Macau Gaming Margins Stay Tight as Seaport Sees Slower Growth Ahead
According to Seaport Research Partners, the mass-market gross gaming revenues in Macau grew the fastest during the first quarter since the third quarter of 2024. However, the company noted that margins in the casino industry were under pressure. At the same time, according to Seaport, the early-year results for the market outperformed expectations despite the slowdown in the growth rate for the whole year of 2026.
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First-Quarter Performance
From the figures provided by the administration, the GGR rise recorded in the first quarter of 2026 saw an increase of 14.4% from the figure in the respective period last year. On the other hand, the quarter-to-quarter metric fell by 0.3%. According to the Seaport senior analyst Vitaly Umansky, the overall result was positive and better than expected, and this was the best mass growth since the third quarter of 2024.
The data provided by the authorities revealed that mass baccarat gaming revenues during the first three months of the year of 2026 increased by 6.5% year-on-year, reaching the mark of MOP34.32 billion ($4.26 billion). On the other hand, Quarter-on-quarter mass baccarat gaming revenues rose only by 0.9%.
As Seaport revealed, the overall EBITDA growth rate year-on-year is likely to be 9%; however, the EBITDA margin will decrease by 30 basis points. That gap between revenue growth and profitability kept attention on operating pressure in the sector.
Cost Pressure
In a Tuesday memo, Umansky said cost increases in 2026 are expected to be more modest than in 2025, with operating expenditure growth likely to land in the 6% to 7% range. Even so, he said player reinvestment and agent commissions remain high, and he does not see any improvement in the market in the near to medium term.
Additionally, he added that it is more probable that things will stabilize and not improve. The reason behind this prediction is that despite the activity of the market, it is now more challenging to gain traction within it without affecting the bottom line.
Growth Expectations
Umansky noted that the second-quarter comparison to the prior year period will be tough on its year-on-year basis starting in May. He expects Macau to experience a significant deceleration in growth in the remainder of 2026. As growth eases, he said that market share gains, cost control, and better management of player reinvestment and commissions will become more important.
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The analyst’s comments suggest the market has already moved into a more measured phase after the stronger first-quarter performance. While the opening months of the year gave the industry a solid start, Seaport does not expect that pace to hold through the remainder of 2026.
Operator Breakdown
Seaport highlighted operators that did well during the first quarter. According to the analyst, Sands China Ltd experienced the highest year-on-year top-line revenue increase during the quarter. The next most successful player was Wynn Macau Ltd.
The analysts estimate Sands China, Wynn Macau Ltd, and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd posted the highest increases in year-on-year EBITDA during the quarter. These estimations reflect an industry in which a few successful operators benefit from their positions in terms of scale and competitive advantages despite the overall margin pressure.
More Measured Year
The first-quarter’s growth in the mass segment provided a better-than-expected start for 2026. However, Seaport had a more pessimistic message about the performance of the industry for the rest of the year.
For Macau operators, that means the focus is shifting from broad-based recovery to tighter execution. With player reinvestment still elevated and commission levels staying high, Seaport sees a market that is growing, but at a pace that is likely to be more restrained for the balance of the year.
Source: GGR Asia
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