By 2028, Unlicensed Operators Will Surpass UK-regulated Gambling Advertising

Based on the new study released on April 21 by the World Advertising Research Center, in the next year and a half, the UK’s black-market operators will surpass the regulated market in advertisement spending. The prediction comes one day before MPs are due to discuss how the new legal environment is changing the advertising business during a planned Westminster Hall debate on gambling ads in Parliament.

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The Gambling Commission is in the middle of a leadership shift when a crossing point happens

According to WARC’s analysis, the amount spent on illegal gambling advertisements will increase from £844.7 million in 2025-2026 to £934.2 million in 2026-2027, surpassing £1 billion by 2028. In contrast, it is anticipated that regulated UK operators will reduce their advertising costs by 9.2% in 2025-2026 and by an additional 2.6% to £1 billion in 2026-2027.

Research discoveries

“WARC research has found that there is a two-speed market at play, with nearly all growth now being influenced by the unregulated market, even though ad spend within the UK’s gambling industry is set to rise to £1.9 billion this year, the intelligence company stated in its research release. “These operators, who are primarily based abroad, are paying overly increased budgets to reach UK users online through social media and search”.

The anticipated 2028 overtaking was described by WARC as “a sign of the structural shift currently happening in the market”. Furthermore, a quicker transition in sponsorship spending was highlighted by the study. As early as 2026-2027, WARC predicts that over half of gambling advertising spending will be generated by unregulated businesses.

The total amount spent on gambling sponsorship increased from £158 million in 2019-2020 to approximately £260 million in 2026-2027. The share of regulated enterprises peaked in 2021-2022 and has since decreased. The research was done on the website of the Betting and Gaming Council, a trade association and standards body for the UK gambling industry. Chief executive Grainne Hurst responded, describing the results as a “turning point where illegal operators overtake licensed companies in advertising spend, fundamentally reshaping what users see”.

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Hurst stated that the change “should ring bells in Westminster” in a statement that supported the research. She also added, “The real question is whether advertising is coming from regulated operators, who are held to strict standards, or from the harmful, illegal black market, which operates entirely outside the rules”.

Pressure in the UK

The study arrives at a time when UK-licensed operators are under a lot of regulatory pressure. On April 1, the Remote Gaming Duty increased from 21% to 40%, and starting in April 2027, the Remote Betting Duty is expected to rise from 15 to 25%. In November 2025, the Office for Budget Responsibility calculated that the tax adjustments, together with larger return losses from demand substitution and operator price pass-through, would push an extra £500 million in gambling activity to the black market. The proposed affordability checks, which the BGC has also warned will drive customers to unregulated providers, are the subject of an ongoing disagreement that is made worse by the tax reforms.

The black market share in the UK

Unlicensed operators already make up about 9% of the £8.2 billion UK internet gambling sector, according to separate data by the Campaign for Fairer Gambling and Yield Sec, which was published in January 2026. At a BGC Industry event this year, Chris Sanger, Global Government Tax Leader at EY, stated that the unlawful market has increased from 0.5% of the legal market “a few years ago” to 10-12% at the moment.

With CEO Andrew Rhodes scheduled to retire on April 30 and deputy Sarah Gardner taking over as acting CEO, the UK Gambling Commission is managing the mid-transition transfer. In the November 2025 budget, the government allowed an extra £26 million to the Commission’s black market taskforce.

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Source: news.bitcoin.com