AFL 2026 Brownlow Medal predictor: Nick Daicos and Zak Butters lead the pack

It’s the AFL’s most prestigious individual award, named in honour of Charles ‘Chas’ Brownlow, and there isn’t any shortage of potential winners in 2026.

Read more Holmes injury revealed in wake of Latrell masterclass

After missing the start of the season, defending champion Matt Rowell starts at a considerable disadvantage, but polled his first votes in our count in round six against Essendon.

However, he’s a long way back of our two frontrunners, Nick Daicos and Zak Butters, who both dethroned Marcus Bontempelli on the mantle. 

Harry Sheezel sits just one vote behind the pair, while Bont, our previous leader, is tied with Bailey Smith and Clayton Oliver, just two votes back of Daicos and Butters.

The Sporting News is predicting which players will poll in this year’s Brownlow count for every game of the 2026 season. Read on for the full leaderboard, round-by-round polling and club-by-club leaders.

MORE: Coleman Medal leaderboard 2026: Ben King still ahead of Jack Gunston

SORT BY ROUND: OR | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6

BROWNLOW LEADERBOARD BY TEAM

Season Leaderboard 

Round 6

Notes

• Coming soon

Round 5

Notes

• Rachele finishes with 26 and four, so not much more needs to be said there. Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps had enormous first terms, but both faded away in the ensuing three quarters, whereas players such as Dawson and Berry stood taller and helped propel the Crows to victory. 
• One of the stranger games of the season means the votes could go a multitude of different ways. Jackson handedly won the ruck battle against Darcy Cameron, was clutch in the ruck in the Dockers’ defensive 50 in the dying minutes, and had to work overtime with Sean Darcy concussed. Ryan found plenty of it, used it well and still finished with six intercept possessions. Daicos found more of it than anyone, but butchered it a fair bunch. 
• A massive final term from Neale helps lifts the Lions.  
• 42 disposals from Roberts will be hard to beat. Even with fewer disposals, Parish had arguably better the day — 34 disposals and 13 score involvements!! Kako showed a lot of what makes Kozzie Pickett so brilliant. Apart from when Koz ran him down, he was very elusive in the forward half of the ground and kept a plethora of chances alive for the Bombers, and even got on the end of a couple himself.
• Heeney had arguably the best performance of the round. McInerney has to be an early contender for the unofficial ‘Most Improved Player’ award — 27 disposals, 12 score involvements, 480 metres gained and a goal on the weekend, sheesh. 
• The fact that Ginnivan didn’t get three votes here should say it all about how good Newcombe was. The midfielder finished with 14 clearances and a goal. But with every week that passes, Collingwood fans must be finding it harder to cope with the fact that they gave Ginnivan away for nothing. 28 disposals, 10 score involvements and a goal is a great night by anyone’s standard, but the underrated part is that he finished with five goal assists, just the eighth time since the start of the 2025 season that a player has recorded that many in a single game. Is it a hot take to say he is in better form than everyone at Collingwood not named Nick Daicos? Honourable mention to Mitch Lewis for his game against the Dogs, but he just gets squeezed out of a vote by Moore.
• Baz was just taking the p*ss against the Eagles, I’m sorry. 34 disposals, 13 score involvement and a goal? WTF. Atkins edges out Holmes despite four fewer disposals. Did more work in the contest, had two more score involvements, and laid 11 tackles as oppose to two. 
• Callaghan will be the popular pick for the three votes here, and it’s not hard to see why. But on this side we place extra value on the moments where the game is won and loss. And the Giants won the game in the first quarter, quickly building a 38-point lead by quarter time. Oliver has seven score involvements and a goal assist from 10 disposals in the first quarter alone, while Callaghan had 11 disposals but three fewer score involvements and the same amount of goal assists. Yes, it’s pedantic. Yes, we’re splitting hairs. Sorry, not sorry.
• Wanganeen-Milera finally starting to play himself into the form that made him the biggest earner in football this season. Butters was very much in the conversation for three here, but the cynic in me wonders if he’ll even poll after the whole Nick Foot drama… Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

