York brokerage that has directed capital toward drone manufacturers and cryptocurrency businesses. He additionally holds a minority interest in online firearms retailer GrabAGun and became a strategic adviser to a mixed martial arts organization in late 2024.
Trump Jr. also serves on the advisory board of Polymarket. Around the same time he accepted that position, investment firm 1789 Capital, where he is a partner, disclosed a strategic investment in the company without revealing its size.
Company Declines Comment
Kalshi declined to comment on the reported details of Trump Jr.’s equity grant, while representatives for Trump Jr. did not respond to requests for comment.
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Source: ft.com
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