Offshore Prediction Markets Push Into Australian Politics

Money has started flowing through a strange new corner of online gambling where people are not just wagering on elections or interest rates, but on whether the Australian prime minister will say certain words in parliament.

One recent market asked users to predict if Anthony Albanese would mention terms like Iran, Trump, TAFE or tax cuts during question time. Around US$13,000 was traded on that alone.

The market sat on Kalshi, one of several American prediction trading platforms rapidly expanding into politics, economics, sport and culture. Its rival, Polymarket, has already drawn hundreds of thousands of dollars in trading linked to Australian events despite neither platform being licensed here.

Polymarket users pushed nearly US$500,000 through contracts tied to the Farrer byelection. Kalshi handled close to US$100,000 on the same race. Other markets have focused on Reserve Bank decisions, unemployment figures and whether Albanese will still be prime minister by the end of the year.

A Different Kind of Gambling

The platforms do not look much like traditional betting sites at first glance. Users buy and sell shares tied to outcomes rather than placing bets with a bookmaker. Prices move with sentiment and demand. The companies frame the products more like financial exchanges than gambling operations.

That distinction has not reassured everyone.

Martin Thomas from the Alliance for Gambling Reform said the growth of these markets in the United States had happened fast enough that Australian regulators risked falling behind before they fully understood what they were dealing with.

The concern is not only about gambling losses. Some markets are so specific and thinly traded that questions around manipulation start appearing quickly. Political speech, central bank decisions, parliamentary moments — events that normally sit outside sports betting markets — are now being turned into tradeable contracts.

Responsible Wagering Australia, which represents licensed gambling operators, has also started warning about integrity risks and the lack of oversight attached to offshore platforms operating beyond Australian rules.

Regulators Are Paying Attention

The Australian Communications and Media Authority already moved against Polymarket last year, directing internet providers to block access after determining the site was offering unlicensed gambling services.

Kalshi has geoblocked Australian users and says residents here are prohibited from trading on the platform. The company insists it has no trading activity in Australia and no current plans to seek approval locally.

Regulators know the barrier is porous. VPNs make geoblocking relatively easy to bypass, something the communications authority openly acknowledges.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has also been monitoring the rise of prediction markets in the US. The agency views the contracts as speculative, high-risk products and notes that no operator currently holds an Australian market licence.

The Rules Haven’t Caught Up

Federal wagering reforms are expected to expand powers allowing authorities to block illegal gambling websites and restrict transactions to prohibited operators. Whether that will meaningfully slow prediction markets is another question.

Part of the difficulty is that these sites sit awkwardly between finance and gambling. They borrow language and structures from trading platforms while behaving, in practice, a lot like betting exchanges.

And unlike conventional sportsbooks, prediction markets can turn almost anything into a wager.

An election result. A rate rise. A celebrity album release. The weather in Los Angeles. A sentence spoken in Canberra.

Offshore Prediction Markets Push Into Australian Politics

A Different Kind of Gambling

Regulators Are Paying Attention

The Rules Haven’t Caught Up

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