Round 4

Notes

• Ashcroft and Bailey stood head and shoulders above the rest on Thursday night, leading with 11 score involvements each in a pumping win. Even if Nick Daicos played, he would’ve found it tough to poll against this Brisbane outfit.
• On the contrary, no one necessarily took the Roos-Blues game by the horns, but there were a lot of good contributors, especially from a North Melbourne perspective. Sheezel was one of the most consistent players on the night, and had ice in his veins as he delivered a clutch goal. The recruit of Luke Parker is aging better by the day, what about his deadeye kick to Paul Curtis in the fourth quarter?
• Two teams you expect to feature in September this year, with a number of good contributors. Reid and Serong were crucial to the Dockers’ win, especially in the fourth. Worrell was busy down back and stood tall. 
• On most other days Butters’ performance would earn him three votes, but Aliir was a one-man wall against the Tigers — 18 intercept possessions! Enough said.
• I’ll put my hand up, I turned this off in the first quarter. Bravo to anyone that stuck fat through four quarters of that, but what a disappointing Saturday of football. Heeney and Grundy were clearly the most impactful, though.
• Gawn, Pickett and Steele seemed like the obvious three to split the votes between, but just how you split between them was the real dilemma. Splitting hairs, but Gawn dominated Jarrod Witts, disrupted a plethora of forward entries for the Suns in one way another, was following up his own ruck work, and kicked a crucial goal in the third. Pickett himself kicked a big goal in the third, and set up the match-winning goal to his cousin Latrelle in the fourth. Steele was a warrior from beginning to end, and has the started the season sensationally, already looking like the best value recruit of the off-season.
• The game was over in the first quarter, and Bontempelli was by far the most impactful in the first half an hour, with 12 disposals, four score involvements and a goal in the first alone. 
• Hawks-Cats will be hard to beat for match of the season. The skills and execution wasn’t perfect, but it only added to the drama. Gunston earns the three, with his veteran instincts making a massive difference, particularly in the dying moments as he got the match-winning point. Macdonald had a massive second half once he was thrown around the ball, and Ginnivan was working hard both offensively and defensively, creating scores out of the back half for the Hawks and even getting on the end of a couple himself. Bailey Smith found more of the pill than anyone else, but was often not effective when in possession, and was beaten in the biggest moments by Jai Newcombe. 

Round 3

Notes

• A 40-ball for Bailey Smith as well as 10 tackles. Not his most efficient night using the pill, but he was far from the only one. Rachele looked very good in the midfield, and his teammate Josh Worrell was perhaps worthy of a vote too given how he stood up with his defence under siege, but his 11 turnovers from 30 disposals is brutal.
• Far from the most polished Nick Daicos game we’ll see, going at just 55 per cent kicking efficiency. But it was that sort of game, with a lot of players finding plenty of it but not being particularly damaging. Daicos still kicks two important goals in the third quarter when the game was in the balance, and maybe that’s just enough to secure the three. Frampton with one of the best defensive games of his career so far, as him, Darcy Moore, Isaac Quaynor and Jeremy Howe all seemed to be in sync, making it very difficult for the Giants to attack. Oliver did a lot of work in the contested game (37 disposals, 16 contested possessions), making his performance worthy of a mention.
• Not the most highlight-worthy game, but when it was there to be one, Berry and Ashcroft stepped up in the fourth with some massive quarters. Wanganeen-Milera had a good battle with Berry all day, and had the equal-most score involvements between both sides, tying with Zac Bailey.
• Freed from the shackles of a tag, and Serong put together one of the best outings of his career, hitting the scoreboard, being involved in a number of other scores, and not forgetting the defensive part of the game with plenty of tackles. Bolton looks to be in career best form, with another dominant day against his former side.
• Shutting out the other team’s best player and finding a way to still be damaging with the ball yourself makes it an obvious three votes for O’Sullivan. Sheezel accumulated less than last week, but certainly made each touch much more impactful. 
• Reid may have only had the 21 touches against the Power, but it felt like every time he had possession he was impactful, with some important inside-50 entries and nine score involvements. Also kicked two crucial goals in the third and was putting his body on the line. Butters was lively particularly early, and was clearly not 100 per cent in the fourth. Duursma was massive in the second when the Eagles started to get back into the contest, and had some clutch moments in the fourth, too.
• Pickett unbelievably stiff not to get the three votes in Dees-Blues clash after being the real match-winner in the fourth. Lever just a bit more consistent from start to finish, weathering the storm in the first half with lots of Carlton penetration, and helped the Dees rebound out of their defensive 50 in the second half. Gawn still amazing as always in game 250, really got the midfielders such as Pickett, Jack Steele and Tom Sparrow firing on all cylinders in the second half.

Round 2

Notes

• Newcombe and Moore with a pair of very dynamic performances to get the Hawks over the line. Barrass’ effort on Charlie Curnow after quarter time arguably made him the most impactful player on the ground, and perhaps even worthy of more votes.
• Freijah set the tone early but faded in the game’s most important moments, with just one disposal in the fourth quarter. The Crows stormed in front but Bontempelli helped change the tide, being involved in the Bulldogs’ two winning goals to go along with 30 disposals and a goal.
• Christian Petracca looks set for multiple weeks on the sidelines, and with that, it unfortunately looks like one of the early contenders for this year’s count is out of the race. If not, he at least has been put at a genuine disadvantage. A number of Suns could’ve polled here, but Uwland seemed to impact the game going both ways more than anyone else, and 10 intercept possessions, 29 disposals and five score involvements would seemingly reflect that. Seven goals makes it hard to leave off King, and Miller was involved a ton. Spare a thought for Jayden Short though, with 27 kicks and 730 metres gained. The Tigers just not good enough. 
• A win for the Saints, but no one really blowing you away, as they effectively parked the bus after quarter time. Wanganeen-Milera pretty consistent from start to finish, though. Ash finds plenty of it, but of course a lot of that is uncontested, and you would’ve hoped for a bit more effectiveness. This game lacked match-winners from both sides though, and 39 disposals, 774 metres gained, nine score involvements and eight intercept possessions does stand out. Did we forget to tell you the umpires can see stats now?!
• Will go down as one of the more forgettable games of the season, with it all but over within the first 15 minutes. Bolton looks to be at his best, though!
• Port bounce back, and Butters led the way, looking a class above anyone else out there. Horne-Francis did some damage early, and Richards was involved a lot as well.
• One of those weird games where the losing team takes all the votes, but no one from the Eagles really stood out. Most will argue Harley Reid after he posted career highs and certainly showed glimpses of his elite best. But when West Coast took control with 49 points in the third quarter, he only had 11 metres gained and was not a huge part of their attack. Eagle fans, if it makes you feel better, he polled 10 coaches votes so what do I know?! Xerri was best afield with his domination in the ruck and around the ground, and Larkey would have to be asking questions of his teammates after kicking another bag.

Round 1 

Notes

• Hard to champion any Carlton player after that second half. Short had the Tigers storming home with a goal and eight kicks in the final term alone, if only Tom Lynch kicked straight… 
• Essendon packed it up after quarter time, there’s not much else to say when describing this game. Gunston kicked a bag, Watson also got on the end of a few and created a bunch, as did Macdonald.
• Bontempelli is playing like he wants a Brownlow. Did everything around the ground while also kicking a handful of goals, just not as many as Naughton… Ash becomes one of the rare players to poll during an 80-point loss, but 31 disposals at 93.5 per cent efficiency is just chef’s kiss. I’m sorry, I’m a simple man.
• Cameron was everywhere, finding plenty of it and kicking a few himself. That’s usually a recipe to poll. Lot of people loved Max Holmes’ game as he finished with 32 disposals, but just 12 of those came in the second half when the Cats did their best work. Smith, on the other hand, finished with 31 touches, as well as eight disposals and a goal in the fourth quarter alone. Neale kicked a bag and was clutch as well. Caleb Serong is very unlucky, but there were too many good Cats when the game was there to be won.
• What world are we living in when Joel Amartey is making a mockery of the back-to-back defending premiers? Maybe one where Harris Andrews is suspended. Oh well, Amartey was brilliant from start to finish, as was Blakey, and someone needs to study what Justin McInerney did over the off-season. 23 disposals, two goals, seven score involvements? Sheesh
• Unbelievable performance by Milera, imperative to helping the Crows across the line. Superb Daicos performance, but he was largely unsupported going forward, and Neale-Bullen was at his quintessential best. Accumulated plenty of it but also did a number of little things and set up his teammates superbly. 
• Real wrestle for the three votes between Stephens and Sheezel, but the former Swan just wins out. Davies-Uniacke did a lot of the dirty work inside the contest meanwhile.
• van Rooyen made Anthony Caminiti look local level in the first half, kicking five and still being lively in the second half en route to a bag of six. Hall was consistent from start to finish and almost singlehandedly got the four points for the Saints. Maybe he would’ve, if it weren’t for Max Gawn, who controlled the entire game in the fourth quarter all on his own, making the most expensive ruckman in the league, Tom De Koning, also look local level.
• Three goals in the first quarter from Petracca is borderline offensive to Melbourne fans, but wow we forgot how amazing he is when his kicking is consistent. 14 score involvements is also just absurd. From 2021-2023 he was amongst the leaders in the Brownlow count, and he looks to be a genuine chance this year. We also forget he polled 16 votes in half a season in 2024, too.

Opening Round 

Notes

• McInerney polling three votes was one thing no one saw coming, but he lifted massively in the third term. Gulden reminds us why he’s one of the best players in the competition when healthy, as did Walsh, although it wasn’t a happy ending for his side.
• New colours, new Christian Petracca? Or should we say, old Christian Petracca? The chef looked to be back to his peak best, and he certainly tortured Geelong in the past when he was wearing red and blue. 
• BREAKING: Jake Stringer is leading the Brownlow (it’s a five-way tie…)! Jokes aside it was an unreal showing by the former Bomber, and his new mate Clayton Oliver looked pretty good in his new colours, too. Not a bad start to the season for former Melbourne superstars (sorry Dees fans).
• After a drama-filled off-season, Lachie Neale put all that behind him with a strong start to 2026. But… the jokes do write themselves. There is no doubt the umpires will be licking their lips seeing L. Neale had 39 disposals. To be fair, it would be a deserved three votes for the two-time previous winner of the award. Richards was huge though for the actual winning side, as was Bontempelli, who attacked the goals and was impactful every time he touched it.
• The runner-up of last year’s count — and his club’s B&F counts, oops — Nick Daicos is looking to go one better in 2026. I would say this is one of the better performances of his career, but he’s had so many already that that feels like too bold a call. His brother wasn’t too bad either.

Brownlow leaderboard by team